Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[j6Lpi429@3j]

From a mercedes EQC review:

"To make sure it behaves in the same protective way in a crash, it even has steel-tube replicas of the combustion car’s engine block and gearbox housing, except here they mostly enclose fresh air rather than pistons and gears."
OMG. This is an embarrassing level of failing to compete... WHo the hell would buy that?

Mercedes-Benz EQC

 

[Singuy]

My understanding is that a strong motivation of the Chinese government is to reduce then eliminate oil imports, China has limited domestic reserves mainly in the south China sea and perhaps in disputed locations claimed by multiple countries..

So the government are going to set the rules heavily in favour of EVs then if those rules don't work make the rules even more in favour of EVs,

There will be some young people with reasonable jobs or families on the rise, so the portion of the Chinese population that can afford a car will continue to grow.. If Tesla gets Robo-taxis working in China, then my guess is, most of the working population can afford car travel.

I'm actually happy that the analyst is conservative, and has raised well informed doubts where he has good knowledge, and steered clear of making predictions where he has no knowledge. So I am sure he can easily defend his target and his target is credible. As is target is south of the current market price that is all that matters... As the situation changes, I expect him to revise his target.

Robotaxis will not work in China(or at least major cities). There's not enough training in the world that can solve that cluster F. You need a certain skill(actually, more like determination) to drive successfully in these major city. This includes playing chicken with other cars and even bicyclists. In major congestive areas, a game of chicken is being played constantly to the point that "if I hit him then it's his fault" mentality takes over. An autonomous car will just sit idle in these situations(which happens at most intersections)...unless you set the car to actually be very aggressive and shrug if the car actually hits someone.

So I actually refuse to drive in China because I attempt to follow traffic law too much, which will frustrate everyone around me to no end.

 

[mongo]

From a mercedes EQC review:

"To make sure it behaves in the same protective way in a crash, it even has steel-tube replicas of the combustion car’s engine block and gearbox housing, except here they mostly enclose fresh air rather than pistons and gears."
OMG. This is an embarrassing level of failing to compete... WHo the hell would buy that?

Mercedes-Benz EQC

Best case translation: the rigidity of the car relies on the load transfer via the engine and transmission mount points.

 

[Curt Renz]

An alternative that would really set a fire under everyone is a flat pool across all manufacturers. First, say, 1 million EV’s, by any manufacturer, sold get the credit and none after that.

Good point. The government may be reluctant to name a sunset date, since the potential number of credits would be without limit. But a quota on the total number of EVs qualifying, without regard to individual manufacturers, skirts that problem.

The credits go to consumers, not manufacturers. So it is senseless to set limits for each manufacturer. Let the manufacturers decide how quickly they want to produce EVs, and let the consumers choose which ones the want. This should better accomplish a goal of accelerating the transformation to EVs, and then shutting down the credits once that has been accomplished to a reasonable degree.

So those writing their congressmen about the extension of EV credits, might suggest they consider both a sunset date and a production quota related to the combined total of EVs produced. Then pick one.

 

[Beltsbear]

From a mercedes EQC review:

"To make sure it behaves in the same protective way in a crash, it even has steel-tube replicas of the combustion car’s engine block and gearbox housing, except here they mostly enclose fresh air rather than pistons and gears."
OMG. This is an embarrassing level of failing to compete... WHo the hell would buy that?

Mercedes-Benz EQC

What the hell? That’s the best they can do?

 

[Beltsbear]

Good point. The government may be reluctant to name a sunset date, since the potential number of credits would be without limit. But a quota on the total number of EVs qualifying, without regard to individual manufacturers, skirts that problem.

The credits go to consumers, not manufacturers. So it is senseless to set limits for each manufacturer. Let the manufacturers decide how quickly they want to produce EVs, and let the consumers choose which ones the want. This should better accomplish a goal of accelerating the transformation to EVs, and then shutting down the credits once that has been accomplished to a reasonable degree.

So those writing their congressmen about the extension of EV credits, might suggest they consider both a sunset time and a production quota related to the combined total of EVs produced. Then pick one.

Exactly. I am for a $4000 per EV credit for cars that can do 200 epa miles (just including the Taycan

That credit would diminish over time. Maybe $4000 until 2023 then dropping after that. $7000 per car is wasteful now. $4000 off a model 3 would make it a sub $30k car in some states for the sr base car.

