Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[sparcs]

I know many of you have no reason to venture into the UK & Ireland subsection, but there is an interesting thread there covering the ID.3, based on a pre-launch event here in the UK yesterday - VW ID.3 Preview event in London on 25th January, fancy going?

Perhaps not surprising to many here, but it sounds like an overpriced disappointment. I'm not just saying this as a Tesla fanboi, I was generally expecting it to offer more for the money. I'm sure it will still have its buyers, but the Model 3 SR+ seems the much more compelling vehicle for the money.

what's the disappointment? is the pricing the same as a Model 3 SR+?

 

[wipster]

I know many of you have no reason to venture into the UK & Ireland subsection, but there is an interesting thread there covering the ID.3, based on a pre-launch event here in the UK yesterday - VW ID.3 Preview event in London on 25th January, fancy going?

Perhaps not surprising to many here, but it sounds like an overpriced disappointment. I'm not just saying this as a Tesla fanboi, I was generally expecting it to offer more for the money. I'm sure it will still have its buyers, but the Model 3 SR+ seems the much more compelling vehicle for the money.

Would (or will) be interesting in seeing what the production ID.3's look like... what I've seen has left me cold, especially as good as the preproduction ones looked (very cool futuristic lighting for example).

 

[Krugerrand]

(imagine the following in a Johnny Cash voice)

You think Elon has solved the problem of accidental death?
You think not-talking about it will prevent it?

What is there exactly to talk about? He has bodyguards. He hasn’t wing walked in awhile. He travels almost exclusively by Tesla vehicles (highest safety ratings) and his private jet. Presumably he sees a Dr regularly, but clearly doesn’t sleep as much as he should or vacation enough.

It’s pretty simple; if you think he’s at a too high risk of passing and nobody else can keep Tesla going; get out.

 

[EVMeister]

what's the disappointment? is the pricing the same as a Model 3 SR+?

The 1st Edition (launch model) will cost ~£36,000 vs. ~£39,000 for the Model 3. Just too close given the Model 3 SR+ is the larger, faster and more luxurious vehicle. With better range and charging solution as well.

 

[Fact Checking]

what's the disappointment? is the pricing the same as a Model 3 SR+?

Price is "just below £36,000" vs. the SR+ of £38,500.

Smaller yet heavier, 100 kW charging rate vs. 170 kW with the SR+, no Supercharger network, etc.

I'm pretty sure the lowest price variant also comes with a few good options "missing", while the SR+ has great standard equipment.

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

The 1st Edition (launch model) will cost ~£36,000 vs. ~£39,000 for the Model 3. Just too close given the Model 3 SR+ is the larger, faster and more luxurious vehicle. With better range and charging solution as well.

Plus Autopilot? From what I have seen the ID.3 does not have any equivalent driver assist.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Deaths are tragic, but sick people who survive also bears a high economic cost. This appears to be very contagious. Let alone the economic impact of quaranteening a city with a population of 11 million

Tired of your scare tactic posts. Sit down breath easy. If your aware of the long term sequela of the infection you must process a time machine. I frankly feared Ebola a lot more than this but inciting fear and panic is irresponsible.

 

[JustSaying]

Software is the biggest bottleneck for HW3 retrofits (at least for HW2.5 cars). If the software doesn’t install correctly, Tesla has held cars for two days before the software loads correctly.

BTW, HW 3 Retro Fit costs , to the extent they were reasonably estmated, should not impact future Tesla's income statements as they should be included as a component of the deferred FSD income.

 

[elasalle]

After virus scare, markets look to Fed rate policy to keep stock rally going

• But investor focus may shift to other factors in the coming week— the Federal Reserve’s meeting Tuesday and Wednesday and earnings reports from 135 S&P 500 companies.
• Apple is among the companies reporting earnings, and the market darling, at another new high Friday, could have a big impact on sentiment.
• Economic data in the coming week includes the first look at fourth quarter GDP growth on Thursday, durable goods on Tuesday and personal income and spending Friday.

+Market has herd mentality, so Coronavirus will likely cause short term dip, but nothing big.

