Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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[M3Rider]

Ross Gerber on CNN Business, sorry if re-post.

Ross Gerber on Twitter

I love how he's busting those bs analysts
"The analysts have been so wrong about this company for so long..."

He's done it a few times already, respect.

Maybe this will speed up the public perception of them being clowns, the one who spoke yesterday will be revealed as such in just a few short days.

 

[X Fan]

@DragonWatch
I read the WaPo article by Charles Lane. I vaguely recall he may be member of “Manhattan Institute”.[yes it seems]{Is There A Public Pension Crisis? | Manhattan Institute} (Will check later) a bunch of right wing reactionary radicals for the status quo, years ago seemed to hate renewables (which disrupted revenue streams from utilities), now EV’s which disrupt other fossil fuel revenue streams.
They either fail to see the future, or see it and it terrifies them as their income streams become disrupted.

FWIW: the Charles Lane from Wapo is not a right wing person; rather, he shades left.

 

[Nocturnal]

Dangit, by the time I got online to buy based on the pre-market price it had already jumped.

 

[Krugerrand]

There's a huge impact _now already_ in the region where I live. The Stuttgart region is?/was? one of the world's leading centers for the automotive industry. Over 200,000 people work directly in the automotive cluster - which corresponds to almost 20% of all employees in the region.

I have relatives in that area who work in automotive and have done so for more than one generation.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Oh yes - the one with "intermediate speed NOA" as Musk calls it - or City NOA. It has features described in the order page. Infact they have had for almost a year now (see autonomy day and @verygreen videos).

But, it is still not in a good enough shape to be shipped to even EAP. I was hoping they would send this to EAP in Q4 and that would be FC. Now hoping they can ship it soon in Q1 to EAP and by the end of Q1 to everyone - otherwise they won't be able to recognize a lot of FSD revenue I was hoping for in Q1. Some $250M in extra revenue would make a big difference in Q1.

I thought I read somewhere that it was enabled for EAP folks in this round of updates... (EAP here meaning really-real EAP, not the fake EAP those of us who had pre-ordered FSD got)

 

[KarenRei]

I think I've found a new video that rivals the "burning BMW being put out by sewage" video for being an apt analogy of the state of BMW's financial outlook

Elektromobilität-Forum on Twitter

 

[Yuri_G]

@Troy thinks deliveries will be 108,400.

Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) on Twitter

Troy overestimated by 4k last quarter. That would put us right around 83k q4.

Spoiler

105k

 

[woodisgood]

I think I've found a new video that rivals the "burning BMW being put out by sewage" video for being an apt analogy of the state of BMW's financial outlook

Elektromobilität-Forum on Twitter

The comparisons to Summon are inevitable...

 

[Krugerrand]

Ross Gerber on CNN Business, sorry if re-post.

Ross Gerber on Twitter

He looks so much like Jason Bateman.

 

[woodisgood]

I have relatives in that area who work in automotive and have done so for more than one generation.

Sure, someone's gotta keep the factories rodent-free.

 

[VValleyEV]

Out of curiousity (and perhaps a lapse of judgement) I started a twitter discussion with a Tesla (and TSLA) basher, no clue if he is TSLAQ or whatever.

His subject kept changing after my questions about his challenges to Shanghai production capacity and and then about profitability, then when I moved onto margins I got this response that I haven’t seen before:

“...Well no - their margins aren’t higher than traditional OEMs. Traditional OEMs include R&D in their COGs and Tesla does not. ...”

I haven’t done my own math, but everything I read says that Tesla’s margins are now in the 20% range, giving them something like $5k revenue over manufacturing cost for an average Model 3, vs more like 10% for folks like Ford and $1k revenue over manufacturing costs. Is he claiming that this difference is a fraudulent claim because Tesla costs exclude R&D and others do not?

Is there a good source for “real” margin comparisons that will verify Tesla’s competitive margin advantage? Pehaps the numbers get distorted by the capital expenditures in support of exponential manufacturing growth, which only applies to Tesla?

Thanks for your help.

 

[Navin]

Nice call @Navin. Wish I had some dry powder.

Here is one more call. Think we will close out strong today. Shorts don’t want to be faced with a big premarket pop on a positive P&D report. Think cockroaches moving under the sofa when the lights turn on.

 

[EVNow]

I thought I read somewhere that it was enabled for EAP folks in this round of updates... (EAP here meaning really-real EAP, not the fake EAP those of us who had pre-ordered FSD got)

Yes, I've read those rumors too. But "usual" EAP hasn't got it. That makes Q1 for City NOA to everyone iffy.

