Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[generalenthu]

I doubt Tesla will split anytime soon. Look at Amazon, it's share price is almost $2,000/share.

Fundamentally, the Board of Directors is who decides whether or not to split a company's shares. The reason to do so is to allow more small investors to buy shares. It used to be that you'd pay a premium if you didn't buy 100 shares at a time. Now that's no longer an issue. So the incentive to do a stock split is less.

Frankly, both Amazon and Tesla have incentives to NOT do a stock split. Both companies had naysayers banging away at their stock price for years. Having a high stock price is an advertisement of how far and fast the company has grown. It reminds people that this company is now real force, and it's also a bit of a middle finger to all the naysayers.

I personally wouldn't do a stock split right now, for those reasons alone.

Just catching up on the thread. Regarding stock splits, if Tesla doesn't split, the big question will be, should I buy a car or shall I buy a share. At one point I remember this dilemma regarding an iPhone.

Sorry, will just see myself out.

Please try to limit the number of posts. It's getting hard to keep up. May I suggest 3 a day per member. I think it's a generous allowance.

 

[Singuy]

Looks like Tesla raised merch prices. The water bottles and mugs went from $35 to $40 and the diecast models went from $250 to $320. If this keeps up they’ll be $530 in a couple months.

Wow 320? The only models I have seen in the high 250+ range are Autoarts Zonda. The details are not even in the same league. Now I know where Tesla is getting their margins.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

These articles can save lives. Let the TeslaQ people read these articles to calm themselves because you know, some are contemplating which roof to jump off of or where to purchase rope.

“I believe any additional sales coming from Model Y in the U.S. in 2020 will be cannibalized from Model 3, which is exactly the phenomenon that has occurred with M0del S sales”

Hmm, so Model S sales fell by ~10-20k from the high point(while also skewing towards higher ASPs) and Model 3 sales grew by... *checks* ~280k.

 

[anthonyj]

Would you share what you think will be driving this huge Q4 profit so we can get on the same page? I like Jack Rickard's take - profit will be good but forward guidance and other reveals is what will really drive the share price higher. Musk has buffed his credibility rating so any guidance he provides will be more powerful. I'm actually guessing he will be very subdued with it, continuing his "under-promise/over-deliver" theme. If there is anything powerful said, it will not be because he talked it up to the hilt, it will be because the nature of what he reveals really is powerful.

Here's the thing: a small improvement in margins that's sustainable is worth more to market participants in the long run than a large one-off profit beat based on one-time revenue recognition or a deal like the FCA deal. These things can have a positive influence on the share price but not to the degree that margin improvement can. It's all about showing they can make and sell cars with good and consistently increasing margins with expanding volumes.

China did not ramp production in Q4 sufficiently for margins to be meaningful and Musk is unlikely to say China margins will be higher (even if he knows they will be). I say this because he has previously said they will be roughly in-line with Freemont margins and there is no advantage to saying otherwise now (even if it's apparent to him). However, I'm thinking that could be a VERY important driver of the share price following Q1.

It's simple

Q2 2019
95k cars
-403m profit

Q3 2019
97k cars
143m profit

Q4 2019
112k cars (lots of S and X, price increase on 3)
a lot higher than Q3 profit... at least triple

Would be hilarious if they release earnings early, AKA this Wednesday

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Wow 320? The only models I have seen in the high 250+ range are Autoarts Zonda. The details are not even in the same league. Now I know where Tesla is getting their margins.

I deleted my post. I did not realize the link was to Canadian pricing.

 

[kbM3]

“I believe any additional sales coming from Model Y in the U.S. in 2020 will be cannibalized from Model 3, which is exactly the phenomenon that has occurred with M0del S sales”

Hmm, so Model S sales fell by ~10-20k from the high point(while also skewing towards higher ASPs) and Model 3 sales grew by... *checks* ~280k.

It’s ok if Model Y cannibalizes Model 3, because Model 3 will increasingly steal share from BMW 2/3/4 Series, Audi A4/A5, Mercedes C/E Classes and high end Camrys, Accords, Mazda 3’s/6’s...

 

[mongo]

“I believe any additional sales coming from Model Y in the U.S. in 2020 will be cannibalized from Model 3, which is exactly the phenomenon that has occurred with M0del S sales”

Hmm, so Model S sales fell by ~10-20k from the high point(while also skewing towards higher ASPs) and Model 3 sales grew by... *checks* ~280k.

Agreeing with you here. Plus the 3 is still not available worldwide.
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Q3 2019 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool
Q3 earnings call

Pierre Ferragu -- New Street Research -- Analyst

Yeah, just a quick one on the Model Y. So, I was wondering what you have learned with S and X that make you think maybe when you launch Model Y, you have some cannibalization of demand on the Model 3? And have you started to think about that and how to approach it?

Elon R. Musk -- Founder, Chief Executive Officer & Director

No, I don't think. We're not expecting to see cannibalization of Model 3, one is a sedan and one is an SUV.

Zachary Kirkhorn -- Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, the best comparison we have for that is when we launched Model X and we had Model S at the time.

Elon R. Musk -- Founder, Chief Executive Officer & Director

Model S sales increased.

Zachary Kirkhorn -- Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, and we didn't see any cannibalization there.

Elon R. Musk -- Founder, Chief Executive Officer & Director

The opposite. When we launched Model X, Model S sales increased.

Zachary Kirkhorn -- Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, so that's the best comparison that we have.

