Bloomberg: Tesla Shorts in ‘Winter of Despair’ as Stock Touched Record High
article about Ihor's post about the squeeze
article about Ihor's post about the squeeze
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Yes, it is unlikely China would play price games at the state level. But there could be political irritations like, 'Hey, we lowered the tax rate and even gave you state incentives, aren't you going to be realistic about your lower costs here?'
woodisgood
Optimustic Pessimist
That's a fair point. I'm sure there's a balance to be struck with politicians and Tesla will find it. But from Tesla's end I imagine decisions are primarily going to be based on supply/demand and I have a hard time believing they need to lower prices that much (if at all) to sell every car they can make at GF3.
Exactly, and Bandit is licking his chops in our Model 3. FYI, his ear is pointing in the direction of the SP on-screen. (His name could easily be "Hockey Stick", but not to sound too "Technical" on this thread).
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
Finally, they are discussing TSLA on CNBC. Very sophisticated chatter about mahjong penetration in Florida. No light thrown whatsoever on why the stock appreciated 70% in 90 days. They just asserted this very statistic and then promptly shrugged their collective shoulders (4 highly educated financial analysts) as to why it happened or what it means.
The price reduction in China was fake news, and denied by Tesla China almost immediately. Tesla North America made no comment because the office would have been closed at the time.
woodisgood
Optimustic Pessimist
Don't like/trust the guy, but does anyone have access to this Cramer article? Curious if he wrote anything of substance or just fluff.
Jim Cramer: Tesla Is a Phenomenon
Jim Cramer: Tesla Is a Phenomenon
Exactly. That's the reality. My three years or so living in Asia taught me that the Asian consumer will gladly spend whatever it costs to be able to show off as the owner of the best technology in the world. Tesla 'owns' those consumers.
I suppose as much as the politicians want to have Tesla as their technology gem in Shanghai, some of them may find it irksome if Tesla is too unforgiving on price vs cost environment.
Where are the Tesla sellers? What happened to them? They were there every day for ages. Every point. Suddenly they are gone. The stock opens higher each morning like clockwork and it has no resistance. What happened?
First, earnings. That's right, there are now real projections and they are spectacular: $5 next year and then $10 in 2021. These are consensus estimates. They are vetted and they actually may happen. That means it is a heck of a lot better than Ford and GM when it comes to growth and growth is really all that matters when it comes to vehicles because no one else has it. No one.
Second, ingenuity: So many auto companies were supposed to have real competitive products in the market, genuine, well-engineered products with real cache, especially the Germans. Looks like they are a lot harder to make than people thought. The competition isn't there.
Third: Musk himself has gone from someone who seemed chronically on the verge of some sort of nervous breakdown or egomaniacal high that he became his own worst enemy. We don't know if he's gotten his life together, I sure hope he has, and maybe he even believes it is together and it isn't. The fact is it doesn't matter. He's no longer teasing the SEC. He's no longer trashing the analysts. He's just like all other CEOs with the rare exception of the departing John Legere from T-Mobile . He runs a good, thorough conference call, gives an occasional speech and is otherwise, I never thought I would say this, not controversial. That makes him easy to get behind.
Fourth: If you have earnings estimates it's pretty easy to raise enough money to make or do whatever you want. For years I heard that Tesla could never make a profit. Then I heard that if they make a profit it's all made up, using subsidies and bogus accounting.
Fifth: Now I hear nothing. And if Tesla is going to make even half of what the analysts say it would be no problem to raise $5 billion at reasonable rates if needed.
Sixth: He really was able to build a gigantic factory in 10 months. As someone who has been involved in building even the smallest of factories that's astounding. That's better than Intel , which I always regarded as the single greatest manufacturer we have in this country and they can't build them fasted than 18 months. I know some of you think that might not be a good comparison but you need to know that Intel had long been considered the gold standard when it came to greenfield factory build outs.
Seventh: The solar panel deal which seemed so dilutive is now becoming an asset not a liability as Musk has somehow been able to reduce the price of the product to where the payback is pretty immediate and the competition yields nothing.
Eighth: The cars have only improved with each iteration. They still have tremendous pizazz even when a rock gets thrown through a window of a cyber truck that's supposed to be unbreakable. Millennials love them.
Ninth: Charging stations are now ubiquitous and easily found via the web.
