anthonyj
Stonks
I don’t even know what to say
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
According to the video, he's exceedingly long Tesla.
Nice try. Might have been better watching it first rather than just reading the title.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Yes, it's been posted here. It turns out he's still far more bullish than bearish - he just thinks there is some share price volatility coming up that he can capitalize on. It's very hard to do so I don't recommend trying it. And I'll be surprised even if Jack Rickard can pull it off, as experienced as he is.
You're correct, this probably is a bubble.Not sure why you think I'm "freaked out" and I never asked you to decide anything. I pointed out the decision I need to make. My concerns are,
1) Q4 profit numbers
2) Q1 quarter results, production and profit
3) anything else that might tank the stock in the next 5 months.
Not likely, but something could happen in China that would stop or slow production. Even if it has little impact on anything real, the stock price would likely drop a lot.
Musk could get back on twitter saying something incredibly stupid... well, maybe not. He wouldn't do that, would he?
It only would take one quarter of lower model 3 deliveries and the world will panic that demand for the model 3 is dropping with commensurate stock price drop. That one is a real concern. For me it would take three or more quarters of lower deliveries to believe model 3 demand is slowing which may just happen when the aquatic Y comes out. But that won't be by the end of May.
As a fan of history, it reminds me of a certain antipodean aquatic bubble from many a year ago. Did you know that perhaps the smartest person in history invested in this maladventure and lost a bunch of money. If that's not a reason to sell Tesla now, I don't know what is. I'm far more daft than perhaps the smartest person in history, so what chance do I have to understand stonks.
Other things in common with the aforementioned bubble and Tesla:
- The Queen has granted Elon a monopoly on trade with South America and the surrounding Islands
- Elon is trying to deal in the slave trade, or as it is colloquially known "autonomous vehicles"
- Tesla is definitely hunting whales
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StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
BTW., did they mention that around ~5 billion dollars of Tesla's long term debt are convertible notes, which can be paid by Tesla in shares instead of cash, if the price is above a given strike price? All the strike prices of the convertible notes are comfortably in the money right now, in the $250-$360 range.
This reduces Tesla's debt leverage and improves their balance sheet enormously.
For example, had the stock price been above $360 around March last year, Tesla would have been able to pay their $920m of convertible notes in shares - instead they drained their working capital by $920m cash in a particularly weak quarter.
j6Lpi429@3j
Closed
Pretty much every time I have sold any TSLA stock I have eventually regretted it. I have my long term (apprx 1k shares) I'll keep for at least another 3 or 4 years, but I also play with a bunch of shares on margin. I intend to hold them through earnings at least, into Q1, maybe until end Q1, hoping for model Y to start to ship.
first shares I bought on margin for tesla was 2016 at $155.
Hold!
first shares I bought on margin for tesla was 2016 at $155.
Hold!
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
$482.76 worksCorrect. 470 is not sustainable. We will probably hit 480 tomorrow (or later today).
TSLA mkt cap = F + GM
Yes. Pretty much exactly what she said. With the price above $350 they convert to stock shares essentially and they will pay off $4 billion of debt in the next year or two due to this. So if you are worried about the balance sheet this essentially cleans it up a lot!
Sort of a click bait title but if you can get through his slow talking yeah. He is just hedging. He is clearly very bullish on Tesla and loves the products.
There was speculation before it could be Tencent but I would think we would have seen a regulatory finding by now if that were the case.
Admittedly I have very little experience with trading such volatile securities. But it seems to me that there is a good chance that the current upwards trend may continue for a while, powered by shorts being squeezed, institutions deciding that now is the time to buy or whatever.
So today I rolled my Jan. 17 320$ calls that were up 420% to something with a lot more leverage, Sep.17 700$ calls, which have expiry beyond my other calls.
About the only thing I feel sure about right now with my options trading, is that I have to learn fast.
PS. With a lot more international sales, how could Tesla possibly report earnings (very) early?
Sudre
Active Member
I am simply posting this so everyone takes a moment and thinks about the price movement.
I am not even going to guess a top since currently shorts keep buying large amount every day according to volumebot.com
Let's just say something is crazy... either me or....
