Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZeApelido]

We're all elated, maybe even shocked, with the recent ATH's and continued run on the stock, looks likely to continue with Q4 expected by many (not us here of course, 83k max!) record deliveries and the possibility of profits for the quarter, and MIC deliveries at the same time.

But take a step back for a moment and think about it, what's actually happening is what we've been predicting for years. Tesla has been totally misrepresented by much of the media, to the point where they thought they were going BK. For those of us following the reality, in detail, it's no surprise at all. While the bears make everyone look the other way, Tesla quietly went about its business, building capacity, pushing into new markets, iteratively improving the products and changing strategy with agility when necessary.

I think what finally exposed the emperor's new clothes has been the "Tesla killers" that have recently come to market, which have been anything but. This must have been a major WTF moment for many and forced a rethink at the status-quo and for many to take a serious look at Tesla and the reality, re-evaluate the situation and have an epiphany that all they though they knew was wrong.

So for most of the investment world this is, indeed, a big shock. For use here, it's playing-out exactly as expected.

Mark "O.J. Simpson" Spiegal is still looking for the real (Tesla) killer

 

[SteveG3]

I'd really like to see Cathie Wood and other bulls change their approach to those, like Adam Jonas today, pounding the misinformation "but automaker" false overvaluation narrative.

Cathie, Gali, et al, please, something, like,

"Yes, a big component of Tesla is automotive sales to consumers. For that part of the business, thoroughly agree, let's value Tesla as an automaker. Let's apply the metrics, PEG, etc., to Tesla that any automaker 1) for many years past and many years to come growing revenues and units sold annually at 20X the rate of the rest of its industry, and 2) with a drivetrain that is 25% more efficient than their peers... let's value Tesla like any automaker would be valued with those gigantic peer beating metrics,

Now, as to the tech component of Tesla.

There is no peer group for a company arguably within 2-3 years of having a Robotaxi Fleet. Tesla is in that position due to its in house software development, in house chip design, and its unmatched over-the-air collection of data. If anyone is arguably a peer, it is Waymo... clearly a tech company. We, of course, appreciate that there is a speculative element to when Robotaxi tech will ready, and we discount that in our models.

Then there is Tesla's emerging energy storage business. It is the tech development of these massive battery systems that is making solar and wind plus battery cheaper than fossil fuels on a utility grid scale level. A developmental lead in materials science up-ending a massive industry, what is that if not a tech story?"

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Yes, FINRA daily short selling data shows that short selling continues unabated.

Unlike the 420 puffers, I'm holding my dry powder until the short squeeze starts in ernest. I have $50K in cash on the sidelines waiting to add fuel to that fire.

Now let's keep sparking matches. Burn, baby, BURN.

Cheers!

Ok let us know when it starts. I got $30k locked and loaded.

 

[TrendTrader007]

324 $400 Jan 2022 $tsla

 

[mad474]

So, If you are in europe and have a stop loss it won't execute until December 27th ?

Confirmed today for TSLA in EUR

 

[EV Promoter]

Not feeling any of those theories. Don’t have a theory, just not down with those.

Fair enough, unless you're not buying into fundamentals, that many don't realize IT'S a theory.
That often doesn't work at all and the quote goes straight into the opposite direction or starts rallies or dips without a valid reason.
Which is exactly why other theories are born

 

[humbaba]

If the recovery holds... its conceivable will close in the green again. Not that I expect that -- after all, this rise has to level at some point -- but it would just be freaking hilarious if the short attack fizzled and $TSLA set a fifth consecutive ATH

 

[Sancho]

don’t understand why everyone still gets caught up with what MS or any firm or analyst writes in his/her little note to ‘clients’. it’s nonsense.

this is the same clown that asks outlandish questions during every conf call that have little to do with auto manufacturing, and everything to do with far out future prospects.
Yet...today he conveniently pivots back to saying tesla is just another auto OEM, saying that the narrative will change -

what he’s really saying is that he and MS are attempting to dictate the narrative. and he’s not even shy about it.

he ALWAYS writes in a way to sabotage the REAL narrative and portray his/MSs.

he’s a lying manipulative dirtbag. period. always has been.

but nobody will slap him on the wrist or anything more...he’ll keep getting away with it over and over.

he adds 0 value, only the potential chance to profit from swings due to lies and manipulation. if that’s your bag, go for it. otherwise don’t get hung up on the horseshit that comes out his mouth, holidays or not.

happy holidays and new year everyone.

