Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Prunesquallor]

The auto story for tesla for US customers is good now which i think is why there is little change on news of EV subsidy/credit. The main story is the market coming to realization of local Shanghai factory making M3 for local consumption, thus bypassing any trade talk...

The upcoming stories, which will remain without value by the market are FSD-- with its data (data is the new oil), solar rental thus bypassing local utilies, and that pesky 620 mile range truck (and of course super slick roadster with 620 mile range also)-- where is that 620 mile range coming from??!!!

And Giga Berlin. I like that one a lot.

 

[StealthP3D]

Robinhood and many other apps supports fraction shares now, so unit price is not a problem anymore.
Last I heard SP500 weight is based on share price, not market cap...
So, better not split to keep it higher, or, even a reverse split to hack the dis-functional system.

Edit:
What I remembered is apparently wrong:
What Does the S&P 500 Index Measure and How Is It Calculated?
SP500 is market cap weighted.

Unit price is not why I support a stock split (also, as you noted with your edit, your other reason against stock splitting is not valid).

Last time Tesla was at $380 the stock did not split. In fact, around that time didn't Musk say something like "We don't deserve a price this high"? So imagine the message it would send if Tesla, again at $380, announced a stock split. The effect of that alone might trigger the short squeeze of the century. Couple it with a great Q4 and the powder keg is lit!

Stock valuation is more about perception than any analyst will ever admit. And that holds most true on a company growing and innovating as quickly as Tesla.

 

[ZsoZso]

Just a heads-up on an excellent Twitter thread by our own @KarenRei - I'm humbled daily by the intelligence of the posters here and the insight I learn on any number of matters, sometimes even Tesla and investment related!

Nafnlaus on Twitter

And the unroll: Thread by @enn_nafnlaus: "It's recently been in the news that "International Rights Activists", a law firm run by Terry Collingsworth, has sued Google, Microsoft, App […]"

If the intention of the law firm was to sue the largest users of cobalt (regardless of actual sourcing, i.e. whether or not the company buys from Congo where illegal child labour mining is rampant), they have made a huge mistake by omitting the industry that uses the vast majority of cobalt: the gasoline refining industry to remove sulfur from crude oil.

Desulphurisation | Cobalt Institute

MODERATOR EDIT: Response, WARNING and IMPORTANT CORRECTION below: Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable

 

[Nocturnal]

A Sci-Am story long ago about electric cars for grid storage sparked my first interest in electric vehicles and so many other great things, making it my favorite Christmas gift magazine.

I work in Utility company software implementation/development so that's something I've been watching closely for years. The potential for utilities is enormous.

 

[UncaNed]

I bought a bunch of the Jan 2021 $690 calls for under a buck. Now they're going for $7.47 so clearly, people think there is some chance they won't expire worthless. I'm not selling mine just yet although there is a small chance they are at peak value. I didn't buy them to hold to expiration, just to make a nice profit since I suspected Tesla was in a bull phase and they would, at a minimum, increase in value in the near-term. Clearly it's working because they are up over 660%.

When did you buy them that they were under a buck?

 

[lklundin]

i dunno guys. a 5% gain is not the "short squeeze" i was promised. 420 should be the launching point, not the destination. but it may take some time to really make people realize Tesla's true worth.

i mean seriously -- 3 years ago, there were a ton of legitimate risks to factor in when investing in Tesla: the Model 3 was a fantasy. Tesla was a company with a track record of delivering, what, 30,000 cars per year? liquidity was a real concern. was the demand for the Model 3 legitimate? could Tesla could actually build it? could it be build *at a profit*?? would other automakers have their own trump cards up their sleeves, and beat them to market? would mainstream manufacturers chip away at Tesla's EV market share? would this "tesla fad" die out? would build quality and performance live up to expectations? these were all to varying degrees legitimate risks any investor had to factor in to the company's overall value. and over the last three years, Tesla has emphatically demolished these risks! they are delivering 100,000 vehicles per *quarter*, the'yre making money on their cars at a scary margin, every Tesla Killer has been curb stomped, embarrassed, and exposed, PLUS the company has huge Gigafactories now built in China and pending in Germany.

AND THE STOCK PRICE TODAY IS LOWER RIGHT NOW THAN IT WAS ALMOST 3 YEARS AGO WHEN ALL THESE QUESTIONS COULD STILL BE ASKED WITH A STRAIGHT FACE.

yesterday's 7% gain isn't what's nuts. what's nuts is that it isn't trading at several multiples of what it was in 2016.

I will not complain, because this year I moved all my investable funds into TSLA quadrupling my exposure to a level that at times seemed scary - also because everyone was telling me I was crazy.

Now I have less doubts...

PS. It was fitting that yesterday the local, four stall AC-charger was occupied by my own Model 3, one other Model 3, an S and an X - given that I am located in Munich, the heartland of BMW - and to some extent Audi.

 

[anthonyj]

ALRIGHT

Which one of you sold 6.9m worth of $420 puts that expire on 6/19?

 

[AudubonB]

Ask him if those things are guaranteed ways to invest, why are fund managers, the highest paid financial professionals with the best education possible and access to entire teams to research for them, unable to beat the market return in the long run?

If you want to be snarky, ask him if on average he has out performed the market (with proof) and why he hasn't retired

Planting the above question and comment so that I can re-find and return to it with a reasoned - and personal - response at a time not only more appropriate but when I'm also not so bogged down with pre-holiday chores.

To be continued.....

 

[StealthP3D]

Hilarious. Jim Cramer talking about Tesla 15min after the open... the other two kept trying to laugh it off and change the subject! (and the graphics staff kept putting up other companies) But Jim Cramer kept bringing the subject back to Tesla, he's acting like a total fanboy! Amazing.

