Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FrankSG]

I just happened to look at the 21 Feb Option Chain, and noticed some unusual things:

There's some really high volume and open interest in $800 and even $900 call options expiring five weeks from now.

It looks like as a result of this, some of the ASK prices have gotten out of whack. I know there can be very large spreads on certain options, but the spread on some of those is absurd. Just look at the $890 and $860 in particular. ASK price is 5-6x the BID price for those.

To me this looks like:

• Some big players are making big bets on a huge squeeze after earnings.
• The market makers are reluctant to sell these at 'normal' prices, so they've significantly increased the ASK price on some of them.

 

[Bunky]

Not sure I remember seeing such bullish price action in AH excluding material news events.

 

[AudubonB]

Too optimistic, by about one whole order of magnitude.

What a DebbieDowner

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Has anyone posted this yet? Would like to get everyone's thoughts on this horrible sales prediction for 2020.

I Am Forecasting Flat Unit Sales For Tesla In 2020

 

[Navin]

Ok. It took me 45 minutes to get thru today’s posts. Can everyone pls take a 12 hour break so I can wake up tomorrow without FOMO

 

[AudubonB]

Not a chance.

 

[Unpilot]

Drove a Uhaul truck all day ....phew it stinks....almost wrecked 10 times watching the Stock ascend in the proper way.

Found out two of my brothers had sold at 475...despite my ALL CAPS WARNING NOT TO SELL! Told them both to buy back in...they said no will wait for the dip

Could not hope to catch up on this thread before bed....but found my cyrstal ball...good things are coming.

Just watch

 

[anthonyj]

Idk why people think me, SpaceCash and TT007 are joking. We are the real bulls and hold OTM calls. We know that TSLA is going to $900 sooner than most think. You can soon send us apologies at
900 DaMoon Way
Mars, M.W.G. 69420

This is what's happening. Tesla is about to report a huge Q4 profit and guide for a small profit in Q1, guaranteeing S&P inclusion. Model Y and battery event next month, Elon following the Chief Investment Officer of the world's largest pension fund in Japan (this guy also hates shorts, hmmm), China and German government probably buying stonk too. Connect the dots you silly bears! $900 in February, $2000 end of year

 

[Singuy]

Has anyone posted this yet? Would like to get everyone's thoughts on this horrible sales prediction for 2020.

I Am Forecasting Flat Unit Sales For Tesla In 2020

These articles can save lives. Let the TeslaQ people read these articles to calm themselves because you know, some are contemplating which roof to jump off of or where to purchase rope.

 

[Unpilot]

These articles can save lives. Let the TeslaQ people read these articles to calm themselves because you know, some are contemplating which roof to jump off of or where to purchase rope.

That writer is on crack or something.

 

[FrankSG]

Has anyone posted this yet? Would like to get everyone's thoughts on this horrible sales prediction for 2020.

I Am Forecasting Flat Unit Sales For Tesla In 2020

The worst I can see them doing is 570k in 2020.

More likely, I think they'll do 650k. Potentially 700k if Model Y ramp goes very well, and Model Y also reaches volume production at Giga 3 by Q3 or Q4.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

We're pretty much locked into $380-620 until investors realize the value of Energy. A bit more squeezing up is sure gonna be fun tho!

It'll be years more until folks realize this isn't a car company.

 

[Curt Renz]

Based on today's closing options open interest for the Friday expiration, Opricot calculates MaxPain to be $390. Don't laugh. That's due to the incredibly large open interest in puts at strikes less than half today's closing share price. At the $50 strike alone, there remains open over a 100,000 put contracts involving over 10 million shares.

While this will not be a Triple Witching (quarterly) expiration, it will be a high volume monthly expiration for what earlier were LEAPs that might have pushed potential profits into the next year (now this year) for tax purposes.

A more meaningful MaxPain target for this expiration can't reasonably be determined until Friday afternoon, when big option writers can survey the nearly final options open interest and volume figures.

Link: Opricot Open Interest|Volume|Max Pain

 

[Electroman]

The worst I can see them doing is 570k in 2020.

More likely, I think they'll do 650k. Potentially 700k if Model Y ramp goes very well, and Model Y also reaches volume production at Giga 3 by Q3 or Q4.

Oh come on.. 650K is twice what they produced last year. Even with Shanghai running full load from day 1, they do not have capacity to make more than 500K. I predict between 450 to 480K. And that is damn good for just two factories, with China production ramping up to full capacity of 3k per week will take another few months.

Let us revisit this post in 12 months

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Oh come on.. 650K is twice what they produced last year. Even with Shanghai running full load from day 1, they do not have capacity to make more than 500K. I predict between 450 to 480K. And that is damn good for just two factories, with China production ramping up to full capacity of 3k per week will take another few months.

Freemont is at a production rate of 420k a year production before model y, which is going to run on it's own line. Giga 3 will likely make at least 100k this year and more likely 200k. 600k is a lot more reasonable than 450 to 480k

 

[mongo]

Oh come on.. 650K is twice what they produced last year. Even with Shanghai running full load from day 1, they do not have capacity to make more than 500K. I predict between 450 to 480K. And that is damn good for just two factories, with China production ramping up to full capacity of 3k per week will take another few months.

Let us revisit this post in 12 months

500k is way pessimistic:
Q4 production: 105k
X 4 = 420k
+ GF3 100k
+ Fremont Y 80k
Total 600 k

Edit: ninjaed by @StarFoxisDown!

 

[Singuy]

LoL, see MSM can't get Tesla right at ALL. They will troll you every time.

Men’s Cybertruck Bulletproof Tee

 

[StealthP3D]

This is what's happening. Tesla is about to report a huge Q4 profit and guide for a small profit in Q1, guaranteeing S&P inclusion. Model Y and battery event next month, Elon following the Chief Investment Officer of the world's largest pension fund in Japan (this guy also hates shorts, hmmm), China and German government probably buying stonk too. Connect the dots you silly bears! $900 in February, $2000 end of year

Would you share what you think will be driving this huge Q4 profit so we can get on the same page? I like Jack Rickard's take - profit will be good but forward guidance and other reveals is what will really drive the share price higher. Musk has buffed his credibility rating so any guidance he provides will be more powerful. I'm actually guessing he will be very subdued with it, continuing his "under-promise/over-deliver" theme. If there is anything powerful said, it will not be because he talked it up to the hilt, it will be because the nature of what he reveals really is powerful.

Here's the thing: a small improvement in margins that's sustainable is worth more to market participants in the long run than a large one-off profit beat based on one-time revenue recognition or a deal like the FCA deal. These things can have a positive influence on the share price but not to the degree that margin improvement can. It's all about showing they can make and sell cars with good and consistently increasing margins with expanding volumes.

China did not ramp production in Q4 sufficiently for margins to be meaningful and Musk is unlikely to say China margins will be higher (even if he knows they will be). I say this because he has previously said they will be roughly in-line with Freemont margins and there is no advantage to saying otherwise now (even if it's apparent to him). However, I'm thinking that could be a VERY important driver of the share price following Q1.

 

[kbM3]

Has anyone posted this yet? Would like to get everyone's thoughts on this horrible sales prediction for 2020.

I Am Forecasting Flat Unit Sales For Tesla In 2020

Actually, it was quite cute that he referred to it as “modeling”

 

[gerebgraus]

Has anyone posted this yet? Would like to get everyone's thoughts on this horrible sales prediction for 2020.

I Am Forecasting Flat Unit Sales For Tesla In 2020

We should have quality bearish views here. But let us keep out the moronic views in either direction.