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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Model Ys seen in the wild so far have had an extra "R" in the VIN number that production Tesla's don't. Speculation is thi is for "release candidate" as in a test car. Also VINs in the 600s != 600 produced. As Model 3 VIN tracking and trying to project production figures became an (inter)national sport in 2018, Tesla started doing out of order sequences and skipping hundreds or thousands only to come back to those number ranges at another time.

EDIT: the VIN in that article is YJYGDEF5LFR00594. Ther should only be numbers after the "F".
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That VIN is missing the first character, it is 5YJYGDEF5LFR00594. The first 5 means made in the US. In terms of the R digit as part of the “serial”. I know Tesla has previously used a variety of letter codes for development roadsters and also for founders and signature series vehicles. Anyone know if R was used with 3 development?
 
Agreed, it sounds like without the paint shop or a press, there is no equipment which will have a long lead time. They can just replicate their 30m production line for an extra 50k capacity in relatively short order.

Sandy’s two numbers were for a 50k/year and 600k/yr CAPEX. The 600k is bigger per unit of production but presumably also lowers labor costs. So while they could replicate the 50k line. You might be able to get better labor costs if you build out full capacity expected in each region in one go.

Despite all that I like your replicating approach better. It is more flexible to figuring out market demand. Truck is so out there I really don’t know how you’d reliably predict the sales rate. Flexibility where you phase out the production capacity seems like a good idea.
 
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That VIN is missing the first character, it is 5YJYGDEF5LFR00594. The first 5 means made in the US. In terms of the R digit as part of the “serial”. I know Tesla has previously used a variety of letter codes for development roadsters and also for founders and signature series vehicles. Anyone know if R was used with 3 development?
Thanks, sorry. Bad copy/paste.
 
Sandy’s two numbers were for a 50k/year and 600k/yr CAPEX. The 600k is bigger per unit of production but presumably also lowers labor costs. So while they could replicate the 50k line. You might be able to get better labor costs if you build out full capacity expected in each region in one go.

Despite all that I like your replicating approach better. It is more flexible to figuring out market demand. Truck is so out there I really don’t know how you’d reliably predict the sales rate. Flexibility where you phase out the production capacity seems like a good idea.
A plant in 10 states where sales are challenging. That could bring some clout.
I don’t think they would, there are other logistics involved, but who knows.
 
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Seriously, I don’t see real sellers until $1,000+. At that point I’ll sell 200 shares to recoup my initial investment and keep 900 shares forever. Most of the weak longs were wiped out and replaced by new investors last year. The smart ones know that they are sitting on gold

Also, gap up to new ATH means we will probably gap fill this morning, like what happened Tuesday last week. Might be wise to take profits on some shorter term calls at open and rebuy them later
 
Trump calls Elon Musk 'genius'

Trump said just now on CNBC that Tesla is building a big plant in America. There goes shorties theory of Trump hating on Elon for building GF3 in China

ugh, not sure if that’s good endorsement.

Trump only really praises Overlord Musk because he’s rich and successful—I’ve little doubt that Trump doesn’t comprehend why Overlord Musk is successful.

And is he talking about GF1? That’s the only planned building out facilities that I’m aware of. GF2 and Fremont are as large as they’re likely to get, and GF5 location hasn’t been announced.
 
Trump calls Elon Musk 'genius'

Trump said just now on CNBC that Tesla is building a big plant in America. There goes shorties theory of Trump hating on Elon for building GF3 in China

Actually I'm glad Trump jumped on the Tesla success bandwagon - even if his administration is undermining Tesla's mission on all fronts, appearances matter and a vindictive Trump is dangerous and unpredictable.

I also hope SpaceX is going to roll out the red carpet for Pence or Trump, for the Falcon 9 Crew Dragon NASA astronaut launch to the ISS this ~April, which I'm sure will feature prominently in Trump's re-election campaign.
 
Seriously, I don’t see real sellers until $1,000+. At that point I’ll sell 200 shares to recoup my initial investment and keep 900 shares forever. Most of the weak longs were wiped out and replaced by new investors last year. The smart ones know that they are sitting on gold

Also, gap up to new ATH means we will probably gap fill this morning, like what happened Tuesday last week. Might be wise to take profits on some shorter term calls at open and rebuy them later
Well, MMs aren't going to like the way the CALLS open interest is shaping up for this Friday's options expiry. Yup, that big blue spike is at 11.7k CALLS @ the $550 Strike price. Worse still are the 8k @ $600. Expect some heavy thumbs on the scales, but who knows with the Buying Interest right now. This could run to $600 and right quick.

TSLA.Open-Interest.2020-01-24.21.png


Cheers!
 
I toured the Fremont factory on 12/31/2019. All I can say under signed NDA is I would not hold your breath for 2/2020. Then again, I'm not a production line installation consultant so wtf do I know? If they can build an entire GF3 in China in record time, maybe they can bring up and test a Model Y robotic final assembly line in record time also?? Time (or another factory tour under NDA! :cool:) will tell...

This is not under NDA but educated guesses. Since the Model Y shares ~70% parts with the 3, then it seems they could have hand-assembled many test Model Y's and that is what we are seeing on the roads. My tour was abbreviated for New Year's Eve so the tram did not take us to see the huge stamping presses. My guess is they already have final or near-final molds for Model Y body panels and have stamped out enough of them to hand assemble the Model Y's they needed for testing.

It is referring to the same, single source (originally quoted on Teslalounge):

Anner J. Bonilla of HW 2.5 ️ on Twitter

Original, unconfirmed reddit Teslalounge post:
Model Y deliveries confirmed for next month! : TeslaLounge