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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
Ihor believes we've entered a short squeeze: Tesla Short Losses & Covering Turning Into a Squeeze – Shortsight.com
From what I can tell just being added to the S&P 500 is worth about 5%, and the expectation of being added would surely increase SP as well.
Tesla doesn't really need the money so I don't think raising capital would help. It did last time because people were freaking out about their cash balance.
Give me a minute while steep my tea leaves
$400 appears to have become a significant support level. TSLA hit a low today of $400.16 at 11:11 EST, and has been picking up nicely ever since. It looks as though true MaxPain may have shifted to $405. Of course this could change again.
A question for the market charting aficionados:
Does technical analysis have the flexibility to alter its forecasting techniques to account for exogenous variables like anomalously high levels of short interest?
I think it's obvious where I'm going here.
Does technical analysis have the flexibility to alter its forecasting techniques to account for exogenous variables like anomalously high levels of short interest?
I think it's obvious where I'm going here.
Maybe splitting hairs here, but sounds like he thinks it's turning into a squeeze. So we're in this transitional gray area where it could squeeze, or not, is how I read his analysis.
I read an interesting exchange between Spiegel and a trader on Twitter yesterday where the trader seemed pretty firm in his conviction that some financial heavy hitters have identified shorts as being up against it and are going to bid the price higher until they capitulate.
Whether that's the actual scenario here or someone(s) have taken a more legitimate interested based on Tesla's future potential as @DaveT postulates, who knows? Either way, people are buying a lot of shares and anyone sold short has got to be sweating it because the price just keeps going up.
Edit: We should keep a close eye on stock borrow costs. Wouldn't an increase in those from general collateral levels of 0.30% be one of the first big red flags of an impending squeeze?
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In case its not been posted yet:
Igor talks about a Tesla short squeeze
Tesla Short Losses & Covering Turning Into a Squeeze – Shortsight.com
Igor talks about a Tesla short squeeze
Tesla Short Losses & Covering Turning Into a Squeeze – Shortsight.com
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Technical analysis can be broken by fundamental shifts - black or white swans, if you will.
BobbyKings
S85D > M3P > S Plaid
tinm
2020 Model S LR+ Owner
I want Mahjongg in U.S. cars. I play that game on my iPhone regularly. I also devoted a whole chapter to my 2017 book about the origins of it as a computer game but I digress.
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I never discussed that concern in my 2003 technical analysis primer, which McGraw-Hill requested me to write as an overview in relatively simple terms for novices. Short interest does indeed appear to confuse the matter. Unlike some others, I am not a technical analysis purist. It can be quite helpful in attempts to decipher otherwise unknowable intentions of market participants. I use it among a great many other factors including awareness of short interest in my own trading.
I am guessing they don't know how to evaluate the market opportunity. For instance: a Tesla battery installation can replace a natural gas peaker plant. But how many such peaker plants are there (in the world)? How much do they cost to operate? For each one, how much would a battery installation with comparable capacity cost (to both install and operate)? Therefore, how long is the ROI?
I've seen some such numbers for the Hornsdale installation, but it's by no means clear (to me) how you could extend that to the rest of the world.
So I think they throw up their hands and say "since we don't know how big the commercial energy market opportunity is, we'll just call it zero, and then nobody can claim we're being overly optimistic."
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woodisgood
Optimustic Pessimist
Prevailing opinion was that was FUD designed to slow MIC sales.
EDIT: Certainly there are supply chain efficiencies to be gained in China, and production costs are certainly going to be lower. Perhaps that is where the 20% estimate comes from. But Tesla will decide how much of that to pass on to the consumer vs. growing margins. Saying they're going to cut prices by 20% simply is saying, "Don't buy now!"
Hello, Shorty?!
Time for that 2pm margin call, baby!
For your own good. Who wants to wait for Monday to suffer more? You need closure. Acceptance brings tranquility brings harmony.
cover shorty cover aahh feels. good
Time for that 2pm margin call, baby!
For your own good. Who wants to wait for Monday to suffer more? You need closure. Acceptance brings tranquility brings harmony.
cover shorty cover aahh feels. good
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