Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Dutchie]

Cash Increases $1B from 5.3B in Q3 to $6.3B in Q4. Awesome!!

That's what I liked the most! Nice cushion to have

 

[Fact Checking]

Ok, just read through the update letter, very solid report!

• Over $1b in free cash flow, all time record, hit the ball out of the park - not even hyperbulls expected that. Amazon growth model, here we come!
• Big revenue beat with $7.3b - all time record.
• 500k+ deliveries guidance for 2020 is +40% YoY growth - the Tesla growth story continues.
• Model Y sharing assembly capacity with the Model 3 was speculated about, but still caught everyone by surprise. Announcement of Model Y production, photos of the new BIW line with Model Ys already in production and announcement of first deliveries by end of March are obviously bombshell news.
• GAAP profits are lower than expected, but mostly only due to non-cash stock compensation expenses. Cash from operations and gross profits were all very nice.
• All time cash and cash equivalents record of $6.3b pushes out the date of bankwuptcy to ... never.
• A bit higher ZEV revenue - I presume from FCA. Should significantly increase in 2020.
• The "unsustainable" margins from Q3 were sustained in Q4.
• Edit: hat tip to @adesai, combined guided production capacity annual run rate is at 760,000/year - which is way beyond all expectations!

Congratulations Tesla!!

 

[Singuy]

Yes, that statement stuck out to me as well.

I believe they are stating operation will be normal vs under producing. I read it as "production hell will not be bad in 2020".

 

[ZeApelido]

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

"I still get the feeling they are sandbagging the beginning of Model Y production date, to not Osborne Model 3/X sales. From some news articles, seems like tooling and equipment were ordered in 2016 for a mid 2017 start.

I always thought they would start making Model Y in Fremont. Then they said Gigafactory but now are hedging. I don't know what the ploy is, but I still get the feeling Model is going into production in Q1 or Q2 2020 in Fremont."

Nailed it!

 

[Krugerrand]

And now, a break from the earnings countdown. WSJ has a video entitled, 'Three Continents and Hours and Hours of Charging. The electric vehicle road test".

Eight reporters try out different brand EVs on different continents. Their experiences: commuting around town mostly fine. Long-distance travel: range anxiety, having to turn off features (heat, A/C) to reach destination, lack of charging stations, broken or in-use public charging stations. *Finally* mention Tesla Superchargers having a better experience, but then they focus on one reporter in a Model 3 encountering a full station and then waiting for an hour to charge fully. This is in the Northeast where Superchargers are abundant. And the reporter obviously did not know how to minimize charging time in a Tesla (stop often, keep battery in the bottom of capacity to maximize charge rate).

Claims video is first of a series. If I have time, maybe it's possible to contact the editorial staff. Maybe others here can do so.

And now back to your
regularly scheduled programming...

I feel another run by Tesla owners is in order to show the reporters how it should have been done.

 

[MP3Mike]

Yes, that's the implication. Whether that paying customer is at arms length or a Tesla employee is another question...

And we don't know if homologation has been completed yet or not.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Did anyone calculate the margins on the cars? They used to publish them in the report but I can’t find them in the new setup.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Would they lie on an earnings report?

"Increased Model Y all-wheel drive EPA range to 315 miles from 280 miles"

315 miles on the web site. And $52,990!

 

[ZeApelido]

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

Model 3 first release candidate seen end of March 2017 (tweeted out by Musk). Basically 4 months from production start.

Based on Model Y sightings so far, I feel like we are in early April 2017 for amount of sightings.

If we assume similar time to production, then yes that would be January / February.

Since Tesla is always improving, maybe it's even faster

Why would anyone think it is a slower ramp to production than the Model 3?

Yes, I am basing this on what is observed, not what Elon says.

Note Elon also B.S.ed the idea that the Model Y was going to be built at GF1. And downplayed Model Y at its own reveal. And has already sandbagged the timeline.

There is no evidence that production will start later than Q1

I still expect Model Y timeline to be pulled up even further. Remember initially Model 3 was expected to take 6 months to ramp to 5000 / week "volume production".

Volume production in summer means production start in Q1. Now maybe they store them for a few months. But I expect Q4 earnings to be "oh BTW production is starting now"

Oh yeah, I totally nailed it, lol.

The GF1 / Fremont debate less than a year ago was total horsepoop!

 

[phantasms]

315 miles on the web site. And $52,990!

Is that a price change?

 

[dl003]

I noticed the financials slides were all marked "Unaudited". Expect the shorts to run with that.

After they're done covering of course.

 

[gene]

On the Tesla website 2wd (RWD) Model Y is gone. I wonder if they have decided to make only AWD (a good idea) and what about the previous RWD orders, will they still be supplied to those taht ordered them?

 

[Cherry Wine]

So need a $151M+ GAAP profit in Q1'2020 for March S&P inclusion, correct?

 

[VQTRVA]

Did anyone calculate the margins on the cars? They used to publish them in the report but I can’t find them in the new setup.

I see it on top of slide 4 as 22.5% in 4Q19. Down from 22.8% in 3Q19.

https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/b3cf7f5e-546a-4a65-9888-c928b914b529

 

[sparcs]

315 miles on the web site. And $52,990!

it also says at the bottom of the Model Y page "First deliveries begin in March 2020"

 

[Fobble]

I am happy now. Let me go back to work

 

[Curt Renz]

CNBC Fast Money will begin in about a minute. Regular panelist and money manager Tim Seymour has for a long-time been a vocal Tesla short seller. In past months he has declared he will cover at $320-25 then at $370. More recently he has said he is waiting for the earnings report. Now let's hear what he has to say.

 

[UncaNed]

Link to the EP please?? Earnings Call I mean.

 

[gene]

Increase of $990.

 

[ggr]

Did anyone calculate the margins on the cars? They used to publish them in the report but I can’t find them in the new setup.

Slide 4, automotive gross margin 22.5%.