Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[bhtooefr]

I wouldn't say no news, there has actually been news (a workaround for the Michigan sales ban being approved, and POTUS revealing a new US Tesla factory (which, to be fair, was reasonably predictable, and was reported as having been investigated)), as well as strong rumor re: the Model Y.

 

[dw4ngg]

Glad I made the degenerate decision yday to buy $555 weekly calls

 

[RobStark]

No, Tesla will build Cybertruck in Nevada. And why would they start planning for 50K/yr when they have hundreds of thousands of reservations already?

Because $100 refundable reservations are not necessarily indicative of long term steady state demand.

 

[dw4ngg]

Because $100 refundable reservations are not necessarily indicative of long term steady state demand.

Agreed. I would’ve put one in except it’s not high enough to guarantee an earlier delivery. If it was $1,000 or so I would have pre ordered

 

[LJS22]

Short-Sellers Took on Elon Musk and Tesla in 2019 and Lost
“I put on a small short condition [Wednesday] that for an investment firm my sons and I run,” Brad Cornell, emeritus professor of finance at UCLA and managing director at global consulting firm BRG, tells Fortune. “We thought at $488 it was so wildly overvalued, how long could it go on?”

still makes me giggle lol maybe they covered. ‘‘Twas a short short

 

[rsm287]

View attachment 503093

Can someone please let me know what portal I stepped into where the media loves Musk, even Dana Hull calls TSLAQ "obsessives", the markets are obsessed with the stock and immune to FUD, and Trump is Musk's biggest fan and thinks climate change isn't a hoax?

The Dana Hull article still seems to be anti-Tesla and supporting TSLAQ though (not surprisingly for her).

 

[CorneliusXX]

I think another US GF for Cyberfactory will be announced soon. (+ is this what Trump is referring to?)

So what if Tesla does a Cap raise and expedites the new GF?

I'd say rockets. He said he wants to send a fleet of 1k starship to Mars. That's going to need a giant factory.

It also ties in with the "conversation" and aligns with trump's space force plans.

 

[juanmedina]

About 28 hrs ago Tesla stock traded around $510. What a difference a day makes. Yesterday opened at 530 and closed at 547. Opening today is tracking to be above 570 if the premarket price holds.

These large moves on no news are a highlight to me how fickle human emotion can be. Such a small change in sentiment can have so drastic a price impact. And elicit strong emotions! Huge validation and joy to long holders. FOMO to those on the sidelines. And I can only imagine fear for shortsellers.

I feel like a missed the train

 

[Artful Dodger]

No, Tesla will build Cybertruck in Nevada. And why would they start planning for 50K/yr when they have hundreds of thousands of reservations already?

Because the can build 50K Cybertrucks now, and they don't know how to build 600k/yr anywhere. Do YOU know how to stamp stainless steel without breaking the dies? Ford tried and couldn't do it. Tesla needs to INVENT some *sugar* first. In the meantime, it's 50k IKEA flat pack trucks with Model S Raven or Plaid powertrains because they've already DONE the engineering on those, and they can just take the parts of already capitalized production systems.

The rest will come but it'll take time.

 

[Sean Wagner]

Jesus Christ

Praise the Lord and watch those Raptors rip.

I'm beyond amazed and crave some reliable input. Hedge fund algos shifting billions?

Edit: can't see VAG, GM, or Ford moving in the opposite direction. Why not?

 

[jerry33]

Because $100 refundable reservations are not necessarily indicative of long term steady state demand.

True, but just look at the Cybertruck. It's pretty hard to imagine anyone wanting one of those older dated designs.

 

[jerry33]

Because the can build 50K Cybertrucks now, and they don't know how to build 600k/yr anywhere. Do YOU know how to stamp stainless steel without breaking the dies?

No one does, that's why they will be folded and not stamped.

 

[FrankSG]

So the really interesting thing to me is yesterday I saw the fee rate at IB shoot up from 0.25 to 0.4373. I still have this logged daily, so the last time the fee rate was this high was November. It honestly looks like someone shorted a bunch of shares yesterday. But, it could also be someone decided to stop lending their shares reducing the supply. Either way that isn't a good sign for anyone hoping to cover. I'll keep watching and see if it sticks. Sometimes this can be a brief one day thing.

Wasn't it something like 0.9 back in June?

Praise the Lord and watch those Raptors rip.

I'm beyond amazed and crave some reliable input. Hedge fund algos shifting billions?

When CNBC discussed the Blackrock announcement last week, they mentioned there would be a big investor conference of some sort this week, and they said this announcement would almost certainly be discussed among hedge funds there. Maybe some of them have been talking TSLA?

 

[anthonyj]

Ghosn predicted Nissan will go bankrupt by 2022, lawyer says

 

[Singer3000]

I'd say rockets. He said he wants to send a fleet of 1k starship to Mars. That's going to need a giant factory.

It also ties in with the "conversation" and aligns with trump's space force plans.

Indeed. Perhaps we will soon see a GF5 in the US but I don’t see any reason why POTUS would necessarily have special knowledge of this. A factory churning out 100 skyscraper sized rockets per year is however something with a national security angle.

 

[Swampgator]

Because the can build 50K Cybertrucks now, and they don't know how to build 600k/yr anywhere. Do YOU know how to stamp stainless steel without breaking the dies? Ford tried and couldn't do it. Tesla needs to INVENT some *sugar* first. In the meantime, it's 50k IKEA flat pack trucks with Model S Raven or Plaid powertrains because they've already DONE the engineering on those, and they can just take the parts of already capitalized production systems.

The rest will come but it'll take time.

You don't stamp Stainless. You laser cut and then etch and bend it. Tesla does not need any stamping or paint shop for Cybertruck. SInce the drivetrains are made in Nevada already, very simple to add the body line and assembly right there.

 

[Artful Dodger]

575,145 shares of TSLA traded in the Pre-Market before 08:00 hrs. That's before most customers have access to the Market.

Then 85,522 shares traded at 08:01 which is heavier volume than yesterday's avg during the main session, by a factor of 2x.

 

[Singuy]

Ghosn predicted Nissan will go bankrupt by 2022, lawyer says

They should. Their cars are absolutely junk. Got rid of our 56k miles infiniti recently.

It had a transmission swap at 30k miles
It needs another new transmission
Mcu bugs out and won't star the car from time to time , leaving my wife stranded. F that car.

 

[fdutra1]

I wouldn't say no news, there has actually been news (a workaround for the Michigan sales ban being approved, and POTUS revealing a new US Tesla factory (which, to be fair, was reasonably predictable, and was reported as having been investigated)), as well as strong rumor re: the Model Y.

Not to mention the Wedbush upgrade to $550 with a $900 Bullish possibility

 

[EinSV]

Re Cybertruck

We'll hopefully find out more on production plans on the call next week, but when:

(1) you likely have ~400,000 reservations
(2) steady state demand for your products has always exceeded pre-production reservations
(3) you can build a ~300,000 vehicle plant for the same capex others would need for a 50,000 vehicle plant
(4) you have a long history of not shying away from risk and
(5) you plan to grow 50-100% per year

Then (IMO) most likely you build a plant able to build a few hundred thousand Cybertrucks per year as soon as possible

The drastic reduction in capex Munro forecasts allows Tesla to grow faster with much less at risk in case demand falls unexpectedly, recession hits, etc.