 

[Green Pete]

Tired of your scare tactic posts. Sit down breath easy. If your aware of the long term sequela of the infection you must process a time machine. I frankly feared Ebola a lot more than this but inciting fear and panic is irresponsible.

I'm not sure I am inciting fear or panic. I am stating facts that could be relevant to market macros. Wuhan is under quarantine. It has a population of 11 million. There are more than 10 other cities so far also under quarantine. Chinese new year is a multi week period where more people move across the country than an annual travel period in the world. Cities become very empty during this period. If this quarantine extends into post new year time frame when normal business should have resumed it would be foolish to assume it wouldn't affect the world's second largest economy. It does appear the government's message is getting through. My relatives in southern china initially thought it was all a bunch of silliness but have now decided to cancel all family gatherings.

Yes. I am speculating. But more than s and p inclusion model y in Feb level speculation. Am I going to sell? No. Does it potentially affect short team market pricing which is relevant to the large group that appears to be options trading. I think so.

No need to get snarky.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

So if the parameters of the Wuhan virus verify (they might not, it might mutate, etc.), the impact on GF3 production might be negative, but the impact on both MIC Model 3 and Fremont S/X/3 demand (Biodefense Mode ...) could be positive.

Macros next week will possibly be negatively impacted, which might affect TSLA through standard correlations.

I wonder if this crisis will have much of an impact on Tesla's production in Q1. Aren't GF3 and its supplying companies closed next week because of the Chinese New Year? That means any transport restrictions for workers will only start having a negative effect in one week's time. GF3 is probably still at max. 1,000 cars per week, with one shift. The second shift, raising that number to 2,000 per week, is supposed to start mid-February, according to some reports. If GF3 would suffer a lock down until mid February (three weeks from now), it would produce 2,000 cars less than planned. Not trivial, but also not hugely important to Tesla's finances in Q1. So not the disaster the shorties are hoping for. Ofcourse it all depends on how long a possible lock down would last, if the virus affects workers and if there are enough parts/supplies when production starts up again.

 

[Skryll]

A potentially positive result of this nearly two-year-old conversation coming to light is a general realization of the extremely poor advice the President is getting.

True but honestly probably doesnt make a difference.

 

[Fact Checking]

I wonder if this crisis will have much of an impact on Tesla's production in Q1. Aren't GF3 and its supplying companies closed next week because of the Chinese New Year? That means any transport restrictions for workers will only start having a negative effect in one week's time. GF3 is probably still at max. 1,000 cars per week, with one shift. The second shift, raising that number to 2,000 per week, is supposed to start mid-February, according to some reports. If GF3 would suffer a lock down until mid February (three weeks from now), it would produce 2,000 cars less than planned. Not trivial, but also not hugely important to Tesla's finances in Q1. So not the disaster the shorties are hoping for. Ofcourse it all depends on how long a possible lock down would last, if the virus affects workers and if there are enough parts/supplies when production starts up again.

So I'm really going out on a limb trying to estimate how long the restrictions are going to last, but the spreading of the SARS coronavirus is probably the closest analogy we have:

December 8 was probably the first case for the Wuhan virus - so if we shift the SARS graph by two months we get a peak in February and an end of new infections somewhere around May.

So all of Q1 would be impacted.

But, if the Wuhan virus is more contagious than SARS, which it appears to be, then this materially changes the speed of the infection wave.

I'd definitely warn against trying to compare SARS which was stopped early on, against the WuFlu, which appears to spread more easily and possibly won't be stopped.

If we compare to the regular "flu season", we are talking about months:

But regular flu is usually less contagious and spreading stops in the northern hemisphere in the summer, because the conditions to spread it deteriorate.

An extreme case of influenza was the Spanish Flu which spread in 3 waves until herd immunity reduced its effective R0 below the critical threshold:

That took 3 years - but international travel was much slower back then.

Another possible outcome is that if the symptoms are mild the Chinese authorities will let it run its course. In this case the Chinese economy would be less affected.

