Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

Energy might take more time to mature (vs EVs) because of headaches involved to install + bad wrap from the past. My experience on the process led me through decisions on our solar/battery sizes without proper guidance from Tesla. All to be worked out eventually, but too early to tell WHEN the proper value will be realized.

Then when you consider that only 3 homes per day doing solar homes in Az (possibly every 2 days in practice), it's hard to realize much value here near-term.

That's just your Arizona talking. The utilities have so much control that the inherently simply has been made impossible. Solar+storage is a very blue/red initiative that the voters rapidly rally behind. Once the floodgates open in your market solar will be everywhere. Someone needs to do that installs, provide crucial software, and service the whole operation. That will be Tesla ....and soon.

 

[KarenRei]

Just to be clear: do $420 celebrations trigger on $420 intraday, or $420 close?

I vote 'intraday'.

 

[SpaceCash]

Just to be clear: do $420 celebrations trigger on $420 intraday, or $420 close?

I vote 'intraday'.

definitely intraday

 

[KarenRei]

Energy might take more time to mature (vs EVs) because of headaches involved to install + bad wrap from the past. My experience on the process led me through decisions on our solar/battery sizes without proper guidance from Tesla. All to be worked out eventually, but too early to tell WHEN the proper value will be realized.

Then when you consider that only 3 homes per day doing solar homes in Az (possibly every 2 days in practice), it's hard to realize much value here near-term. California 2020 new roof laws will accelerate the growth, but compared to how many cars are sold (with comparable margins and cash flow per sale), this will take a while to realize.

But then I put on my future optics and energy in general is HUGE $$$. And as cars demand more and more electricity vs gas, the solar demand will also rise. I'm already wishing I had more panels now so I could cover EV charging as well. Basically, EVs are creating more demand for Solar.

It's never straight line with anything Tesla, so I have no clue when solar will be significant. Maybe end of next year with the greatest drop in Fed tax credits from 26% to 10% in the US. We'll know better this time next year. (I'm ignoring Mega power installs here, but those are scarce so far but important in the long run.)

I find it strange that even here, people mistakenly treat Tesla Energy as being nothing more than residential solar and powerwalls.

Commercial, grid-scale contracts are where the real growth is near-term, IMHO.

Also, the thing to prove isn't to suddenly jump past automotive revenue in Q4. It's to show consistent strong quarterly growth at a rate faster than automotive, and to make up more than a "trivial" fraction of revenue, in order to force analysts to properly evaluate where it's headed, rather than just sticking some naive linear or flat growth model on it.

 

[Singuy]

Watched 6underground on Netflix. Tesla was mentioned once, Elon was mentioned once. Paid zero dollars to be in the movie unlike Alfa Romeo.

Movie was POS. What happened Michael Bay..you were the chosen one!

 

[lklundin]

People rarely survive 110mph crash.

Without getting a scratch I crashed my previous car - an Audi A8 TDI - at 210 km/h (130 mph). But instead of a 25 mph zone I chose an empty Autobahn with its surprisingly effective dividers. A 20 years younger BMW driver that I had passed earlier was about as fast and did not fare so well, but the news reported that he and his two passengers made it without life threatening injuries.

I hindsight it worked out great for me, I got a ton of money from my insurance for a car that (also absent the totaling) would have been unsellable today.

Now I am actually happy to rarely take my Model 3 over 180 km/h...

 

[Cherry Wine]

Just to be clear: do $420 celebrations trigger on $420 intraday, or $420 close?

I vote 'intraday'.

Intraday for sure. Got a possible 420 avatar candidate lined up:

 

[bhtooefr]

Numerological aspects aside, when would this order type be useful?

When you want to set a price that you consider the stock as breaking out, to buy.

A short could use it to automatically cover, or a momentum trader could set it to catch an uptrend if they didn't want to hold before that uptrend.

 

[SMAlset]

Car sales in China is down 40% because buyers are all waiting on Model 3, Model y and Cybertruck.

Not the news that I've been reading. The Chinese may not be buying as many other cars but they love their Teslas and I assume will be even more supportive with them being made locally. Tesla is just an outlier to all the doom and gloom car sales projections in China. One of these days the market analysts will wake up and realize what Tesla has--staying power. I'm sure other car manufacturers are taking note, somewhat fearful of Tesla's brand power and some jealousy too I suspect. But it shows if you have a great product you can get buyers even when the market looks down. Tesla didn't get to this point by laying back and going the hybrid/compliance route and deservedly own the #1 spot. Very proud of the company and those that make it happen every day.