I am not even going to guess a top since currently shorts keep buying large amount every day according to volumebot.com
Let's just say something is crazy... either me or....
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
You're correct, this probably is a bubble.
As a fan of history, it reminds me of a certain antipodean aquatic bubble from many a year ago. Did you know that perhaps the smartest person in history invested in this maladventure and lost a bunch of money. If that's not a reason to sell Tesla now, I don't know what is. I'm far more daft than perhaps the smartest person in history, so what chance do I have to understand stonks.
Other things in common with the aforementioned bubble and Tesla:
- The Queen has granted Elon a monopoly on trade with South America and the surrounding Islands
- Elon is trying to deal in the slave trade, or as it is colloquially known "autonomous vehicles"
- Tesla is definitely hunting whales
There's an interesting but little known chapter of history which played out during the peak of the South Sea Company bubble:
Barron's - 20 minutes ago: Tesla Stock Hit a Record Again. Here’s Why It Can Rise Even More.
Excerpt:
Black said in December that Tesla stock, then around $400, could double.
In his latest series of tweets, Black said Tesla's market value is justifiable, writing that the "stock market is a discounting mechanism -- looks forward not back." He thinks Tesla's annual net income will be $5 billion by 2024 and $15 billion by 2029, against a combined $11 billion annually for Ford and GM now and heading lower.
Excerpt:
Black said in December that Tesla stock, then around $400, could double.
In his latest series of tweets, Black said Tesla's market value is justifiable, writing that the "stock market is a discounting mechanism -- looks forward not back." He thinks Tesla's annual net income will be $5 billion by 2024 and $15 billion by 2029, against a combined $11 billion annually for Ford and GM now and heading lower.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
The longer you hold those, the more risk you are exposed to. A lot can happen between now and Sept. 17, much of it beyond TSLA's control. This doesn't bother me as a shareholder too much but it would if I had a significant option position (and it sounds like you do). Was the plan just to ride them up to just before or after Q4 earnings and then take profits (hopefully)?
It's not realistic to expect that. Very, very low probability. But that doesn't mean the thought of it isn't nice! And this is Tesla we're talking about!
@Curt Renz, your thoughts on where we are in squeeze and margin-call land? Obviously some of that is happening, but I'm not experienced enough looking at a green line traversing up and to the right to know whether we're seeing institutional buying and just some covering, lots of short covering, etc...in your opinion, where are we in the life cycle of a short squeeze?
I would have guessed that large jumps at the start of the day are mostly margin calls, but the steady appreciation during the day seems like institutional buying. Need extra advice, one Tesla fan to another
I'm eagerly awaiting this Friday's Nasdaq short interest publication.
Reposting the below since early earnings has been on my mind too. We could have an announced date as early as this week.
2016:
Q1: Announced 4/20 / Held 5/4 (EPS: -2.13)
Q2: Announced 7/19 / Held 8/3 (EPS: -2.09)
Q3: Announced 10/7 / Held 10/26 (EPS: 0.14)
Q4: Announced 2/2 / Held 2/22 (EPS: -0.60)
2017:
Q1: Announced 4/13 / Held 5/3 (EPS: -2.04)
Q2: Announced 7/11 / Held 8/2 (EPS: -2.04)
Q3: Announced 10/19 / Held 11/1 (EPS: -3.70)
Q4: Announced 2/2 / Held 2/7 (EPS: -4.05)
2018:
Q1: Announced 4/19 / Held 5/2 (EPS: -4.19)
Q2: Announced 7/19 / Held 8/1 (EPS: -4.22)
Q3: Announced 10/22 / Held 10/24 (EPS: 1.75)
Q4: Announced 1/18 / Held 1/30 (EPS: 0.78)
2019:
Q1: Announced 4/11 / Held 4/24 (EPS: -4.10)
Q2: Announced 7/11 / Held 7/24 (EPS: -2.31)
Q3: Announced 10/9 / Held 10/23 (EPS: 0.78)
Q4: ???????????????
Everyone considering selling TSLA stock should really step back from the internet for a while.
Pull out a napkin. Turn it over to the back. Now do some basic math.