 

[Causalien]

I love how he's busting those bs analysts
"The analysts have been so wrong about this company for so long..."

He's done it a few times already, respect.

Maybe this will speed up the public perception of them being clowns, the one who spoke yesterday will be revealed as such in just a few short days.

They pop up like weed.

TSLA coverage should be like the widowmaker trade. You get pushed to the spotlight to offer a negative rating so your firm's traders can profit. Then you get laid off for being so wrong.

Eventually your wife divorces you because you cannot afford the higher AC cost in the summer from climate change.

 

[Nocturnal]

I thought I read somewhere that it was enabled for EAP folks in this round of updates... (EAP here meaning really-real EAP, not the fake EAP those of us who had pre-ordered FSD got)

At least not for people on HW2.5 (I have real EAP and FSD)

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

Oh yes - the one with "intermediate speed NOA" as Musk calls it - or City NOA. It has features described in the order page. Infact they have had for almost a year now (see autonomy day and @verygreen videos).

But, it is still not in a good enough shape to be shipped to even EAP. I was hoping they would send this to EAP in Q4 and that would be FC. Now hoping they can ship it soon in Q1 to EAP and by the end of Q1 to everyone - otherwise they won't be able to recognize a lot of FSD revenue I was hoping for in Q1. Some $250M in extra revenue would make a big difference in Q1.

Over the holidays I have been thinking about the impacts that FSD will have. In the short term there will be the direct financial impact of both the deferred revenue recognition you refer to and the ongoing margin improvement due to new FSD revenues. In the long term there is the potential for robotaxi but it seems like all the companies in this space are finding it is taking longer to achieve than was originally hoped. However I also think that FSD will become a major positive selling point to people that are not currently attracted to Tesla.

Competitors such as Mercedes and BMW will have to consider how they respond and I am not sure what they can do in the short term. The longer they leave it, the more difficult it will be. Do they follow Tesla by fitting the necessary sensor suite and compute hardware to all their cars? That would be additional cost and a lot of design and manufacturing modifications (given the large number of different models they produce).

Bottom line is it looks like FSD could well generate additional demand for Tesla and increase the competitive 'moat'.

 

[wipster]

I think I've found a new video that rivals the "burning BMW being put out by sewage" video for being an apt analogy of the state of BMW's financial outlook

Elektromobilität-Forum on Twitter

Need to have BOC's "I'm Burning For You" playing in the background... LOL

 

[woodisgood]

Over the holidays I have been thinking about the impacts that FSD will have. In the short term there will be the direct financial impact of both the deferred revenue recognition you refer to and the ongoing margin improvement due to new FSD revenues. In the long term there is the potential for robotaxi but it seems like all the companies in this space are finding it is taking longer to achieve than was originally hoped. However I also think that FSD will become a major positive selling point to people that are not currently attracted to Tesla.

Competitors such as Mercedes and BMW will have to consider how they respond and I am not sure what they can do in the short term. The longer they leave it, the more difficult it will be. Do they follow Tesla by fitting the necessary sensor suite and compute hardware to all their cars? That would be additional cost and a lot of design and manufacturing modifications (given the large number of different models they produce).

Bottom line is it looks like FSD could well generate additional demand for Tesla and increase the competitive 'moat'.

FSD as a convenience feature will attract some buyers, sure, but that's a really short-term view on the impact, and relevant only for the transition period from non-autonomous human-driven vehicles to autonomous personal and shared vehicles. How long is this transition? Hard to say. I don't think Robotaxis are a mere year or two away, but I'm pretty sure it's less than ten.

Once L4 becomes a reality, everything changes, and the traditional model of selling vehicles to individuals basically dies giving way to a completely new ride and fleet share market worth....a lot. This is a painful truth that many of us may not like because we love driving and we love owning automobiles. I am not sure the generation currently in their teens and early twenties shares our love. It's going to be a bygone era very soon that many of us will wax nostalgic about. As a vertically integrated company, Tesla will be well-positioned to capitalize in a big way...not IF, but WHEN they solve FSD.

 

[mickificki]

I love how he's busting those bs analysts
"The analysts have been so wrong about this company for so long..."

He's done it a few times already, respect.

Maybe this will speed up the public perception of them being clowns, the one who spoke yesterday will be revealed as such in just a few short days.

Definitely nice to see Ross and Gali out there representing the TSLA views and gaining more airtime at recognized media outlets.