Based on options open interest before the opening, Opricot calculates TSLA MaxPain for today's expiration as $460. It is heavily skewed low by the large number of options expiring at strike prices quite low relative to the current share price.
A cursory survey suggests that a more reasonable MaxPain target for large option writers could be $510. But that can change throughout the rest of the session.
While this is not a Triple Witching quarterly expiration, the size of the open interest has been large due to the contracts having opened over a year ago as LEAPS designed to push potential profits into a later tax year.
So there will likely be much options related activity today that can affect the share price. Many option owners and writers will be trying to close positions before the market closing. Perhaps some large options writers will in position to manipulate the share price toward what they perceive as MaxPain. Keep in mind that the closing of options positions often also involves the closing of share positions that had been hedges.
Quick bursts of high volume share price movement today are far more likely related to options considerations than activity by long-term oriented institutions and funds. These bursts can trigger cascades of stop limits set by weak longs.
A big consideration in all of this is the fact that options have an expiration date while stock shares do not. Thus options traders may feel frenzied today, while strong shareholders can remain calm.
Opricot Open Interest|Volume|Max Pain