I’ve had trouble deciding whether Jonas is a whore to TSLA bear clients, or just desperately wants to be the smartest guy in the room, able to elucidate an uber bull and uber bear case, creatively and outlandishly.

But this isn’t the first example of the timing of a report that reeks of manipulation.

He’s a whore.

Merry Christmas.

 

[elasalle]

Not doing it now, but thinking selling a few covered calls would get me a FSD upgrade

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Gonna wait out this dip so I can buy my 1 share at $420.69

I still don't get the .69 part. I would rather have one at 420.00 Did Elon say he was taking Tesla private at 420.69? I'm sure it's in this thread somewhere, but I have to skip about ten pages at a time to keep up.

 

[elasalle]

SP seems to be in recovery mode ... AJ BS getting negated? Also, looks like Shorts are out of ammo for any bear raid type attacks?

 

[Todd Burch]

I still don't get the .69 part. I would rather have one at 420.00 Did Elon say he was taking Tesla private at 420.69? I'm sure it's in this thread somewhere, but I have to skip about ten pages at a time to keep up.

You’ll learn about it when you’re older.

 

[EVDRVN]

Mark "O.J. Simpson" Spiegal is still looking for the real (Tesla) killer

We al know it exists:

Russian Drivers Unveil Knockoff of Tesla Cybertruck - The Moscow Times

 

[Todd Burch]

SP seems to be in recovery mode ... AJ BS getting negated? Also, looks like Shorts are out of ammo for any bear raid type attacks?

Out of ammo AND money...what a terrible position to be in.

 

[EVMeister]

Tango down. Jonas neutralised.

 

[Tslynk67]

A solid point.

To add to that, we must also realize this run-up is not the end of the bear case.

There will come a time when the mood on TMC is one of gloom and frustration, since the stock price will have dropped/have been depressed massively by some FUD-stories spinning the facts.

Therefore the above post by @2Pearls is not without truth in the sense that options are really a double-edged sword. They can make or break your bankroll. The deceased Twitter stock guru "Option Sniper" may have turned out to be a fraud, his advice regarding discipline and carefull bankroll management when trading options should be taken seriously.

Not that I want to be a Negative Nancy right now, but let us stay aware that the current state of optimism and elation is only temporary and that the war between Tesla and the short sellers is far from over. They are only regrouping.

Even the slightest doubt cast by Tesla's P&D report or ER will be (mis)used by shorts to depress the stock price. Since we are at ATH, many more than usual are willing to get out now to see if they can get back in.

When that happens, stay long, stay strong. (except if you're holding options )

Word.

My current options may be worth $20k, but my common shares are >10x and I'm only "planning" to sell when we either get a dramatic squeeze or somewhere above $4k - of course material information might change that plan, but as of now...

BTW, GREEN!

 

[HG Wells]

GREEN

 

[Tslynk67]

Yah, 420, my old friend!!

 

[Chickenlittle]

I haven’t discussed option strategies for a while but let me suggest a very low risk one. Perhaps you may believe 420 a good level to take some profit off the table but concerned about missing further run up in the short term with production numbers to be released. You could sell a call for Jan 10 strike price 420 (about $15 dollars and buy a call for same date strike 425 for $12). You will get $300 dollars cash. If the stock continues to run the call you bought will almost (less $5/share) make up the difference in large run up price and you will recoup the additional run up. The call you sold will give you the 420 you wanted to remove and cover $3 of $5 reduction per share (with the net share today’s transaction produced). The only risk of the above is if the share price is less than 420 at expiration. You walk away with 300 dollars and still own the shares having missed the chance to sell at 420. If the Shari price expires at between 420 and 425 than you still sell your shares getting 423 instead of 420 per share and the run up didn’t occur or corrected before expiration date

 

[printf42]

Hey look, a totally naturally price drop.

There it goes!