Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JustMe]

There are 1,264 operating peaker plants in the US according to this report:
Peaker Plant Map - Clean Energy Group
In areas that have more power from variable sources, typically wind and solar, the need for some typwe of buffer is even more important than it otherwise is. The normal distribution of peaker plants is highest where power peaks are most correlated with time of day or coupled with seasonal differences too. basically that means everywhere. At the present time some form of energy storage is increasingly popular to compensate for variable sources, but now is becoming more popular to supplement peakers.

There are three major motivations for. using storage to offset peakers.
First, time and expense to build a peaker are both much higher than they are for storage;
Second, battery storage is instantly available, thus eliminating the time lag of minutes or hours to activate a peaker.
Third, battery storage operation is essentially free to operate and cheap to maintain while all other peaker from are expensive to run and maintain.

An ancillary reason is that battery storage allows crowing about being a 'Green' utility.

Yep. Tesla energy storage has proven to beat the cost of intra-day peaker plants in some cases. As Tesla grows in scale and battery costs come down, their addressable market will grow in a virtuous cycle. Hard to predict where the limit is.
I don’t expect battery storage to be the best solution for seasonal timescale energy storage. But who knows. We’re just getting started.

 

[StealthP3D]

A question for the market charting aficionados:

Does technical analysis have the flexibility to alter its forecasting techniques to account for exogenous variables like anomalously high levels of short interest?

Yes, the art of technical analysis is incredibly flexible.

I would say its flexibility matches or even exceeds that of palm reading.

 

[sparcs]

Marketwatch: Tesla’s stock rally costing shorts $1.6 billion

another article about Ihor's post.

 

[MarcoRP]

In Kazakhstan, a 2nd Supercharger has just been installed in Almaty at the Esentai Mall:

Anuarbek Imanbaev on Twitter

 

[Curt Renz]

Maybe splitting hairs here, but sounds like he thinks it's turning into a squeeze. So we're in this transitional gray area where it could squeeze, or not, is how I read his analysis.

I read an interesting exchange between Spiegel and a trader on Twitter yesterday where the trader seemed pretty firm in his conviction that some financial heavy hitters have identified shorts as being up against it and are going to bid the price higher until they capitulate.

Whether that's the actual scenario here or someone(s) have taken a more legitimate interested based on Tesla's future potential as @DaveT postulates, who knows? Either way, people are buying a lot of shares and anyone sold short has got to be sweating it because the price just keeps going up.

Edit: We should keep a close eye on stock borrow costs. Wouldn't an increase in those from general collateral levels of 0.30% be one of the first big red flags of an impending squeeze?

It certainly could be that a party(ies) with a large position in TSLA might be pushing the share price continuously higher with the intent of empting the pockets of all short sellers. The result could be a large increase in the value of the shares of whomever might be implementing this hypothesized large and continuous buy program. $420 may be their target (guess why), but as this process gathers momentum the share price could well overshoot.

 

[jbcarioca]

Yep. Tesla energy storage has proven to beat the cost of intra-day peaker plants in some cases. As Tesla grows in scale and battery costs come down, their addressable market will grow in a virtuous cycle. Hard to predict where the limit is.
I don’t expect battery storage to be the best solution for seasonal timescale energy storage. But who knows. We’re just getting started.

I don't either. However, in sunny and warm places summer usually produces the largest seasonal peaks coincident with the most exaggerated hourly peaks, which coincide with the highest producing hours for solar. Sometimes that combination is beginning to be a winning economic peaker substitute. Sometimes.

FWIW, grid technologies and efficiency are also beginning to change. As that happens much more opportunity will tend to exist for storage for brief periods to stabilize grid adjustments. These are very, very new, and Tesla is a leader in the instant grid response market.

As we all should know these economics are changing very rapidly.

 

[JustMe]

But I have liked it ever since the rock went through the window and I like it just as much today even as it's having a monumental move

Minor correction! The “rock” did NOT go through the window. And that’s way more important to the driver than whether or not the glass cracks.

I’m looking forward to some updated side by side torture tests of the Cybertruck and princess wagons. Demolition derby or whatever.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

I expect some kind of drop of SP into close today because of options expiry. Next week could be off to the races again.

 

[StealthP3D]

No light thrown whatsoever on why the stock appreciated 70% in 90 days. They just asserted this very statistic and then promptly shrugged their collective shoulders (4 highly educated financial analysts) as to why it happened or what it means.

Did you expect them to say;

"What this means, basically, is that, well, ummm, (clears throat), that, ummm, we've pretty much been wrong all along. Well, either that or the market has gone haywire."

