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Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

HG Wells

Martian Embassy
Apr 5, 2016
2,082
15,152
Visas Tuesdays 2-4
Got this text now:

We currently expect your Model 3 to be built on 12/31. Please prepare to take delivery at our New Year's Eve Delivery Event at the Tesla Factory (45500 Fremont Blvd, Fremont, CA 94538). More details to follow later this week. We look forward to seeing you on the 31st!

Ordered 11/18 - Red w/ Black Interior LR AWD 19" wheel No FSD
VIN in source code 12/21
VIN on page 12/24
Text for delivery 12/24
Delivery appt @ 2pm 12/31 Burbank

The text states they are building the car 12/29 and I should have it the 31st. No option for scheduling delivery, they are picking one. Fine with me, lets just do this.

WOW, last minute deliveries. Order placed mid November.
 

lascavarian

Active Member
Jul 27, 2017
1,150
5,963
usa
To be very clear about my opinions, I think both Fremont and Sparks are very challenged to have any substantial growth because of water limitations. The planning horizon for these projects is at least two decades. Thus I expect all significant growth for Tesla to be located in areas that are relatively resilient to climate change.

Just some idea riffing...

If only there were a tunneling company that could bore an aquaduct from the large fresh water supplies available on the far eastern side of the Rockies. If only there were a way to use solar/wind renewable energy to pump the water to an elevated storage location to recover the energy of pumping at the time the energy is needed and providing monetizable water/energy in the process. If only we could move secondary resources along with the water for delivery hundreds of miles away. If only, if only some of this made sense....

How about a consortium of displaced industries work on such a project cooperatively funded by a very small tax on USMCA in partnership with tech leadership. A win for labor, a win for capital, a win for regional interests, a win for international neighbors, so much winning. If only we could develop this technology in the case of one day needing it on another planet. If only we had some vision and guts to fix our own future by working with our neighbors and friends with the tools we have today.

The light of hope and opportunity is wonderful mixture.

Peace
 

LN1_Casey

Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus
Mar 6, 2019
2,019
10,062
Oahu, Hawaii
Don't forget the water shortage. It seems very unlikely that further major growth would be possible for Reno. Substantial output increases might be were continuous efficiency improvements materialize. Probably the most important area of improvement needed is reducing need for water. Housing supply increases are obviously easy to do physically, but from whence comes the water supply? Water rights and supply have plagued this region, including Southern California since before I was born. Above all issues California Central Valley agriculture looms large.
The Reno/Sparks area gets it's water from the Truckee River:
Water Rights | Truckee Meadows Water Authority
That cryptic paper illustrates the issue. Zero new construction is possible there without acquiring water rights. Water rights actually do not convey the right to water if there is not enough to go around. The odds of inadeqaute flows from the Truckee River are rising very rapidly:
Science in the Truckee River Basin
Note that the Sierra Nevada snowpack is the primary source for Lake Tahoe which feeds the Truckee River.

Without going into excessive detail there will not be any substantial increase in water rights for GF-1 nor will there be for and major residential projects. Major conservation efforts might allow more growth, but without them any expansion will be self-defeating. There is no real disagreement about the crisis brewing but there is enormous disagreement about how to deal with it.

The first paragraph talked about Southern California only because almost the entirety of California (SFO East and South) and Nevada depends ultimately on snowpack. Wildfires happen due in large part to very dry conditions. Those happen when snowpack is inadequate to feed the rivers, streams and soil.

To be very clear about my opinions, I think both Fremont and Sparks are very challenged to have any substantial growth because of water limitations. The planning horizon for these projects is at least two decades. Thus I expect all significant growth for Tesla to be located in areas that are relatively resilient to climate change.

Is anybody in any doubt about this?
Here's a recent article about the issue, although it speaks almost entirely to the Las Vegas issues:
Water scarcity in Nevada hits 'critical mass,' state director of natural resources says

With all of the severe Water restrictions for growing at GF1, do you think maybe Overlord Musk will build a hyper loop to GF1 from another location? It’d allow a large populous shift from immediate Nevada area, and allow more bodies for the factory.