 

[jerry33]

From a mercedes EQC review:

"To make sure it behaves in the same protective way in a crash, it even has steel-tube replicas of the combustion car’s engine block and gearbox housing, except here they mostly enclose fresh air rather than pistons and gears."
OMG. This is an embarrassing level of failing to compete... WHo the hell would buy that?

Mercedes-Benz EQC

This says that any EV they make is not designed from the ground up, but just a kludge. It's obvious they believe EVs are just a passing fad and will go away.

 

[JustMe]

Best case translation: the rigidity of the car relies on the load transfer

From a mercedes EQC review:

"To make sure it behaves in the same protective way in a crash, it even has steel-tube replicas of the combustion car’s engine block and gearbox housing, except here they mostly enclose fresh air rather than pistons and gears."
OMG. This is an embarrassing level of failing to compete... WHo the hell would buy that?

Mercedes-Benz EQC

I literally didn’t believe you so I had to read it for myself. The review really shouts minimal effort borderline compliance car. Buyers will be MB loyal owners who are EV novices that feel comfortable in a familiar setting. I really do hope whoever buys this vehicle has a good experience.

There’s just a flood of disappointing news from Tesla-killers this month. I’m actually really surprised at the wholesale level of fail going on here. It’s hard to believe how far behind they are. For sure these companies have the resources to catch up with Tesla and they must have plenty of top notch engineers. If these were sports teams the obvious call would be to fire the managers.

 

[Prunesquallor]

From a mercedes EQC review:

"To make sure it behaves in the same protective way in a crash, it even has steel-tube replicas of the combustion car’s engine block and gearbox housing, except here they mostly enclose fresh air rather than pistons and gears."
OMG. This is an embarrassing level of failing to compete... WHo the hell would buy that?

Mercedes-Benz EQC

It sounds like they took the structural finite-element model of the combustion components and actually built it.

If their customers are so timid toward EVs that the car has to look like (inside and out) and handle like a GLC, why would they buy an EV at all?

 

[jerry33]

If their customers are so timid toward EVs that the car has to look like (inside and out) and handle like a GLC, why would they go EV at all?

They need a compliance car.

 

[HG Wells]

Been browsing the waiting rooms.
Looks like there won't be any to spare.

LR AWD LR AWD Waiting Room
SR+ SR/SR+ Waiting Room
Preformance Performance Waiting Room

 

[Prunesquallor]

They need a compliance car.

Yeah, I really meant why would the customers go EV (clarified wording in my post).
They actually have to sell compliance cars.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Good point. The government may be reluctant to name a sunset date, since the potential number of credits would be without limit. But a quota on the total number of EVs qualifying, without regard to individual manufacturers, skirts that problem.

The credits go to consumers, not manufacturers. So it is senseless to set limits for each manufacturer. Let the manufacturers decide how quickly they want to produce EVs, and let the consumers choose which ones the want. This should better accomplish a goal of accelerating the transformation to EVs, and then shutting down the credits once that has been accomplished to a reasonable degree.

So those writing their congressmen about the extension of EV credits, might suggest they consider both a sunset date and a production quota related to the combined total of EVs produced. Then pick one.

I agree 100%. From the beginning of the current tax credit, I've said they got everything right except the per manufacturer limit. If your goal is to promote EVs, why would you care who is selling them? Just never made any sense to me. I have to wonder how many cars Tesla would have sold if the tax credit would have remained at $7500.

 

[MC3OZ]

Robotaxis will not work in China(or at least major cities). There's not enough training in the world that can solve that cluster F. You need a certain skill(actually, more like determination) to drive successfully in these major city. This includes playing chicken with other cars and even bicyclists. In major congestive areas, a game of chicken is being played constantly to the point that "if I hit him then it's his fault" mentality takes over. An autonomous car will just sit idle in these situations(which happens at most intersections)...unless you set the car to actually be very aggressive and shrug if the car actually hits someone.

So I actually refuse to drive in China because I attempt to follow traffic law too much, which will frustrate everyone around me to no end.

When people say a solution will not work, that usually just means it will take longer.. The government can make some road, lanes and EV Robo-taxi only...And if Robo-taxi have cameras and can automatically report infringements, that is like shooting fish in a barrel (which according to Mythbusters is not actually that easy)

Anyway my main point is the Chinese government wants Tesla and EVs to succeed for a number of reasons.

