Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jeewee3000]

I don't know if this has been posted yet but according to Yahoo Finance the Tesla Q4 2019 ER is February 3rd.

EDIT: Tesla IR site does not show this so I'm guessing it is a placeholder date.

 

[StealthP3D]

I'm very bullish long term but this price is getting high so it seems prudent to step back to a level where I'm more comfortable riding out the peaks and dips. Also, the stock has done what I wanted it to. I have 2-3x my initial investment to build a decent nest egg that I can now afford to be more careful with.

Congrats. And good move not having 95% of your eggs in one basket! But where, pray tell, are you going to put your nest egg where it will be safer?

The strategy that worked for me was to make so much money that I didn't care if it was cut in half (because I was still far ahead of where I would have been had I been careful, prudent and diversified all along). My goal in making money was to have enough of it that it became not a "thing". If I tried to protect it every step of the way, I wouldn't have got there until I was dead.

Not advice, just another perspective.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Tesla tracking macros (S&P500) relatively closely today

It's practice for when they join it

 

[Off Shore]

mmd over. Off to regular business now

Multiple Morning Dips today, but it doesn't seem to matter.

 

[Curt Renz]

Barron's - hour ago: Tesla Stock Has Doubled in 3 Months and Could Keep Rallying. Here’s Why.

Excerpt:

It seems there is no stopping the rally. Tesla (ticker: TSLA) stock is up more than 24% year to date and almost 110% over the past three months. Investors skeptical of Tesla's stock-market valuation attribute the big gains to a short squeeze. That happens when bearish investors who had bet on a price decline by selling the stock short rush to cover their bets all at once, usually after good news, sending the stock higher.

That is one explanation for the recent run. But there is another. The stock market might be behaving rationally regarding Tesla stock. Actual profit, not the hope for profit, catalyzed Tesla's recent run.

 

[Nocturnal]

30% higher than average volume just 1.5 hours into the trading day.

 

[ggr]

This straight-line stock action from about 10am EST to now (11am) is interesting. It's indicative of someone(s) first wanting to buy a large position without moving the market, so releasing the buy order in smaller tranches, and then someone(s) doing the same for selling, Now switching to buys again. This is the exact opposite of @Papafox's "icicles". These people are serious and large.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

30% higher than average volume just 1.5 hours into the trading day.

Looks like we're headed for another 30+ million volume day again

 

[madodel]

Multiple Morning Dips today, but it doesn't seem to matter.

Someone doesn't seem to like TSLA going over $540.

 

[ggr]

Let’s say the mother of all squeezes happens today or this week, and the stock spikes up to $1000 before settling back in the 500s-600s.

In an effort to scoop up some cash to buy more TSLA on the other side of the squeeze, what about laying a bunch of GTC-sell traps for tiny sales every $25 or $50 increase in share price from $550 up to $1000? Then buy more stock when everything calms down?

Dumb? Unimaginative? Broker will screw me? Ideas?

The computers will always beat you on trading strategies. Your only advantage (at the moment) is that those computers know nothing about the company or its actual value. Invest based on that.

 

[CalX]

What ever happened to Ron Baron? Haven't seen him in the news lately. He must be ecstatic.

 

[Nocturnal]

Semi-OT. Does anyone have a site/program that allows you to view multiple stock trackers at once? I've slightly expanded the number of stocks I care about aside from TSLA.

This straight-line stock action from about 10am EST to now (11am) is interesting. It's indicative of someone(s) first wanting to buy a large position without moving the market, so releasing the buy order in smaller tranches, and then someone(s) doing the same for selling, Now switching to buys again. This is the exact opposite of @Papafox's "icicles". These people are serious and large.

The buying seems much steeper than the selling. Wondering if that shows that sellers (either profit takers or shorts) are having trouble really making a big impact vs the buy side.

 

[JusRelax]

Semi-OT. Does anyone have a site/program that allows you to view multiple stock trackers at once? I've slightly expanded the number of stocks I care about aside from TSLA.


The buying seems much steeper than the selling. Wondering if that shows that sellers (either profit takers or shorts) are having trouble really making a big impact vs the buy side.

My yahoo watch list allows me to see real-time changes to multiple stock tickers at once:

 

[ggr]

Trust me, learned my lesson there. Should have known better in the first place given my background but a guy can't keep his antennas up ALL THE TIME... can he?

It's hard to think straight when you've just been woken up. I was in a hotel once, knock on the door, police outside. "Your door was open. You shouldn't do that around here." Thanked them, closed door, went back to bed. Next morning realized all our stuff was gone.

 

[LJS22]

Three Critical Lessons From Tesla’s Epic Rally

My favorite line is the last one
“Never bet against a billionaire rocket scientist who hates short sellers.”

