Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[steve3]

Vintage Andrea James today...miss her here!
“Coffee can this thing. Think it’s at least a four-bagger over the next few years.”
Twitter

 

[ZachF]

Shorts are HODLing
Gregory Ozimec on Twitter
Arguments still the same.
View attachment 499823

Edit: actually, at this point with showing so much conviction, I think it's more likely to be manipulators than real shorts.

Is Gerber wimping out again?

 

[M3Rider]

Is Gerber wimping out again?

Yeah, gotta take a profit.

Ben Kallo said the same and caused a drop to 480. Eventually, more people want in and SP goes up. It's a guessing game. I don't like it.

 

[mejojo]

I personally prefer this way of thinking than the other way of thinking. As somebody else has pointed out, the other way of thinking quickly leads to living in a tent, eating beans(*), in a field next to work because all of those savings on housing, food, and transportation could be pouring into Tesla. Do we also go calculate the cost of the more expensive food we bought last week instead of buying more shares of Tesla, and how much that food costs us in 10 years?

Or to be more precise in how I think about it - what did I know and consciously think about AT THE TIME relative to what I acted on at the time, would lead me to a regret today (and a change in behavior in the future)?


I've got one of those that's helped me. Back in 2008 time frame, I remember finding the first of my 'no-doubter' investment opportunities. Took me a few weeks of looking at it again and again to make sure I wasn't missing something. Finally pulled the trigger on it and it worked exactly as I expected it too. At the time, I didn't have the mental framework to have invested more, and that's translated into the regret / change I'd make today (and have made today with Tesla). For years after that investment, I'd tell people the only regret was I didn't do an order of magnitude more than I did.

From which I got the mental framework that's enabled me to put a much, much larger fraction of net worth into Tesla than the previous no-doubter.

I might find another no-doubter investment in my life, and there's a good chance I won't; because I'll have stopped looking.


(*) I should note that beans might be my favorite food, so eating beans - while illustrating an idea - wouldn't actually be that great of a hardship for me

So your license plate is not "NO GAS" ?

 

[mejojo]

Is this supposed to mean there’s a medium chance I’ll lose the beat?

Medium rare.

 

[Bet TSLA]

I find it amusing to think that my "joke buy" at $420,00 has now earned me almost $100

I thought of it as a token commemorative purchase. Mine is up $10,000+ now. Of course the Feb 21 550 Puts I wrote at that time have done much better, but it's beginning to look like I got the date wrong on those -- January may have been better. Not complaining though.

 

[Dutchie]

I need about 100 of these days before I start thinking of selling

 

[kyzhk]

I need about 100 of these days before I start thinking of selling

You are more bullish than the most bullish person I've seen

524.86*1.0977^100 ~= $5866916 / share

 

[c041v]

That explains why instead of "in order of appearance" at the end of the movie, they had the credits listed "in order of disappearance"!

While the Model X is seen multiple times, I did see a BMW i3 clearly taking up most of the shot for a good second or so during one point of the movie (it was in the foreground during a camera pan), too. The remake was set in the US so I didn't make any connection to Norway, but this makes more sense now.

O/T - I've seen both, and notably, the remake was actually filmed largely in Vancouver and Fernie, BC despite the depiction of a Colorado ski town. That could explain the presence of an i3 and the Model X, which are rather... prevalent in the former.

Interestingly, the original used a Fisker Karma, which was an interesting choice considering that was shot in Norway...

 

[StealthP3D]

I'm wondering if dilution will matter at all if he won't sell as he said... if the float does not increase, but buying interest grows, then...

He's going to get more voting power though, don't see a problem.

There are no free lunches. Dilution always matters because it dilutes all the "per share" numbers (like EPS). That said, he deserves every penny! I doubt anyone else could have done what he's done. Kudo's to all the engineers, etc also. My hat is off to all their hard work and obvious talent. But he's the one that orchestrated this coup and selected the proper people that made it happen. It's a big job and it had the slimmest of margins for error and bad decisions. It also needed a lot of brilliant decisions without which the experiment would have failed.

It's unreal just how much he got right. It's not over yet, but by getting Tesla to where they are now (and I'm not talking about the share price), he has proven they have what it takes to take it to the next level. It's a huge win for humanity and planet Earth.

 

[sundaymorning]

With 2020 losses mounting, we should see a continuation and probably an acceleration of Tesla’s multi-month short squeeze. Short sellers with lower P&L pain thresholds will be the first to cover along with shorts looking to call the top of Tesla’s present rally. The long-term Tesla shorts with strong convictions will most certainly hang on the longest.

Today’s price move should produce enough short covering to threaten the four and a half year low of 24.2 million shares shorted on January 28th, 2019. The next low point would be 23.8 million shares shorted in July of 2015. If the long-term Tesla shorts begin to capitulate the 20 million shares shorted level of July 2013 would be the next milestone to fall.

Since 2016, when we started calculating short-side data, Tesla shorts are down -$11.44 billion in net-of-financing mark-to-market P\L. The recent rally may be the final tipping point for the mother of all short squeezes. If shorts begin to cover in size, expect the Tesla rally to get turbo charged to even higher levels.

-S3 Partners

We’ll need a very resounding beat on earnings to take us to the promise land. I guess both shorts and long will find out in a couple weeks.

 

[M3Rider]

Dilution always matters because it dilutes all the "per share" numbers (like EPS).

On the other hand, if you could invest in SpaceX knowing about similar performance awards arrangements, would you?

Yes, no free lunch, but great perspectives nevertheless.

 

[Mad@gascar]

So you're saying that if Tesla did a 1:10 split and the stock price was trading at $50, people would think it to be a bargain and buy the stock price? You know, you're probably right. We are truly in the age of the clueless stock investor.

I am quite convinced this is true:
Stock going from $48 to $53? "Meh."
Stock going from $480 to $530? "Irrational hype!"
Stock going from $4800 to $5300? "BUBBLE ABOUT TO BURST!!!!"

 

[StealthP3D]

On the other hand, if you could invest in SpaceX knowing about similar performance awards arrangements, would you?

Of course. Why wouldn't I? I mean, great management is one of the first things I look for. But Musk is beyond great, he's visionary. That's far more valuable.

 

[kcveins]

You are more bullish than the most bullish person I've seen

524.86*1.0977^100 ~= $5866916 / share

I think s/he meant 100 more days of $45 increases...~4500 + 500 for a stock price of $5000

 

[TheTalkingMule]

21 months til Elon can be named chairman again. Assuming he'll do it just for spite.....think that'll have a positive impact on SP?

 

[Cosmacelf]

I am quite convinced this is true:
Stock going from $48 to $53? "Meh."
Stock going from $480 to $530? "Irrational hype!"
Stock going from $4800 to $5300? "BUBBLE ABOUT TO BURST!!!!"

100% correct. I've been watching Uber, and it recently went from $30 to $34. That's the same percentage move from $450 to $510. The Uber move looks tame in comparison. I don't know, you guys are almost convincing me that a stock split is a good idea.

 

[Driver Dave]

+46 and...

Times crossword clue!

What a great Monday.

 

[Todd Burch]

You are more bullish than the most bullish person I've seen

524.86*1.0977^100 ~= $5866916 / share

Too optimistic, by about one whole order of magnitude.

 

[Cosmacelf]

21 months til Elon can be named chairman again. Assuming he'll do it just for spite.....think that'll have a positive impact on SP?

He should do just for the headlines and to rub the SEC's nose into the sand. He isn't a fan of the SEC.