Does anyone have any idea how long it will take to develop a vaccine and produce it at scale?

 

[AudubonB]

...
One would normally not set off (even small) explosives before the whole site has been surveyed for unexploded ordnance, so I take this as a strong indication that by now the whole site has been surveyed for that...

Is this true even for relatively large blocks like the multi-hundred hectare Tesla site, or is that policy only for relatively small urban locations? As an example, why then would the survey teams thereupon stop at the plot's boundary, as opposed to including at least _X_ meters further out along the peripheral boundaries?

 

[ggr]

the WuFlu

Did you coin this term? It's misleading, since Wuhan NCoV is not a strain of influenza.

Edit: also how come there are annual seasons missing from that graph? Seems strange. (Not blaming you, unless you put it together...)

 

[JBRR]

So I'm really going out on a limb trying to estimate how long the restrictions are going to last, but the spreading of the SARS coronavirus is probably the closest analogy we have:

View attachment 504631​

December 8 was probably the first case for the Wuhan virus - so if we shift the SARS graph by two months we get a peak in February and an end of new infections somewhere around May.

So all of Q1 would be impacted.

But, if the Wuhan virus is more contagious than SARS, which it appears to be, then this materially changes the speed of the infection wave.

I'd definitely warn against trying to compare SARS was stopped early on, against the WuFlu, which appears to spread more easily and possibly won't be stopped.

If we compare to the regular "flu season", we are talking about months:

View attachment 504634​

But regular flu is usually less contagious and spreading stops in the northern hemisphere in the summer, because the conditions to spread it deteriorate.

An extreme case of influenza was the Spanish Flu which spread in 3 waves until herd immunity reduced its effective R0 below the critical threshold:

View attachment 504636​

That took 3 years - but travel was much slower back then.

Another possible outcome is that if the symptoms are mild the Chinese authorities will let it run its course. In this case the Chinese economy would be less affected.

Does anyone have any idea how long it will take to develop a vaccine and produce it at scale?

Inovio’s stock soars after receiving grant to develop coronavirus vaccine

"
Inovio and its partners was able to advance its vaccine for Zika virus “from bench to human testing” in seven months, which Inovio said it believed to be the fastest vaccine development on record in recent decades.


“We have challenged ourselves to do this one even faster,” said Joseph Kim, in a phone interview with MarketWatch.


Kim said after the DNA sequence of the new coronavirus strain was made publicly available on Jan. 11, Inovio was able to design and construct a potential vaccine in “a matter of hours,” and the animal-testing process has already begun.


Kim said he’s targeting the first human tests to begin in the U.S. “before early summer.” And while it could typically take years to get a vaccine through all three phases of human testing, “in a potential outbreak setting, there could be a lot of shortcuts,” Kim said."

Latest numbers:
The Spectator Index on Twitter
CORONAVIRUS - 80 people dead - Around 400 people in serious condition - Over 2300 people infected
11:28 PM · Jan 26, 2020·

 

[SageBrush]

Price is "just below £36,000" vs. the SR+ of £38,500.

Smaller yet heavier, 100 kW charging rate vs. 170 kW with the SR+, no Supercharger network, etc.

I'm pretty sure the lowest price variant also comes with a few good options "missing", while the SR+ has great standard equipment.

Are these prices both adjusted for tax advantages ?

 

[JustSaying]

FWIW, I was told this by my service manager when I picked up my 2018 Model 3 after recently getting the HW3 retrofit.

LR Model 3 vin #99XX, I am in no hurry for HW3. I'll wait...

 

[Bunky]

For context, the CDC estimates that the flu is responsible for 12,000-61,000 deaths per year since 2010 in the US alone. Some people love to freak out about this stuff and the American entertainment news media will gladly use it to suck viewers in.

I will gladly buy any and all Coronavirus related dips.

 

[SageBrush]

"So I'm really going out on a limb trying to estimate how long the restrictions are going to last, but the spreading of the SARS coronavirus is probably the closest analogy we have:"

Agree about the virus, but China is handling this outbreak much, much better than SARS