An hour commute is reasonable, and an hour on a Hyperloop train can be very far away.
 

printf42

Active Member
Sep 29, 2018
1,240
12,393
CA
Not really FUD. Tesla has a long and well-documented (on this board, even) history of open-source license non-compliance. I hope they get their act together at some point.
When you see CNBC experts asserting the law suits would cost Tesla tens of billions and bankwarpt the company, you would know what is FUD.

Where in reality, all that Tesla needs to do is write some attributions, bundle up open source codes they touched and put them on a server, then train people not to forget doing that in the future.
 
Last edited:

nativewolf

Member
Jul 21, 2015
754
1,550
viena va United States
Just some idea riffing...

If only there were a tunneling company that could bore an aquaduct from the large fresh water supplies available on the far eastern side of the Rockies. If only there were a way to use solar/wind renewable energy to pump the water to an elevated storage location to recover the energy of pumping at the time the energy is needed and providing monetizable water/energy in the process. If only we could move secondary resources along with the water for delivery hundreds of miles away. If only, if only some of this made sense....

How about a consortium of displaced industries work on such a project cooperatively funded by a very small tax on USMCA in partnership with tech leadership. A win for labor, a win for capital, a win for regional interests, a win for international neighbors, so much winning. If only we could develop this technology in the case of one day needing it on another planet. If only we had some vision and guts to fix our own future by working with our neighbors and friends with the tools we have today.

The light of hope and opportunity is wonderful mixture.

Peace
Seems great until you realize that would devastate the other ecosystems just like the Colorado getting stripped and the famous and beutiful Colorado delta becoming a desert. You never want to shift water from one watershed to another. Period. Every part of the ecosystem is dependent upon those moisture conditions.

The answer is to move to where the water is, not to bring water to the F'ing desert. Chicago has lots and lots of water. That's a good start but hardly unique.

One of the earliest environmental lawsuits was regarding the Chicago river when St Louis sued Chicago because Chicago had turned the river around backwards and had it run from Chicago to the Mississippi instead of Lake Michigan. It kept the lake clean enough to drink and polluted the Mississippi which was the source of St Louis drinking water. They lost but Chicago eventually cleaned up the river. Lake Michigan is to this day very very clean and Chicago has a near endless supply of clean potable water. St Louis got revenge (ok, here comes a joke) they opened a bottle plant, put the Mississippi water into dark brown bottles and shipped it back to Chicago- they called it Budweiser.
 

nativewolf

Member
Jul 21, 2015
754
1,550
viena va United States
With all of the severe Water restrictions for growing at GF1, do you think maybe Overlord Musk will build a hyper loop to GF1 from another location? It’d allow a large populous shift from immediate Nevada area, and allow more bodies for the factory.

An hour commute is reasonable, and an hour on a Hyperloop train can be very far away.
Better than moving water. But I guess....why not just put the factory somewhere that isn't a desert.
 

Mkorpal

Member
Mar 17, 2016
961
2,991
Denver
Just some idea riffing...

If only there were a tunneling company that could bore an aquaduct from the large fresh water supplies available on the far eastern side of the Rockies. If only there were a way to use solar/wind renewable energy to pump the water to an elevated storage location to recover the energy of pumping at the time the energy is needed and providing monetizable water/energy in the process. If only we could move secondary resources along with the water for delivery hundreds of miles away. If only, if only some of this made sense....

How about a consortium of displaced industries work on such a project cooperatively funded by a very small tax on USMCA in partnership with tech leadership. A win for labor, a win for capital, a win for regional interests, a win for international neighbors, so much winning. If only we could develop this technology in the case of one day needing it on another planet. If only we had some vision and guts to fix our own future by working with our neighbors and friends with the tools we have today.

The light of hope and opportunity is wonderful mixture.

Peace

Hate to break it to you, but the eastern Rockies already take water from the western slopes. There is none available.
 

ggr

Expert in Dunning-Kruger Effect!
Mar 24, 2011
6,983
27,545
San Diego, CA
If they were to further accumulate through PIF, they would hit the 5% mark after just 800k more shares according to the Yahoo and Nasdaq listings. Assuming these get updated quarterly, we should know more next week.
They are required to report to the SEC within 14 days (IIRC) of hitting 5%. That would make the news.
 

