Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SO16]

No doubt Musk's vision will create jobs. But we are still talking about for 1 job created, 3-5 are lost as it should be. Make no mistake, going renewable is not some job creation endeavor. Going autonomous taxi is not some job creating endeavor. Nothing in Musk's plan screams job creation net positive.

Colonizing Mars perhaps.

 

[SageBrush]

Spotted in LA. Appropriate for page (6)420

Funny, but it also reminds me that the leverage that Tesla/TSLA currently enjoys from the same people who buy TSLA also buying Tesla can work both ways.

I'm not against it at all; I just hope that some hedges are built in.

 

[MC3OZ]

This view of Tesla being super successful means job losses is completely wrong. The renewable energy industry employees exponentially more people than the fossil fuel industry. That will only grow as renewable energy grows as Tesla is more successful. Will some people lose their jobs at traditional auto? Sure. But there will be a net gain in jobs if Tesla is widly successful. Not even close

It is always true that change employs more people than stagnation...

It isn't just the transition to EVs and Clean energy, more broadly software, AI and automation are in theory displacing a lot of jobs...

In practice, up to this point in history new jobs have always emerged in sufficient numbers.....

While that may not be true for ever it is true for the transition, say the next 20-30 years and from a CC point of view that 20-30 years is important for the future of the planet and humanity. From a social, financial and political point of view they next 20-30 years is also vital, as all these areas are under threat for greed, manipulation and a resulting lack of trust, and a unsustainable trajectory..

So FF and business as usual, will not be sustainable in the next 20-30 years.....

We need to get through the next 20-30 years before worrying about the future beyond that, Tesla is a big part of the solution. So yes people who invested in Tesla are big winners and rightly so IMO, as many have been along for the entire journey and have showed patience, intelligence and good judgement.

I am glad patience, sustainability and intelligence is winning out over greed, ignorance, stupidity and anger.

 

[RobStark]

 

[SageBrush]

Do not fear better ways of accomplishing the same thing.

More stuff, more leisure time, more food.

America is something of a cautionary tale already. I don't think 'progress' can be stopped and I would not want it to but I don't think there is much doubt that a double edged sword is in play. Mostly I just want a healthy planet and ecology; after that I am happy to just avoid the worse of human stupidity.

 

[rsm287]

Autopilot continues to improve all the time (starts at about 0:45):

Autopilot Drives 45 Miles Including City Streets With NO Interventions

 

[AlexS]

is there really a difference? they are all spelled with a BS (should add UBS who shouldn't even be allowed to comment on TSLA after trying to suing Sandy Munro for the 3 tear down ...thanks for the reminder)
I could be a better Tesla Analyst than most of them. At least get your feet on the ground and in the factories to see what is really going on, right? check out how much service has changed over the years (at least in the local CA super high volume areas) lots of shtuff is happening.
competition? still a big zero.
Mr Mad money is an example of what the future brings. just had a janitorial leaf driver tell me his wife rode in a 3 and game over

GS PT has been biggest analysts mover of TSLA SP. They dropped coverage last year in summer. GS last PT was 158. Wondering when they might initiate again.

 

[Singuy]

I think you need to look at the entire economic system.

If Tesla becomes wildly successful and thus displaces jobs in the ICE industries, gas and oil, repair and maintenance, healthcare, etc., yes, jobs will be lost. This will be the direct result of EV's and electricity offering a more efficient way to carry out the needed functions. So, the end-users, ultimately all of us, get more for less.

Tesla, the company, will receive some of the benefits directly in the form of profits. These profits will either flow to shareholders where they can be spent in the general economy or they will be re-invested by the company expanding, building new factories, and researching and developing new products, processes and technologies. The capital freed up by the efficiencies of electrifying transportation and energy markets will not be wasted. This is the capital that makes economies dynamic and useful and allows a wider diversity of jobs and economic opportunities.

In America, before food production was automated starting with the threshing machine in the 1780's, 90% of the working population worked in agriculture. This was hard, dirty, low-paying work that the threshing machine replaced. Jobs were lost and would continue to be lost as advances in food production increased efficiencies and the standard of living which, in turn, created demand for new jobs in new industries. People now had not only more money but more time to spend increasing their quality of life in other ways. The same kind of changes will happen as the electrification of energy and transportation markets increases economic efficiency. With cleaner air, our cities will have healthier populations needing less health care. This will save billions in federal healthcare costs and private employee sick leave. I could go on and on but suffice to say that increased efficiencies are always good for the economy and people's standard of living and Tesla is leading the charge.

Do not fear better ways of accomplishing the same thing.

I agree with this. Maybe this time will be the same, people will just transition into other fields.

The only unknown this time around is the exponential increase in the speed of disruption. Elon said with a flip of FSD switch, it will be the most assets transfer in the history our planet. Tesla is disrupting so many things so quickly that it may cause a lot of short term pain for lots of people. I do think eventually as time passes, people will adapt to the new market and employ themselves accordingly.

 

[Zaxxon]

Light sourcing at this point, but...

Et tu, Volvo?

 

[madodel]

[QUOTE="I also think Elon should make a point in having Ralph Nader get a tour of Sparks Gigafactory, use Nader's call out as a marketing opportunity for positive post tour comments...

Whatever happened to Einhorn's planned visit to the factory? Did it go ahead?

If so was he greeted by a unicorn farting sparkles?

 

[ammulder]

FWIW, I stopped at a new sales & service center in Princeton, NJ today. They said they just opened last week. They had showroom and test drive cars on hand, but no inventory. Crazy that even when they open a new sales location right now it has no inventory!