Tenth: It turns out that many of the sellers were short sellers, not long sellers. They have disappeared or are covering - they are the ones who buy before the market opens - because it's a hard borrow without a real thesis. I can't own stocks. Tesla's not for a charitable trust. But I have liked it ever since the rock went through the window and I like it just as much today even as it's having a monumental move. No level, no level seems to bring out sellers. It's a phenomenon. One that's rarely seen and one that's incredible to behold.
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Tesla has been quite clear and consistent that car prices will be the same in all markets with adjustments for shipping costs, taxes, and tariffs. I think this is a wise policy because it is quite fair
Tesla received tax breaks for building GF1 in Nevada as well. This is common for billion dollar scale investments.
It’s not in China’s interest to play such games with Tesla if they want more GFs built there. At full scale Tesla could be operating dozens of gigafactories.
Ok, thanks. I see that Teslarati updated their original input from Bloomberg, saying the info was not true. Glad to hear it.
woodisgood
Optimustic Pessimist
Thanks! Imagine you should probably cull out some of that post due to copyright though. But I appreciate the read. He's gone full bull..
My deep sympathies! I made the same mistake, but somewhat fortunately I made another at the same time and fat-fingered in 410 instead of 420.I saw this too late, and because I'm a Noob, I got a message.. buy order filled
I guess I'll have to spring for another at 420.69
Wrong buy, but it could have been even worse. Oh well, I'll just try to rescue some of that value and make another attempt, now armed with better knowledge.
Sudre
Active Member
I don't think this morning was THE SHORTS as much as it the options. THEY proved many times they could drop the SP $6 in 30 minutes so don't get too excited. I think this morning was just putting things in range. I have planned buys for the push down under $400. THEY don't want to move to soon or others can push it lower to gain their puts. It's going to be interesting because like a few others I think we see some end of day margin covers too.
It is convenient how the price is hanging in around $405 where a $6 push down would put the SP right under the $400 Calls.
THEY, OTHERS... not really one person. Just how the general market is battling today.
It is convenient how the price is hanging in around $405 where a $6 push down would put the SP right under the $400 Calls.
THEY, OTHERS... not really one person. Just how the general market is battling today.
There are 1,264 operating peaker plants in the US according to this report:
Peaker Plant Map - Clean Energy Group
In areas that have more power from variable sources, typically wind and solar, the need for some typwe of buffer is even more important than it otherwise is. The normal distribution of peaker plants is highest where power peaks are most correlated with time of day or coupled with seasonal differences too. basically that means everywhere. At the present time some form of energy storage is increasingly popular to compensate for variable sources, but now is becoming more popular to supplement peakers.
There are three major motivations for. using storage to offset peakers.
First, time and expense to build a peaker are both much higher than they are for storage;
Second, battery storage is instantly available, thus eliminating the time lag of minutes or hours to activate a peaker.
Third, battery storage operation is essentially free to operate and cheap to maintain while all other peaker from are expensive to run and maintain.
An ancillary reason is that battery storage allows crowing about being a 'Green' utility.
anthonyj
Stonks
MARK MY WORLDS $700 minimum MINIMUM by June. Don’t be a bear! $600 strikes are going to print Roadsters for all the real bulls. Picking up more $600 January 2020 for the lulz! TT007 on the cover of FORBES SOON. The new messiah! 007 backwards is 700
Mike Smith
Active Member
420 party pro tip: To make spiegel spliffs first cut an inch off the paper (they have to be short)
I agree. I think there will be a significant gap in time between L3 (driver does not need to pay attention but needs to be able to take over if the system requests it) and L4/L5 (no one in the car is responsible for takeover) needed for robotaxi. I can imagine L3 by the end of 2020, but that's still aggressive. Making the jump to L4 will likely take another year, followed by a slow rollout of regulatory approval, probably geographically limited.
Just my opinion. For reference, I also thought it would take SpaceX longer to stick the F9 booster landings.
woodisgood
Optimustic Pessimist
Fun thought experiment - will the SP respond to FSD just like the progress? A slow march with positive bumps every time there's a development - coast to coast demo, feature complete level 2, regulatory approval of hands-free, roll-out of robotaxi platform, etc.? Or will there be a moment when the market realizes autonomy more significantly has to be a part of the valuation?
I expect the shorts want to keep any gain to a minimum today; preferably, for them, end just barely in the red. As opposed to their pushing down as hard as they possibly can today. (Of course, their actual control of events continues to become more and more limited.)
On the one hand, they don’t want to enter next week with another margin call driven bounce.
On the other hand, they’ll want to keep as much dry powder as they have left so they can use it during the short trading week next week.
But, yes, only delaying the inevitable. Praying for some disaster for Tesla I suppose.
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