 

[Foghat]

What the legacy analyst fail to see in the China slumping sales over the past year:

Many Chinese EV consumers are *waiting* for the Chinese made Tesla vehicles to hit the market.

The Gigafactory construction began about a year ago, anticipation has been mounting ever since. With a year of waiting also comes planned savings and preparation... just as we have discovered with previous early announcement of models and factory plans, along with the reservation system Tesla has in place to track it.

It can be a strongly suggestive metric for why China EV auto numbers are down over the past year.

It’s like when a tsunami is about to hit, the “tide” appears to go way out, some uninformed people think the sea is disappearing, but then soon notice a gigantic fricking wall of water coming at them at a high rate of speed.

This wall is the coming sales/revenue number to come out of China auto market crashing down on those near-sighted analysts standing in the sand with their metal detector and sun visor who continue to think it’s a perfect time to scan for lost quarters.

From the safety of high ground, many of us see the sales numbers from the past year as wildly good news for 2020 Tesla sales in China.

 

[StealthP3D]

I expect a big drop of SP into close today because of options expiry.

I have little idea whether they will be successful or not, but obviously, they are going to try. I don't trust Ihor at all. It seems his "job" is to set up longs right where his clients (the shorts) want them to be. If successful, it will drop into the close. The only thing arguing against this is the stock has shown incredible buying pressure in recent days/weeks and there is no sign of it abating. Whether we get a drop or not largely depends upon the patience of those who are building positions. It could just shoot up from here.

 

[reardencode]

Numerological aspects aside, when would this order type be useful?

For volatile stocks, hello TSLA, you might want to risk using a stop-limit instead of a plain stop for a stop-loss. Plain stops can contribute to volatility, and risks poor execution prices, a stop-limit risks not executing or not completely executing if the price crosses thorough the stop and stays there.

Different tools to manage risk.

 

[Todd Burch]

Expecting we’ll hit $430 by close today.

Spoiler: Market Psychoanalysis

Market movement is often driven by self-fulfilling prophesy, per Yoda. The price will be what you want it to be.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

GF4: The purchase contract is now signed. The German state parliament still has to agree (link):
The planned "giga factory" of the US electric car manufacturer Tesla is moving one step closer: According to the state government, Tesla has agreed with Brandenburg on the purchase of the property. The state chancellery in Potsdam announced the purchase contract.

 

[StealthP3D]

What the legacy analyst fail to see in the China slumping sales over the past year:

Many Chinese EV consumers are *waiting* for the Chinese made Tesla vehicles to hit the market.

That's part of it, for sure. But I think a bigger factor that no one seems to talk about is that the vast majority of China EV sales are for off-name EV's that aren't much more than glorified golf carts. Some of them cost as little as $5,000.Most of them do not compete with Tesla AT ALL. They are purchased (or not) by an entirely different market segment. And the subsidies were a much stronger incentive for the cheap EV's. And yet these statistics are being used to predict Tesla sales?

It makes zero sense.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

I have little idea whether they will be successful or not, but obviously, they are going to try. I don't trust Ihor at all. It seems his "job" is to set up longs right where his clients (the shorts) want them to be. If successful, it will drop into the close. The only thing arguing against this is the stock has shown incredible buying pressure in recent days/weeks and there is no sign of it abating. Whether we get a drop or not largely depends upon the patience of those who are building positions. It could just shoot up from here.

I would be happy to see a close at these levels without a drop, just thinking about what could happen.
A close without a significant drop would be a bullish sign for the next days, imho.

 

[Curt Renz]

MarketWatch - 50 minutes ago: Tesla’s stock rally costing shorts $1.6 billion

Benzinga - 2 hours ago: A Tesla Short Squeeze Years In The Making May Have Finally Arrived

 

[sundaymorning]

It certainly could be that a party(ies) with a large position in TSLA might be pushing the share price continuously higher with the intent of empting the pockets of all short sellers. The result could be a large increase in the value of the shares of whomever might be implementing this hypothesized large and continuous buy program. $420 may be their target (guess why), but as this process gathers momentum the share price could well overshoot.

Can Elon please announce that he’ll be buying more Tesla shares with his SpaceX earnings every quarter indefinitely? This would be the right time for it.

 

[Sudre]

I just want to see if this is really going to be as predictable as it appears.
This isn't technicals... this is just chicken scratching.

 

[capster]

Marketwatch: Tesla’s stock rally costing shorts $1.6 billion

another article about Ihor's post.

Breaking news: This just in, more blood in the water attracts more sharks.

Especially when the sharks know their prey’s collective limit, be it $8 billion or $10 billion.