 

[The Accountant]

For 2020: 600,000 cars delivered @ $4,000 net profit per car
$2.4 billion net profit, times 40 p/e, equals 96 billion mkt cap
Or about $533 per share. Pure guess estimate.

40 P/E is extremely low for a growth company.
I see 2020 at $8 EPS at 100 P/E - you arrive at $800 per share
I see 2021 at $16 EPS at 80 P/E - you arrive at $1,280 per share
I know people dislike the comparison to Amazon but its P/E multiple is a good example of what we should see with growth companies:

 

[Nocturnal]

Three Critical Lessons From Tesla’s Epic Rally

My favorite line is the last one
“Never bet against a billionaire rocket scientist who hates short sellers.”

I LOVED Ellison's quote about Tesla around the time he joined the board. (paraphrased) "oh, Tesla. Yeah, I have a billion dollars in it. People tell me it will go bankrupt and I say, should I listen to you, or my friend Elon who launches rockets into space?"

 

[lascavarian]

Kathy Wood to be on CNBC within the hour.

 

[Fact Checking]

fourth Quarter Earnings Announcement Expected: Earnings will tentatively be announced 01/29/2020. With 20 analysts covering TSLA, the consensus EPS estimate is $1.62, and the high and low estimates are $2.25 and $0.80, respectively.

Expected Timing: After close

yeah i was just going to ask if 1/29 was the official

No. I think it'll be the 22nd.

Are you sure? For Q3 they announced the October 23 date on October 9, for Q2 the July 24 result on July 11, and for Q1 the April 24 result on April 11:

Tesla Announces Date for Third Quarter 2019 Financial Results and Webcast | Tesla, Inc.

Tesla Announces Date for Second Quarter 2019 Financial Results and Webcast | Tesla, Inc.

Tesla Announces Date for First Quarter 2019 Financial Results and Webcast | Tesla, Inc.
​

If the Q4 results are released next Wednesday (January 22) then they'd have announced it on the 9th already, right?

If the Q4 earnings call is on January 29, then they'd normally announce it on the 15th or 16th: tomorrow or in two days.

 

[Tslynk67]

Still catching up. What a dull day - sure, 2% is nice, but, meh!

Bought me some OTM Feb 7's, just for the hell of it...

To anyone considering using the winning to get a Tesla or upgrade to a newer one:

Go ahead and do it in Q1, but, please seriously consider taking a loan for the car instead of paying in full.

Just think about the probability of that money would gain less than the interest rate in TSLA in 5 years.

Don’t be the one who calculates how much your beloved car really costed you after 5yrs.

Not advice, but if you have other income you should consider.

Or pay the loan by selling X shares per month rather than the whole amount up-front, keeps you in the game more. Not an advice.

Implying Cramer is retiring anytime soon. He loves what he does and no one at CNBC is going to make him stop.

Love or hate him, I'd rather have him on our side

Always good to hear Tasha and Julia

Julia Chatterley on Twitter


View attachment 499712

Good to hear, even better to see, I'd say!!

Let's pause for a moment and recognize that a few days ago, if you were scared by the $10 drop and sold, you would have missed out on about $35 additional per share.

Don't be that person. We've got ourselves an Amazon here. Hodl.

Even worse if you dumped some options

I’m tempted to try this: IJSLAND - Met de eigen wagen - 19 dagen

That's way above my pay grade - mostly due to the loss of earnings it would entail.

I have a feeling you might like my license plate number...

Brilliant!

like drinking a beer, there is no such thing as an incorrect time to buy.

You'd best talk to my wife about that...

Elon will soon be able to vest 1.7 million shares, when the SP hits 555. How will that affect the stock price? Is it a dilution?View attachment 499824

As those shares won't be traded, the effect will me minimal. If anything the SP will rise as there'll be a big fanfare when it happens.

21 months til Elon can be named chairman again. Assuming he'll do it just for spite.....think that'll have a positive impact on SP?

I prefer he doesn't, the current setup is working well.

8 shares? Cheapest arrangement for 2 adults and a Model X is 2,8 shares, round trip (€1320), if one brought their own lunch/dinner and stayed in a shared berth. With a private berth with a window, the fancier lunch option, and 3-course dinners, the price goes up to 3,9 shares (€2025)

You're welcome to bring both the wife and the ex, if the wife is amenable.

Hmmm, I must have taken the wrong options, I was getting €3k and upwards without any meals.

On a serious note maybe colour coding would work. So off topic posts in orange for example, and on topic posts in black.

It would be very easy to skip all the off-topic fun stuff and only read the important stuff.

Would save mods a huge amound of time filtering as well. Would ppl be prepared to put in the (minimal) extra effort?

Thoughts anyone?

I think that's actually a pretty smart idea, but good luck enforcing it.