Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

Maybe we can take Driver Ed 101 to another thread?

I've read enough posts about how to operate the controls and the silly mistakes people make.

 

[lklundin]

We see it Friday after Friday, 95% of the time, the SP is manipulated to cause the least losses to the option writers. It's only when you get a big run-up or crash that they lose. So the last 7 months have been quite delicious and the fallout of options bought at crazy-cheap prices last year will cause them pain for some time to come!

Right. So to the extent that this is true, buyers and sellers of option contracts would adopt a strategy where they would trade very close to the expiration date on the expected EOD SP that this manipulation would bring about. However, this would in turn shift the Max Pain away from where it was expected to be, lessening the effectiveness of the manipulation.

What I have just done is to try to argue via the efficient market-hypothesis,
Efficient-market hypothesis - Wikipedia

 

[JRP3]

or others filing on their behalf.

Like Keef Wivanef

 

[lklundin]

I’m confused. I thought they would want to close it around max pain. I don’t know enough about this stuff.

An easy way to think of it is that the sellers of the option contracts already collected their premiums, and now they want to minimize the amount of money they have to spend delivering on these contracts (calls or puts). So for puts and calls with the same strike price, the seller will prefer that which sold the most to expire worthlessly.

 

[TheGrimSweeper]

And surprise! Now that he is "famous" his twitter account is locked down: Brian Sparks (@btsparks) | Twitter

Confusing how he claims to be pro climate and environmental movement yet shorts a stock pushing that movement forward?

 

[tinm]

Car and Driver insists NHTSA has an open investigation going on (NHTSA ID DP20001), but as far as I can tell the petition has not been approved or declined yet.

UPDATE: I just talked to NHTSA and they confirmed this is, as of Monday, now officially an open investigation. “It could take months,” NHTSA told me.

 

[steak&chicken]

Rob from Tesla Daily Podcast discussed yesterday's research report from Adam Jonas. Rob gives insight into what was said in the report. The modeling done by Jonas is complete joke and super amateurish. I can see why the market shrugged off the report once they actually read it. I think everyone laughed at Jonas and threw his report in the trash. It's that bad.

 

[Fact Checking]

UPDATE: I just talked to NHTSA and they confirmed this is, as of Monday, now officially an open investigation. “It could take months,” NHTSA told me.

Did you have a chance to ask the NHTSA whether they were aware that the person who filed the petition, Brian Sparks, is a TSLA short seller, a third party with a financial interest in seeing such an investigation started?

 

[StealthP3D]

Confusing how he claims to be pro climate and environmental movement yet shorts a stock pushing that movement forward?

It's all part of the deception he's running with. One big lie.

 

[riverFox]

ER will be on January 29th.

Tesla Announces Date for Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 Financial Results and Webcast | Tesla, Inc.

 

[Fact Checking]

Tesla Announces Date for Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 Financial Results and Webcast | Tesla, Inc.

"Tesla Announces Date for Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 Financial Results and Webcast"

"PALO ALTO, Calif., Jan. 17, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Tesla will post its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2019 after market close on Wednesday, January 29, 2020. At that time, Tesla will issue a brief advisory containing a link to the Q4 and full year 2019 update, which will be available on Tesla’s Investor Relations website. Tesla management will hold a live question and answer webcast that day at 3:30 p.m. Pacific Time (6:30 p.m. Eastern Time) to discuss the Company’s financial and business results and outlook."​

The ER date is on the 29th as expected, and the announcement was made when @The Accountant and @ggr suggested it would be made.

The date is neither bullish nor bearish, but the fact that it was made removed a potential bearish delay - which is bullish. Hence the +$2 rise in after market trading, I suspect.

 

[generalenthu]

1/29 is the day

 

[Rockster]

this is pathetic. what sounds like a conspiracy theory that shorts are behind the NHTSA petition is actually true.

In a sane world, before deciding to grant this petition, the NHTSA would have a conversation with Tesla, who would provide logs for these 127 incidents, and within a day or two the NHTSA would announce that they are denying the petition because an examination of the logs showed that there was no merit to the petition.