They said they know no more than we do about the Model Y. But they said there is *some* solar roof activity in NJ/PA and it will probably really get going in 6 months.

 

[Curt Renz]

I agree with this. Maybe this time will be the same, people will just transition into other fields.

The only unknown this time around is the exponential increase in the speed of disruption. Elon said with a flip of FSD switch, it will be the most assets transfer in the history our planet. Tesla is disrupting so many things so quickly that it may cause a lot of short term pain for lots of people. I do think eventually as time passes, people will adapt to the new market and employ themselves accordingly.

Indeed, they always have been able to adapt. The eternal process keeps lowering domestic expenses while allowing for more leisure time. Meanwhile, community colleges are very good at training people for work in transformative industries.

 

[Curt Renz]

The trend is your friend. I've placed comparative charts for GM and TSLA in the Technical Analysis thread: TSLA Technical Analysis

 

[LJS22]

No doubt Musk's vision will create jobs. But we are still talking about for 1 job created, 3-5 are lost as it should be. Make no mistake, going renewable is not some job creation endeavor. Going autonomous taxi is not some job creating endeavor. Nothing in Musk's plan screams job creation net positive.

Which is why Musk is more of an advocate for UBI. He has an engineering mindset where he sees unnecessary parts in the whole and cuts them out. He sees most human jobs as expendable to AI and so under that premise jobs are not important if the work is lowering the cost of the goods then everyone can benefit

 

[Thekiwi]

GS PT has been biggest analysts mover of TSLA SP. They dropped coverage last year in summer. GS last PT was 158. Wondering when they might initiate again.

I'm surprised anyone is releasing new price targets / Upgrades / Downgrades within a week or so from earnings (I kid, I know exactly why, as does everyone else here, but it is just so obvious they aren’t being authentic).

 

[HG Wells]

FWIW, I stopped at a new sales & service center in Princeton, NJ today. They said they just opened last week. They had showroom and test drive cars on hand, but no inventory. Crazy that even when they open a new sales location right now it has no inventory!

They said they know no more than we do about the Model Y. But they said there is *some* solar roof activity in NJ/PA and it will probably really get going in 6 months.

Be thankful they had a test drive car.
A couple of weeks ago all the demos sold.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Is it really possible to bankrupt a MM? I thought they had access to all the free borrowed shares they want, or something like that.

The total short interest right now is only $15B or so (pocket lint to these monsters), but its harder to estimate what Market Maker's total exposure might be via existing options contracts.

It's a Wall St. truism that the derivatives market is 10x larger than the equities market, so that roughly would put MMs total exposure somewhere near the $150B level. It could even be 10x greater than that since TSLA is by far the most overcrowed short on Wall St, and these short positions are generally hedged via options.

But even $1.5T is not enough to bankrupt these institutions unless all that debt is concentrated in only a few hands. Then it could be enough to adversely affect the working capital of some of these big investment banks. We have little insight to their total exposure, and how concentrated it is amongst those MMs.

We did get a glimpse into the amount of money pooled in these large banks from the GAO's Audit of the Federal Reserve's "stress testing" 10 big banks after the 2007-09 monetary crisis. There was over $15T in reserve currency 'loaned' out by the Fed over 18 months at 0.01% annual interest rate: (TARP + others programs)

Federal Reserve System: Opportunities Exist to Strengthen Policies and Processes for Managing Emergency Assistance. | GAO-11-696 | Jul 21, 2011

Table 8: Institutions with Largest Total Transaction Amounts ($Billions) - Pg 144 of 266 in Full Report

With the Federal Reserve backstopping big banks like this, they're not going bankrupt. But Nader may indeed be reacting to nervous jitters he's feeling amongst the Wall St. elite. Those boys get truly unhinged whenever they find out they may not be the smartest person in the room. Duh.

Regards,
Lodger

 

[MC3OZ]

I agree with this. Maybe this time will be the same, people will just transition into other fields.

The only unknown this time around is the exponential increase in the speed of disruption. Elon said with a flip of FSD switch, it will be the most assets transfer in the history our planet. Tesla is disrupting so many things so quickly that it may cause a lot of short term pain for lots of people. I do think eventually as time passes, people will adapt to the new market and employ themselves accordingly.

I would say Tesla and the Chinese.

China is happy to finish 2nd to Tesla for now, in 20-30 years time they will want to be top dog...

I think China can and probably will finish 2nd in terms of global EV market share, and top in just about any other emerging technology you want to mention....

Elon and Tesla are the only serious competition the Chinese have, but for now they are on the same side, and China is more than happy to finish 2nd and the current set up at GF3 is a win/win. The Chinese are happy to have Tesla to benchmark and improve their domestic products. That is mostly by trying to compete with Tesla, not always by stealing IP.

Most established car makers are not really up for the fight in terms of competing with Tesla, they can't see the Chinese coming, and my hunch is they will regret that.

To be clear, it is very hard for established car makers, there are no easy options, and no guarantee of success...

 

[Artful Dodger]

The only appropriate modern response to this is:
OK Boomer.

Ahaha, no. Ralph Nader was born in 1934. That puts him in the 'Silent Generation'. Now isn't that even better advice for Ralphie? WE BOOMERS THANK YOU!

Cheers!

 

[SMAlset]

Be thankful they had a test drive car.
A couple of weeks ago all the demos sold.

We got a call right after the new year to see if we wanted to come in to the Santana Row (San Jose, CA) location for test drive. We are fine with our cars right now but went in that Saturday, 4th, to talk about getting solar/PowerWalls. They had all the 3 models on the floor to view and had cars for a test drive so they were working quickly to get those to the stores so people could come in and see if they needed that step before ordering. Inventory will follow.