Unpilot

Sell order in at $5999.99
Dec 2, 2017
4,865
37,588
A Coast
I must have not been clear before about the purpose of my private island. Nobody is invited. Ever. I won’t even be accepting shipwrecked people. Go to @KarenRei ‘s island, she actually wants people to party with her and she bakes. Win - win.
Hmm...well I guess it will have to be like Elysium only much lower. I will have my anti gravity party right over your island.

Ship wreck survivers welcome of course.
 

anthonyj

Stonks
May 16, 2018
2,377
18,264
Naples, FL
Happy holidays everyone! Sorry for the absence, been a crazy year but should be back for good now. As it relates to Tesla, think this is just the beginning. Lot of good things on the come next year.

PS I was right about this being a generational opportunity at 260! Just turned into a multigenerational opportunity at 180 first.
Thanks Cathie! Happy holidays! :)
 

pnungesser

BarNun
Dec 9, 2015
281
1,288
Mill Spring, NC
Seems great until you realize that would devastate the other ecosystems just like the Colorado getting stripped and the famous and beutiful Colorado delta becoming a desert. You never want to shift water from one watershed to another. Period. Every part of the ecosystem is dependent upon those moisture conditions.

The answer is to move to where the water is, not to bring water to the F'ing desert. Chicago has lots and lots of water. That's a good start but hardly unique.

One of the earliest environmental lawsuits was regarding the Chicago river when St Louis sued Chicago because Chicago had turned the river around backwards and had it run from Chicago to the Mississippi instead of Lake Michigan. It kept the lake clean enough to drink and polluted the Mississippi which was the source of St Louis drinking water. They lost but Chicago eventually cleaned up the river. Lake Michigan is to this day very very clean and Chicago has a near endless supply of clean potable water. St Louis got revenge (ok, here comes a joke) they opened a bottle plant, put the Mississippi water into dark brown bottles and shipped it back to Chicago- they called it Budweiser.

Let's not forget the California water project which brought water for the northern reservoirs and the dams in the Sierra to southern Cali and the central valley. Whatever you might think about that, Cali and the rest of the US would be completely different without that project. A huge percentage of US crops are dependent upon that system. I'm glad I didn't have to write the Environmental Impact Statement for either of those projects. No way either could be construed today, even with Trump's EPA.
 

jerry33

(S85-3/2/13 traded in) X LR: F2611##-3/27/20
Mar 8, 2012
19,734
22,832
Texas
This is 100% speculation:

Tesla could consider St. Louis for production.

1. True manufacturing is HQ here. True is a large manufacturer of heavy stainless commercial kitchen equipment. (Cybertruck skill sets)

2. 2 car plants have closed in the past 15 years - Fenton (GM I believe, demolished) and Hazelwood (Ford, unknown condition). This implies both a working class and infrastructure to move automobiles.

3. St. Louis is (very) desperate for economic growth and has already shown it’s willing to throw in the kitchen sink for large companies (Amazon).

Just $.02
I recall having to chase down about 100 trucks to inspect the tires because the St. Louis factory workers left water in the tires (well over a gallon per tire). Had to scrap most of the tires. I'm not sure I would want that quality of worker.
 
  • Informative
  • Disagree
Reactions: Jo- and lklundin

BenPrice

Supporting Member
Jun 17, 2018
434
3,505
St. Louis
I recall having to chase down about 100 trucks to inspect the tires because the St. Louis factory workers left water in the tires (well over a gallon per tire). Had to scrap most of the tires. I'm not sure I would want that quality of worker.

We’re good at watching baseball and drinking beer! Ha.

Did their air dryers to compressors fail? I’ve seen some cool air dryer failures - one time it took 2 days to drain a factories (Intralox, New Orleans) tanks and lines. Prior to draining, using a compressed air line was like a pressure washer, lol.

Prior to my current aerospace gig in Redmond I worked in nuclear medicine manufacturing in St. Louis. We have some very talented people!
 

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