The problem with Elon repudiating certain stories is that it can give credence to articles that aren't responded to. It's a difficult line to walk between denying all the nonsense out there and inadvertently giving away new information.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Mike Smith
Active Member
Bloomberg actually goes into detail about how Tesla will be reducing costs. I think most investors will believe that that part is true, and someone just inferred from that that Tesla will be reducing price by a similar amount, which is now known to be false. This would be a positive takeaway.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
This according to Bjorn Nyland or TeslaBjorn.
US manufactured Model 3 face 80% tariff while Chinese Model 3s would face Zero Tariff.
The market is just over 1M new cars per year.
5 of the Top Ten Sellers are Pickups
Commercial 1 ton Pickup Sales
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Anyone here who can confirm?
it would make a ton of sense out of many things.
first production, least efficient process, worst margins. offset this by bundling FSD initially, effectively rewarding those ordering FSD with moving up to the front of the line.
as production process smooths out, later unbundle FSD... an almost 20% decrease to the starting price (but, not, a 20% drop in price of the same product). this might be what Bloomberg China conflated (intentionally or not).
fwiw, the balance of the ~$10k disparity (~$3k) might be due to rules about listed auto prices. as I understand it, in at least parts of Europe, taxes must be included in listed prices... perhaps there are similar rules in China.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Well, FCA's CEO recently confirmed that in their 2020 plans they are calculating with 60% of the Co2 penalties being "recovered" via sales of their own EVs, the remaining 40% through the Tesla pooling agreement.
I think that 60% is probably optimistic, because it relies on Fiat selling compliance EVs at good prices, but even with only 40% of their penalties reduced via Tesla that's a significant source of income.
It was clear from FCA CEO's statement that they are going to use Tesla to reduce the Co2 penalties to zero - they just don't know how many Fiat EVs they'll be able to sell in 2020 and 2021.
With PSA on board the effective ZEV credits required to zero out the penalties quadruples - but maybe the increase is even higher, as PSA doesn't really have a chance to cover 60% of their penalties via their own EVs.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
appreciate the details.
big picture, do we know if the amount of vehicles Tesla will deliver in the EU (apologies if that’s not the correct relevant grouping) is even on the scale of what the combined needs of FCA and Peugeot will be in ‘20 and ‘21? I’d suspect roughly 150-200k Teslas delivered in the region in ‘20 and 300k in ‘21. I wonder if much of any units would be available for offset for Peugeot.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Why not? I was just reading about several PSA EVs. I want to see numbers before I believe it makes it better for Tesla.
LN1_Casey
Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus
I see it .93%, or to 341.15 Euro as I type.
...and then 340.90 as I type this. Still, good.
LN1_Casey
Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus
特拉风T☰SLA mania on Twitter
Good use of the auto brake feature in China. 1) Why was that old lady on that side of the road of a busy intersection? There didn't seem to be any sidewalk, it was just road. 2) How'd she get there? 3) Why frogger yourself over a 3 lane road, and not go to a point where there was a cross walk?
I have so many questions.
Good use of the auto brake feature in China. 1) Why was that old lady on that side of the road of a busy intersection? There didn't seem to be any sidewalk, it was just road. 2) How'd she get there? 3) Why frogger yourself over a 3 lane road, and not go to a point where there was a cross walk?
I have so many questions.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Unlikely PSA EVs will be competitive with Tesla and VW Group EVs.
Unlikely PSA will be able to outmaneuver VW Group for battery cell supply. And battery supply is limited.
I think most European Automotive CEOs figured EU fleet CO2 grams/km requirements were unrealistic and when they proved to be so the EU would backtrack on mandates and lower CO2 grams/km fleet requirements.
That Tesla BEVs will be selling well and maybe VW Group BEVs will be selling well will disprove that EU mandates are unrealistic.
I just realised its easier for me to look smart by using the (totally true) phrase "I finally managed to convince my wife to agree to us acquiring a big chunk of $TSLA at an average buy price of $218 earlier this year - after dipping our toes in at $182 in May".
Scientists at the gig are likely to be more impressed with that than me pretending I know about "differential evolution of fluids" and "arrhenius equation databases", in spite of Karen's helpful explanation.
Some claim the SP is where it was before which is actually right and wrong. Right just looking at the number itself and wrong if you do in a meaningful way and compare the SP with underlying fundamentals.
In that respect the SP is in an excellent position right now compared to the past looking at it from in invested investor perspective.
Technically its a moment of truth and the yesterday stock movement have shown a tremendous reliance against bears and shorts while I did expect more correction than just those few $.
If we go down from here don't worry we will be back soon at this levels with many good news to be expected. Bad news can never be ruled out while its hard to imagine what can be useful for bears everything is used that often already that uncertain bulls may not believe in it - worn out.
Year end and Jan are usually good times for stocks for several reasons so the market supports upwards pressure. If we go through overoptimism may take over which is what many are hoping for and we find us all in another run up for 100 to $480 or even more. You never know as emotions stand in the way in that situations but if you believe in pattern and that it did the same in the last 2 bands we have been in we may see a repeat simply because people believe in it as a self fulfilling prophecy.
Somewhere early this year or late last I predicted a new ATH in 2019 which did not happen yet. A ton of good news did go down the drain with successful manipulation and media playing its FUD game while Tesla executed successfully.
A decision if we break through to ATH is pending in these days and weeks but there are also reason speaking against it for instance that we just had a run of about 100% and bulls may be exhausted to go the extra mile from here through a strong resistance building for years.
In any case its fun to watch and all I can say is stay extra long is my strategy and that won't change.
In that respect the SP is in an excellent position right now compared to the past looking at it from in invested investor perspective.
Technically its a moment of truth and the yesterday stock movement have shown a tremendous reliance against bears and shorts while I did expect more correction than just those few $.
If we go down from here don't worry we will be back soon at this levels with many good news to be expected. Bad news can never be ruled out while its hard to imagine what can be useful for bears everything is used that often already that uncertain bulls may not believe in it - worn out.
Year end and Jan are usually good times for stocks for several reasons so the market supports upwards pressure. If we go through overoptimism may take over which is what many are hoping for and we find us all in another run up for 100 to $480 or even more. You never know as emotions stand in the way in that situations but if you believe in pattern and that it did the same in the last 2 bands we have been in we may see a repeat simply because people believe in it as a self fulfilling prophecy.
Somewhere early this year or late last I predicted a new ATH in 2019 which did not happen yet. A ton of good news did go down the drain with successful manipulation and media playing its FUD game while Tesla executed successfully.
A decision if we break through to ATH is pending in these days and weeks but there are also reason speaking against it for instance that we just had a run of about 100% and bulls may be exhausted to go the extra mile from here through a strong resistance building for years.
In any case its fun to watch and all I can say is stay extra long is my strategy and that won't change.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Lol, Cramer is now a full-on TSLA cheerleader fan-boi:
“I don’t want you to own Ford. I want you to own the stock of Tesla,” said Jim Cramer | Dec 18
In other newz, dogz'n'cats sleeping together...
Cheers!
“I don’t want you to own Ford. I want you to own the stock of Tesla,” said Jim Cramer | Dec 18
In other newz, dogz'n'cats sleeping together...
Cheers!
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