I'll put down the crack pipe now.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: 2020-01-17 16-00

VWAP: $509.74
Volume: 13,267,463
Traded: $6,762,895,425.22​

Summary: Max pain is a thing, with MMs controlling price action in a tight range today, closing within 50 cents of one of the Options strike prices ($510). Too bad the retail investor has no insight into the exposure of these MMs, who manipulated the SP throughout the week. Where is the SEC? Where is Congress? Oh, right...

I will try to update this report when daily short selling infor becomes available around 17:45 hrs EST.

Cheers!

Daily short selling Update: (data src)

FINRA Short'd: 3,576,407
FINRA Volume: 6,502,545
Short% FINRA: 55.00%

NASDAQ Vol: 12,836,076
FINRA Volum: - 6,502,545 =
MMs* Volume: 6,333,531

MM % Volume: 49.34%​

Conclusion: as we can see from the relative amount of trading volume, Market Makers did not have to work especially hard today to manipulate the Closing SP. I think it was well established by early in the session that they would do so, and volume quickly dried up today, with the Close being at an unusually (for TSLA) tight range.

Cheers![/QUOTE]

* This is the est'd Market Makers (MMs) daily trading Volume. Since we have no insight into non-FINRA trading entities such as large hedge funds with direct trading relationships to NASDAQ, which include some Market Makers, the best estimate we can do is to calculate non-FINRA trading and attribute it largely to MMs.

 

[Freder Reeve]

in other extremely important investor news: Men's Medium Cybertruck shirts are back in stock!!! (I ordered mine before breaking the news because I have a selfish streak)

 

[TheGrimSweeper]

In a sane world, before deciding to grant this petition, the NHTSA would have a conversation with Tesla, who would provide logs for these 127 incidents, and within a day or two the NHTSA would announce that they are denying the petition because an examination of the logs showed that there was no merit to the petition.

I'll put down the crack pipe now.

Yea but a strategy used by the shorts is to make as much noise as possible so it pressures the NHTSA into feeling like they have do the investigation.

They can now hang on to this until it comes back with nothing and then it will be onto the next one.

They always have one thing they are holding onto that is going to be "the end" of Tesla.

 

[MABMAB]

Can I post another link to when results get reported, but perhaps use a different color?

 

[TheGrimSweeper]

in other extremely important investor news: Men's Medium Cybertruck shirts are back in stock!!! (I ordered mine before breaking the news because I have a selfish streak)

ORDERED! ETA till out of stock again? I give it till Monday.

 

[Singuy]

Tesla Announces Date for Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 Financial Results and Webcast | Tesla, Inc.

"Tesla Announces Date for Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 Financial Results and Webcast"

"PALO ALTO, Calif., Jan. 17, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Tesla will post its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2019 after market close on Wednesday, January 29, 2020. At that time, Tesla will issue a brief advisory containing a link to the Q4 and full year 2019 update, which will be available on Tesla’s Investor Relations website. Tesla management will hold a live question and answer webcast that day at 3:30 p.m. Pacific Time (6:30 p.m. Eastern Time) to discuss the Company’s financial and business results and outlook."​

The ER date is on the 29th as expected, and the announcement was made when @The Accountant and @ggr suggested it would be made.

The date is neither bullish nor bearish, but the fact that it was made removed a potential bearish delay - which is bullish. Hence the +$2 rise in after market trading, I suspect.

Tesla's announcement of their earnings report on time and on the same usual day of the year is worth 300 million dollars in market cap. Let that sink in how stupid this is.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

Did you have a chance to ask the NHTSA whether they were aware that the person who filed the petition, Brian Sparks, is a TSLA short seller, a third party with a financial interest in seeing such an investigation started?

I welcome the investigation (!) which will have NHTSA state a finding, to wit: a Tesla's acceleration schema (relying on dual, equal, opposite signals both being received from two Go Pedal potentiometers: one positive, one negative) is safer, MUCH safer than any single-source sensing. If the two pots don't exactly show the opposite of each other, the car won't accelerate. This prevents one bad wire etc. from causing an unintended acceleration.

This is well known. This um, tends to be evidentiary that... the intent of the complaint is not to promote public safety but to promulgate fear, uncertainty and ...some D-word that escapes me at the moment.

I would love to submit an amicus and/or help with a suit, but I no longer work in a Law office.
(I fix 'puters and nets for some bright talented people in the Marketing branch of [major-ish FINRA member] and this Honest Work keeps me much happier than foreclosing on people's homes ever did. )