Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[InDaClub]

N.J. governor signs bill giving $5,000 rebates for EVs

New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy has signed a bill that represents the state’s most ambitious strategy to promote electric vehicles.

New Jersey, where transportation accounts for about half of greenhouse gas emissions, joins about a dozen other states that have targets for electric-vehicle adoption. The bill calls for 2 million plug-in electric vehicles by 2035, and offer consumers rebates of as much as $5,000.

“We are expecting about 60 percent of total U.S. new car sales to be electric by 2040,” said Nick Albanese, BloombergNEF’s head of Intelligent Mobility analysis. “New Jersey’s target would be above average.”

 

[CanadaEV]

Rob from Tesla Daily Podcast discussed yesterday's research report from Adam Jonas. Rob gives insight into what was said in the report. The modeling done by Jonas is complete joke and super amateurish. I can see why the market shrugged off the report once they actually read it. I think everyone laughed at Jonas and threw his report in the trash. It's that bad.

Yeah, it's ridiculous.
Here are Jonas' projection for Tesla:
Tesla will apparently be stuck at something like 100K to 200K increase per year in production numbers for the next 10 years.

lol, Jonas can see the future: In 2029 he sees that Tesla's sales will increase by 101K for the year.

 

[MP3Mike]

UPDATE: I just talked to NHTSA and they confirmed this is, as of Monday, now officially an open investigation. “It could take months,” NHTSA told me.

@tinm Did you mean now or not?

Just to be clear have they confirmed that they are just reviewing the petition to see if they will grant it and start a formal investigation or have they approved the petition already and have started a formal investigation? (The other petition submitted back in October is still being reviewed, waiting for data from Tesla for the NHTSA to review before they grant or deny it, so it would seem to be weird for them to have granted this one so quickly.)

 

[space_s3x]

 

[mact3333]

We should see volatility pick up over the next few weeks...with TSLA earnings on 1/29 things will get tricky...the VIX should see sharp spike soon...should be just a temporary set back, but I see the markets and TSLA selling off before earnings(try to remember the big picture when this happens)...but will be a great spot to pick up shares before the next wave of the ramp up...we should see the next step wise climb up on TSLA after earnings...until earnings, many on this board will panic and flip out a bit.......jmho.

 

[Curt Renz]

Barron's - hour ago: Tesla and Spotify Stock Could Soar Tenfold, James Anderson Says

Excerpts:

Weighing in below is James Anderson of Baillie Gifford...

I dislike the tones of certainty that people use about Tesla. You cannot be certain it is either worth $4,000 or that it is going bankrupt. You should have different scenarios. Frankly, they are getting on very well. This whole notion that you should compare [the company] by numbers of cars to market value seems extraordinarily odd. We own Ferrari. It's a market cap of $30 billion on the base of less than 10,000 cars [a year]...

When we talked to [Tesla CEO] Elon Musk in 2013, he said there was a small but growing possibility that Tesla could become the largest company in the world. We try to see whether that small possibility is becoming greater or less of a possibility. They have met certain targets that are remarkable. First, they effectively got to equivalence: the Model 3 is no more expensive than an internal-combustion-engine car...

If you can get 15% to 20% improvements in batteries but also in the associated drive-train efficiency, the cost of the car can come down. In terms of the efficiency of the powertrain, none of the conventional companies are now where Tesla was even six years ago. Their leadership is increasing, rather than decreasing. If you put that together with an improving, though still not perfect, culture, this company is functioning in a way much superior to what it was two or three years ago. It's easy to see a million cars a year; that is likely to generate $5 billion in free cash flow. I can construct [a scenario] where [the stock] can be worth $5,000, but you should just let the probabilities work through. Why are there so many people in this country who want America's only hope of being a world-leading car company to fail? I don't think there's mental balance on this company and that has put off lot of fund managers from owning it.

 

[tinm]

Did you have a chance to ask the NHTSA whether they were aware that the person who filed the petition, Brian Sparks, is a TSLA short seller, a third party with a financial interest in seeing such an investigation started?

Well the lady who I spoke to at NHTSA was very minimally helpful and not familiar with the details, other than the fact that yes it's confirmed it's really now an investigation "as of Monday," she said.

Also, FYI, my understanding is that an attorney, Edward Chen, filed the petition. I suspect that Sparks filed a complaint, but Chen (who happens to be a Model S owner) may be the one who aggregated all the complaints into a more general petition and that this is what triggered NHTSA to turn it into an investigation. I'm curious if Sparks and Chen worked together or independently.

I've put in a call to Chen's office to learn more. I'm curious especially how the word gets out about this kind of thing. I suspect, but it's only a hunch, no proof yet, that it would be in the law firm's best interests to get some virality going on a petition like this. I find it fascinating how this story propagated this week, and I've suspected, like others in TMC, that somehow TSLAQ / shorts would find this story also in their best interests to propagate. And of course the timing, just as a bear raid is happening on the stock, and TSLA has once again become the most-shorted security on the market, sounds like more than a coincidence. We'll see.

 

[tinm]

@tinm Did you mean now or not?

Just to be clear have they confirmed that they are just reviewing the petition to see if they will grant it and start a formal investigation or have they approved the petition already and have started a formal investigation? (The other petition submitted back in October is still being reviewed, waiting for data from Tesla for the NHTSA to review before they grant or deny it, so it would seem to be weird for them to have granted this one so quickly.)

Yes, now -- the investigation is officially open.