Tesla bucks China car slump as November registrations soar

 

[SOULPEDL]

That's just your Arizona talking. The utilities have so much control that the inherently simply has been made impossible. Solar+storage is a very blue/red initiative that the voters rapidly rally behind. Once the floodgates open in your market solar will be everywhere. Someone needs to do that installs, provide crucial software, and service the whole operation. That will be Tesla ....and soon.

Maybe you're right. It's so ripe out here... Az - we have sun!

Since we're clarifying stuff like 69, I assume you mean the "reds" don't like solar? Interesting strategy for them moving forward; wouldn't bet on them coming out ahead with that thinking now. (Dinosaurs come to mind.)

 

[Papafox]

My opinion of today's trading is that the hedge funds did a big sell at market open to disrupt the pre-market enthusiasm. TSLA has about 13K 400-strike calls expiring today, plus a fair number of 405 and 410 strike calls, and the hedge funds may have sold these without bothering to delta-hedge them, expecting to manipulate the SP if needed. The problem is that manipulations are really tough when there's strong buying pressure. The dip they created into the red was bought and TSLA returned to the green. The game has now devolved into a prolonged whack-the-mole exercise. If TSLA climbs convincingly into the green this afternoon, the manipulators lose control of the stock price and it'll cost them lots of money. If the whack-the-mole continues until close to close, then they can try once again for a pushdown to slightly below 400.

Working against the manipulations is a tendency for traders to buy shares close to the end of market trading, anticipating a rise on Monday morning buying exuberance, which we've seen for several Monday mornings already.

 

[woodisgood]

Not the news that I've been reading. The Chinese may not be buying as many other cars but they love their Teslas and I assume will be even more supportive with them being made locally. Tesla is just an outlier to all the doom and gloom sales projections in China.

Tesla bucks China car slump as November registrations soar

Outlier indeed. There are four kinds of cars: ICE, hybrid, BEV, and Tesla. Funny how it all comes into focus when you view it like that.

 

[SMAlset]

I find it strange that even here, people mistakenly treat Tesla Energy as being nothing more than residential solar and powerwalls.

Commercial, grid-scale contracts are where the real growth is near-term, IMHO.

Also, the thing to prove isn't to suddenly jump past automotive revenue in Q4. It's to show consistent strong quarterly growth at a rate faster than automotive, and to make up more than a "trivial" fraction of revenue, in order to force analysts to properly evaluate where it's headed, rather than just sticking some naive linear or flat growth model on it.

Totally agree. It's like the commercial projects are seldom thought of by them; and the installations are huge and proven. Those news stories, of which there are, don't seem to register with them so get little expanded coverage but that is their job to know about these things, evaluate and factor in. Suppose one day someone will realize the value and potential this has for Tesla, the stock and the world. Their energy division is one of the reasons to be long on Tesla.

 

[Nocturnal]

Numerological aspects aside, when would this order type be useful?

I was wondering as well, I assume either hedging or momentum.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Dude if this thing gets bid up closer to the high into close - just, wow. I will be very impressed.

 

[woodisgood]

Totally agree. It's like the commercial projects are seldom thought of by them; and the installations are huge and proven. Those news stories, of which there are, don't seem to register with them so get little expanded coverage but that is their job to know about these things, evaluate and factor in. Suppose one day someone will realize the value and potential this has for Tesla, the stock and the world. Their energy division is one of the reasons to be long on Tesla.

Even as an investor who is relatively knowledgeable about the company, when these types of discussions take place, I am sometimes floored by how short-sighted so many people are on this company. Not just from an investment perspective, but from a change-the-world perspective.

Just mind-boggling.

 

[carterm2]

Reference point of interest: does your car have MCU1 (made before March 2018) or MCU2 (made March 2018 or later)?
Mine is Feb 2018 with MCU1, curious to hear if they have started upgrading those yet ...

The build date was in July...

 

[SpaceCash]

A bajillion shorts still need to cover
They weren't even able to knock it below 400 today
Impeachment isn't affecting anything
Fake cartel/FBI story didn't do anything
Squeeze hasn't even started yet but we're only going up from here imvho

 

[Foghat]

What would happen if Tesla raised another $5billion in an offering soon?

What will happen when Tesla is added to the S&P 500?

 

[goinfraftw]

A bajillion shorts still need to cover
They weren't even able to knock it below 400 today
Impeachment isn't affecting anything
Fake cartel/FBI story didn't do anything
Squeeze hasn't even started yet but we're only going up from here imvho

The Paris Climate Accord (the one where all 128 countries signed) is < 2 weeks away from starting (which'll add $100B, at least, to worldwide climate investment funding from the Green Climate Fund). Think it comes down to this:

350M (US) v. 7.3B (rest of the world) [give or take]

Regardless what happens w/ Trump, Australia (an entire continent) burning means its "go time" to get this climate issue fixed as a civilization, IMO.