Obviously, he's been sneaking his wife's Tesla out for impromptu joyrides. You can guess it's the Performance version. He feels like a kid again! I thought the money couldn't increase happiness. Then I discovered Tesla!

 

[SOULPEDL]

In electroacoustics, this is called ringing -- happens after a fast transient, in substandard circuits.
Oh, that would be analogous thinking, sorry.

Ringing occurs in many fields of science, motion control included. No damping with $TSLA, emo-schizo like. Damping will occur with TSLA's S&P inclusion. Today, system feedback is clear but mixed with a lot of signal noise from Shorts and "The Deplorables." (Remember them?)

SP is holding despite Trump's rejection of the EV tax credit extension. That's odd... as if no one was really concerned with EV sales in Q1 to begin with, begging the question, why weren't we here before now? I think this is just plain computer buying where direction and speed is everything, no matter the story. Just like a car fire or FSD accident triggers a drop in SP without recovery once the news is already out there and debunked. Media story momentum you could call it.

Also thinking a GM bailout is going to follow given that they need the tax discounts more than anyone (Both GM and Tesla were expiring soon from the EV tax credit). Now this gives Ford an EV edge really, and maybe that's the silent lobbyist in Trump's ear?

 

[UncaNed]

Unit price is not why I support a stock split (also, as you noted with your edit, your other reason against stock splitting is not valid).

Last time Tesla was at $380 the stock did not split. In fact, around that time didn't Musk say something like "We don't deserve a price this high"? So imagine the message it would send if Tesla, again at $380, announced a stock split. The effect of that alone might trigger the short squeeze of the century. Couple it with a great Q4 and the powder keg is lit!

Stock valuation is more about perception than any analyst will ever admit. And that holds most true on a company growing and innovating as quickly as Tesla.

IIRC, Last time Tesla raised capital the stock price also took off. Wish they'd do that again to build Semi/Cybertruck factory.

 

[davecolene0606]

I'm surprised it's not dropping now that it's out that the EV subsidy extension for the 200K+ club failed to pass.

Actually, the lack of an incentive is just a deeper moat. Product stands on its own. Elon has stated in the pass the tax break is sort of a crutch anyway. Additionally, uncertainty has been removed from buying decisions and in fact now that price increases are being introduced and competition is NOT materializing, buying decisions just got easier and should become apparent in Q1.

Fire Away!
“It’s the batteries stupid!”

 

[Drumheller]

sad face...

View attachment 489193

Whoa, leave some for the rest or us!

 

[Nocturnal]

You had to say that...

errr, looks like it DOESN'T want to go over 400.

(reverse psychology works for stocks right?)

 

[dhrivnak]

So, would you say you belong to the Forrest Gump School of Investing?



I gotta ask. Has he driven your Model 3 yet? Because from your description of how much stock market research he does, I would think he might have begged a test drive from you by now. Or that you would have forced him to try it out.

Yes the car really shows the company is for real. March of 2018 I bought my 3 when the stock was down a bit. I had a 200 mile drive back home through the mountains and the car blew me away. I purchased another 50 shares as I realized Tesla had a real winner in the Model 3. Since then my car is now 10% faster, I have a little more range, and a host of new goodies like heated rear seats.... keeps me convinced they still have a winner.

 

[Green Pete]

How did you find this particular buy?

By randomly scanning the options chain?

Or was it just an anomaly in the Option Chain at that expiration where the premium was just crazy lower for that one strike price than the next higher or lower, or was the premium in line with others but certain Greeks made it a much better buy for some reason?

Thanks again. Wish I'd bought then, but you - and a few others posting here - motivated me to learn more about options.

The range available for future options is established via the price when the options become available. When the Jan 2021 options became available 690 seemed highly possible. Then the stock tanked, but the range was already set, so there were some options with strike prices that nobody knew in their right mind would have thought were viable, but the price was so low who cares (it got down to 0.45 at one point). I haven't checked but I bet Uber Lyft and many other companies that recently crashed have some cheap options.

I'm still more inclined to get puts than calls on Uber and Lyft though.

Just remember it's very easy to lose everything you put in to an option. I'm up 770% now on that particular trade but I'm gonna hold until at least the short term capital gains mark, and ik comfortable with it going to zero (though it's not preferred)

 

[AudubonB]

If the intention of the law firm was to sue the largest users of cobalt (regardless of actual sourcing, i.e. whether or not the company buys from Congo where illegal child labour mining is rampant), they have made a huge mistake by omitting the industry that uses the vast majority of cobalt: the gasoline refining industry to remove sulfur from crude oil.

Desulphurisation | Cobalt Institute

MODERATOR:

The Cobalt lawsuit is an appropriate topic for this thread. HOWEVER, ALL general discussion of Co and other resources must stay in the appropriate site ("The Resource Thread"). Not only is it otherwise far too easy and tempting to get deep into the weeds BUT MISINFORMATION LIKE THE ABOVE more readily will be followed, re-disseminated and otherwise cause mischief.

For the record, because the wrong info was posted above: slightly more than 50% of Cobalt is used in the rechargeable battery sector. The above post most likely refers to the subset of "Catalytic Uses", within which it is indeed the case that most such use is in petroleum desulfurization.

~~~NO MORE RESPONSES IN THIS THREAD~~~

 

[Curt Renz]

So no significant amount of margin calls today? @Curt Renz can you provide some pro insight?

Brokers typically allow two to five days for a client to respond to a margin call. This can depend on the size of the account, and particularly the name, size, volatility and recent price movement of the holding that triggered the call.

 

[Off Shore]

Come on, isn't this sort of thing what everyone does in their spare time during the winter?

I go South and eat fresh bananas.

 

[Artful Dodger]

SP now at the 12:30 pm Upper-BB (376.45)