The main reasons they want Tesla to succeed are:-
1. Help the move away form oil.
2. Allow Chinese EV makers to improve my learning from Tesla.
3. Expose Chinese EV makers to competition from the best, with the aim of becoming 2nd best.

So eventually BBA need to have EV solutions that can compete with Tesla in China, or they will lose market share....

I am aware the Chinese government doesn't always have the total control we in the west imagine it does, but they lay out a long term plan, stick to it and get it done.

 

[Prunesquallor]

...There’s just a flood of disappointing news from Tesla-killers this month. I’m actually really surprised at the wholesale level of fail going on here. It’s hard to believe how far behind they are. For sure these companies have the resources to catch up with Tesla and they must have plenty of top notch engineers. If these were sports teams the obvious call would be to fire the managers.

It’s becoming apparent that the albatross of ICE legacy is having a much worse effect than anticipated. They simply cannot (and/or do not want to) change. The EQC is just the worst example.

If I were a structural engineer working on the EQC, I’d be mortified.

 

[Artful Dodger]

fraud! Alert the SEC!!11oneon!1 Mercedes promised me!

Yeah, Legal advised that promise doesn't apply, due to this previous disclaimer:

"Mercedes-Benz: The Best or Nothing."​

So, a Model Y it is then... Happy New Year!

Cheers!

 

[BornToFly]

From a mercedes EQC review:

"To make sure it behaves in the same protective way in a crash, it even has steel-tube replicas of the combustion car’s engine block and gearbox housing, except here they mostly enclose fresh air rather than pistons and gears."
OMG. This is an embarrassing level of failing to compete... WHo the hell would buy that?

Mercedes-Benz EQC

Wow! Smaller than I-Pace, lots of body roll because it is really heavy and has soft non-adaptive suspension, and 231 WLTP range, which means LESS than 200 EPA. Too bad Audi already used the e-Tron (turd) name, this deserves it more.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Robotaxis will not work in China(or at least major cities). There's not enough training in the world that can solve that cluster F.

I don't think you understand what AI means. If an AI can't do driving in China better and more effectively and safer than a human, then you've failed to build a driving AI. You really think they'll fail? So far as I know, all the experts think they'll succeed and the only argument is over how long it will take. Optimists say a year or two. Pessimists say a decade or two. But you say never.

 

[RFernatt]

It’s becoming apparent that the albatross of ICE legacy is having a much worse effect than anticipated. They simply cannot (and/or do not want to) change. The EQC is just the worst example.

If I were a structural engineer working on the EQC, I’d be mortified.

They want to use existing platforms, factories, staff, etc. since those are sunk costs and that compromises the product since it's not a ground up EV from the start.

If they do attempt a clean sheet EV design, they are limited in their vision of design and build choices so it's implemented in the mold of an ICE even if it doesn't have to be.

Then there is the whole connected device, OTA, AP, software side where they are just babes in the woods.

I don't envy them their choices - choose the form of your destructor!

 

[Singuy]

I don't think you understand what AI means. If an AI can't do driving in China better and more effectively and safer than a human, then you've failed to build a driving AI. You really think they'll fail? So far as I know, all the experts think they'll succeed and the only argument is over how long it will take. Optimists say a year or two. Pessimists say a decade or two. But you say never.

it's not about being "safer". My point was if you drive "safely" in China, you are a terrible driver. You have to drive in an really unsafe way just to get anywhere at all times. So how can Tesla or anyone solve the issue of succeeding at driving in an area where NOT traffic laws determines how one should drive but selfishness/assertiveness is championed.

I'll give you an example.

This one intersection was a totally cluster F. We have 4 lanes of cars trying to squeeze through a 3 lane light. To make matters worst, we had a bunch of bicyclists surrounding all the cars. We just went ahead and inched forward. Everyone was honking. Some guy hit our car while he was on the bike. My aunt yelled at him for not looking.

So in the US. this intersection would have about 12 cars max..but here there were about 20+ cars and about 25 bicyclists all fighting at this intersection. What would AI do in this situation? Because our decision was to just keep going..whoever we hit we yelled at. Oh yeah and forget about lane markings. No cars were in any of them nor can we see any of them since there are just too many things going on.