 

[Artful Dodger]

900 DaMoon Way
Mars, M.W.G. 69420

Oh you're part of the Mars Meteorite Working Group? That explains the asteroid mining. Zoom. To da Moon! (B·U·L·L·S I·N S·P·A·C·E)

But seriously, there's $10,000 quadrillion bucks of platium and precious metals on near-earth asteroid 16 psyche.

If only there was some way to go mine that rock...

Cheers!

 

[vwman111]

Long time lurker, have been investing in TSLA on and off since 2013.

i am long stock, holding for 3+ years. and also trade some options.

Looking at the current stock price, and what seems to be a change of tide of public sentiment towards the company and the stock, i can't shake that the company shouldn't be at $1,500 (if not much higher) per share in Jan 2022. Not a guaranteed price but seems very achievable if they continue to execute on the plan that has been discussed on this forum multiple times.

Am i crazy to sell 10% of my long shares to invest in Jan 2022 Leaps?

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Idk why people think me, SpaceCash and TT007 are joking. We are the real bulls and hold OTM calls. We know that TSLA is going to $900 sooner than most think. You can soon send us apologies at
900 DaMoon Way
Mars, M.W.G. 69420

This is what's happening. Tesla is about to report a huge Q4 profit and guide for a small profit in Q1, guaranteeing S&P inclusion. Model Y and battery event next month, Elon following the Chief Investment Officer of the world's largest pension fund in Japan (this guy also hates shorts, hmmm), China and German government probably buying stonk too. Connect the dots you silly bears! $900 in February, $2000 end of year

I just wanna acknowledge that this is the first post I've ever seen that has been given all the six different helpful/informative/like/disagree/funny and love clicks.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Idk why people think me, SpaceCash and TT007 are joking. We are the real bulls and hold OTM calls. We know that TSLA is going to $900 sooner than most think. You can soon send us apologies at
900 DaMoon Way
Mars, M.W.G. 69420

This is what's happening. Tesla is about to report a huge Q4 profit and guide for a small profit in Q1, guaranteeing S&P inclusion. Model Y and battery event next month, Elon following the Chief Investment Officer of the world's largest pension fund in Japan (this guy also hates shorts, hmmm), China and German government probably buying stonk too. Connect the dots you silly bears! $900 in February, $2000 end of year

An Alan Greenspan quote comes to mind.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I predict between 450 to 480K. And that is damn good for just two factories,

Fremont alone was ALREADY at an annual run rate of 420K/yr in 2019Q4.

Do you really believe that Fremont/Model Y + GF3/ Model 3 will add up to only 30 to 60K vehicles in 2020? And that Fremont will have ZERO increase in Model S/X/3 production?

Not a credible prediction. Try again.

 

[FrankSG]

Long time lurker, have been investing in TSLA on and off since 2013.

i am long stock, holding for 3+ years. and also trade some options.

Looking at the current stock price, and what seems to be a change of tide of public sentiment towards the company and the stock, i can't shake that the company shouldn't be at $1,500 (if not much higher) per share in Jan 2022. Not a guaranteed price but seems very achievable if they continue to execute on the plan that has been discussed on this forum multiple times.

Am i crazy to sell 10% of my long shares to invest in Jan 2022 Leaps?

Better to ask this question in the trading or options threads, but I don't think that's crazy.

I sold some stock last Thursday to buy some Jun'21 $900s, and yesterday at open I sold some Jun'21 $400s that appreciated 10x since August to buy some Jun'22 $990s.

I've based those decisions on detailed financial models, and a lot of thinking about things that could go wrong though. I didn't just buy them thinking it should be worth $1,500 in two years.

 

[M3Rider]

I just wanna acknowledge that this is the first post I've ever seen that has been given all the six different helpful/informative/like/disagree/funny and love clicks.

You haven't been here long enough. People like to add to a full set if only a few options are missing.

 

[Prunesquallor]

LoL, see MSM can't get Tesla right at ALL. They will troll you every time.

Men’s Cybertruck Bulletproof Tee

Jeez. A PR disaster turns into a company product. Tesla is becoming Teflon.

 

[ammulder]

Not that I don't enjoy the first type of posts, but it takes a lot of time to go through this many of them. Especially if there are more +10% days to come, this could be helpful?

You know, it is a drag to slog through 30 pages of posts in one day.

But if that's the price I have to pay for more +10% days?

I guess I'll take one for the team.

 

[ammulder]

You haven't been here long enough. People like to add to a full set if only a few options are missing.

Dang, I'm late to the party and now I have to decide whether to give your post a "Love" or a "Disagree"...

Edit: Love taken. Disagree it is!

 

[Robertj]

Another $6 after hours with 470,000 shares traded

bodes well for tomorrow

 

[Tim S]

Freemont is at a production rate of 420k a year production before model y, which is going to run on it's own line. Giga 3 will likely make at least 100k this year and more likely 200k. 600k is a lot more reasonable than 450 to 480k

Agreed, but there's only one e in Fremont!

 

[Steve m]

Has anyone posted this yet? Would like to get everyone's thoughts on this horrible sales prediction for 2020.

I Am Forecasting Flat Unit Sales For Tesla In 2020

The author, Jim Collins has called Tesla a corporate failure. His proof was

"The proof, of course, is in the stock price. Tesla shares closed trading August 20, 2014 at $255.71. Tesla shares closed last night at $225.86. In contrast, the Nasdaq 100 closed at 4040.71 on August 20, 2014 and at 7664.47 yesterday. "

I guess his proof has proved otherwise.

www.forbes.com/sites/jimcollins/2019/08/21/tesla-has-failed-massively-as-a-public-company