 

[M3Rider]

We should see volatility pick up over the next few weeks...with TSLA earnings on 1/29 things will get tricky...the VIX should see sharp spike soon...should be just a temporary set back, but I see the markets and TSLA selling off before earnings(try to remember the big picture when this happens)...but will be a great spot to pick up shares before the next wave of the ramp up...we should see the next step wise climb up on TSLA after earnings...until earnings, many on this board will panic and flip out a bit.......jmho.

Panic? After $180? Speak for yourself.

 

[Cherry Wine]

We should see volatility pick up over the next few weeks...with TSLA earnings on 1/29 things will get tricky...the VIX should see sharp spike soon...should be just a temporary set back, but I see the markets and TSLA selling off before earnings(try to remember the big picture when this happens)...but will be a great spot to pick up shares before the next wave of the ramp up...we should see the next step wise climb up on TSLA after earnings...until earnings, many on this board will panic and flip out a bit.......jmho.

I disagree, but I'm curious as to your rationale. Why do you think the market will selloff?

 

[Todd Burch]

Well the lady who I spoke to at NHTSA was very minimally helpful and not familiar with the details, other than the fact that yes it's confirmed it's really now an investigation "as of Monday," she said.

Also, FYI, my understanding is that an attorney, Edward Chen, filed the petition. I suspect that Sparks filed a complaint, but Chen (who happens to be a Model S owner) may be the one who aggregated all the complaints into a more general petition and that this is what triggered NHTSA to turn it into an investigation. I'm curious if Sparks and Chen worked together or independently.

I've put in a call to Chen's office to learn more. I'm curious especially how the word gets out about this kind of thing. I suspect, but it's only a hunch, no proof yet, that it would be in the law firm's best interests to get some virality going on a petition like this. I find it fascinating how this story propagated this week, and I've suspected, like others in TMC, that somehow TSLAQ / shorts would find this story also in their best interests to propagate. And of course the timing, just as a bear raid is happening on the stock, and TSLA has once again become the most-shorted security on the market, sounds like more than a coincidence. We'll see.

She found the wrong investigation, or you’re thinking of the wrong investigation.

Chen’s petition is the class action lawsuit regarding chargate/batterygate. That is different from this phony unintended acceleration filing.

 

[Mike Smith]

Bloomberg plan would make all new U.S. cars electric by 2035

 

[tinm]

She found the wrong investigation, or you’re thinking of the wrong investigation.

Chen’s petition is the class action lawsuit regarding chargate/batterygate. That is different from this phony unintended acceleration filing.

Yeah, it could be some of these news reports conflated the two petitions, and then I got it wrong. Well, hopefully I'll hear back from Chen.

 

[hd-2]

AH action looking a little odd.

 

[kelly]

Yeah, it could be some of these news reports conflated the two petitions, and then I got it wrong. Well, hopefully I'll hear back from Chen.

Here is an Insideevs article about the Chen petition.
From the article:
"The NHTSA has a 120-day deadline to respond to defect petitions. The agency is said to fail to comply with this deadline most of the time, but it has taken exactly 38 days to address this one.

The attorney Edward C. Chen sent his request to NHTSA on September 17, and the answer came last October 24. NHTSA decided to investigate the battery safety of the Model S and the Model X, affected by 2019.16.1 and 2019.16.2 software updates. Tesla is accused of using them to mask safety hazards, such as spontaneous fires."

 

[MP3Mike]

Well the lady who I spoke to at NHTSA was very minimally helpful and not familiar with the details, other than the fact that yes it's confirmed it's really now an investigation "as of Monday," she said.

Also, FYI, my understanding is that an attorney, Edward Chen, filed the petition. I suspect that Sparks filed a complaint, but Chen (who happens to be a Model S owner) may be the one who aggregated all the complaints into a more general petition and that this is what triggered NHTSA to turn it into an investigation. I'm curious if Sparks and Chen worked together or independently.

I suspect it is just a misunderstanding, and that they are investigating the defect petition, not that they have granted it and started a real investigation. (We will know for sure next month since they have a monthly report that shows the status of everything.)

She found the wrong investigation, or you’re thinking of the wrong investigation.

Chen’s petition is the class action lawsuit regarding chargate/batterygate. That is different from this phony unintended acceleration filing.

That one isn't even an open investigation yet... They are still reviewing the petition. (As of their December 2019 status report.)

 

[Cherry Wine]

AH action looking a little odd.

Very strange -- makes me think some news broke. Maybe some calls got exercised and sold?

 

[MP3Mike]

Here is an Insideevs article about the Chen petition.
From the article:
"The NHTSA has a 120-day deadline to respond to defect petitions. The agency is said to fail to comply with this deadline most of the time, but it has taken exactly 38 days to address this one.

The attorney Edward C. Chen sent his request to NHTSA on September 17, and the answer came last October 24. NHTSA decided to investigate the battery safety of the Model S and the Model X, affected by 2019.16.1 and 2019.16.2 software updates. Tesla is accused of using them to mask safety hazards, such as spontaneous fires."

That is wrong, they are still reviewing the defect petition. A formal investigation has not yet happened: https://www-odi.nhtsa.dot.gov/downloads/monthlyReports/inv/INVMTY-122019-1234.pdf

Or at least that is my understanding.

 

[Todd Burch]

Yeah, it could be some of these news reports conflated the two petitions, and then I got it wrong. Well, hopefully I'll hear back from Chen.

very likely the NHTSA employee got it confused.

 

[Skryll]

A buddy of mine what works for a solar installer in california just mentioned to me that they got close to 600kWh of powerwalls and are booked with their installers until November. I guess PG&E really did start a fire sale event...