Take a guess at how much of the worldwide car market this company could capture, then figure out what the overall market is and how many cars that would be per year for tesla. Figure out what the profit per car is, then pick a statistic to get an average price. I used p/e. Take a few minutes to do the math for shares, earnings etc...This is a way to come up with a company value in the future, then you can do a present value discount. I don't know how to do that well.
FYI, many years ago when I did the above calculations, I recall my price target was $2,000-$3,000
Now do the same with the SEMI, add that in.
Figure something out with tesla energy- I find this tough to do.
Do the same with autonomy. I find this tough to do.
Doing the above can really hope one to know what the future might well look like.
Did master plan part UNO come through?
Have you read master plan part deux?
Now, lets say you dont want to do the math, and you still trust what the company publishes. Just look at EM compensation package and figure out what the different tranches mean for your future if he achieves them. Didn't he reach all the previous tranches?
How many corded home phones are there today?
How many horse drawn buggies are in use?
How permeated did the birth control pill get in society?
How has the PC market done since inception? How about radio and TV?
How about new ways of doing old things, like movies by mail and internet replacing stores, and the stores could have done the same thing and new the market was growing.
What if TSLA is doing to transportation what Netflix did to video rental stores. If you are too young to know what a rental store was like, ask someone older, they were everywhere, had large national chains and small mom and pop shops ALL OF WHICH ARE GONE. 20-30 years ago there were blockbuster stores with 50 copies of new release movies sold out. Now blockbuster is gone.
What does the future look like? Doesn't it make sense that it looks like the bill of goods this company is working on? Solar, transport, energy, autonomy?
If you need more fuel for thought, read the latest issue of WON HTMMIS book or Fred Kobricks book The Big Money.
Forget about the internet fools here and there, make your own mind up.
Ignore the groupthink, satisfy your own mind and wallet, it is not your job to join the happy family online.
Pull out a napkin. Turn it over to the back. Now do some basic math.
Take a guess at how much of the worldwide car market this company could capture, then figure out what the overall market is and how many cars that would be per year for tesla. Figure out what the profit per car is, then pick a statistic to get an average price. I used p/e. Take a few minutes to do the math for shares, earnings etc...This is a way to come up with a company value in the future, then you can do a present value discount. I don't know how to do that well.
FYI, many years ago when I did the above calculations, I recall my price target was $2,000-$3,000
Now do the same with the SEMI, add that in.
Figure something out with tesla energy- I find this tough to do.
Do the same with autonomy. I find this tough to do.
Doing the above can really hope one to know what the future might well look like.
Did master plan part UNO come through?
Have you read master plan part deux?
Now, lets say you dont want to do the math, and you still trust what the company publishes. Just look at EM compensation package and figure out what the different tranches mean for your future if he achieves them. Didn't he reach all the previous tranches?
How many corded home phones are there today?
How many horse drawn buggies are in use?
How permeated did the birth control pill get in society?
How has the PC market done since inception? How about radio and TV?
How about new ways of doing old things, like movies by mail and internet replacing stores, and the stores could have done the same thing and new the market was growing.
What if TSLA is doing to transportation what Netflix did to video rental stores. If you are too young to know what a rental store was like, ask someone older, they were everywhere, had large national chains and small mom and pop shops ALL OF WHICH ARE GONE. 20-30 years ago there were blockbuster stores with 50 copies of new release movies sold out. Now blockbuster is gone.
What does the future look like? Doesn't it make sense that it looks like the bill of goods this company is working on? Solar, transport, energy, autonomy?
If you need more fuel for thought, read the latest issue of WON HTMMIS book or Fred Kobricks book The Big Money.
Forget about the internet fools here and there, make your own mind up.
Ignore the groupthink, satisfy your own mind and wallet, it is not your job to join the happy family online.
Johann Koeber
Happy Owner
Sure does feel like 2013 to me.
There were several weeks of daily celebrations. Interrupted by temporary slight drops, which lasted for a few days. Then the ascent continued. It was my first time in a stock trading in this way (I had missed AAPL, AMZN and the German Neuer Markt). I really felt good with TSLA at th time and did not expect the 5 year wait for the next run-up.
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