Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[juanmedina]

Meanwhile, Robinhood users are dumping still:

View attachment 508559

FEAR

 

[dl003]

My Tesla stock is up 2.5x on average and I've made half my yearly income in options over the past few months. I don't have wounds to lick.

The longs are licking their wounds? What wounds?

Now I'm sure there are people that bought over $950 who might be kicking themselves but to generally characterize longs as "licking their wounds" just trips my logic board.

Let me rephrase that. I meant to say "instead of re-analyzing the current situation." Surely a lot of people must have found late Tuesday and Wednesday to be unnatural, to say the least. Wouldn't it be more rational to let this play out a little bit, let MMs do their thing before buying again. I don't believe in timing the market but I think this is way more shady than I'm comfortable with.

 

[Artful Dodger]

If you look current market volatility and headwinds due to CR-virus, I would guess that the probability of TSLA filling the gap of around 660-650 range is higher than not.
What does others think about this?

Not a chance today. Shortzes don't want to give up the 'hammer' for tomorrow by re-invoking the "uptick rule", which they would do today if the SP fell below $734.70 - 10% = $661.23

 

[Nocturnal]

This early investor on CNBC that sold his shares in 2013 just said Tesla is way overvalued because they were guiding 380,000-420,000 and they only reached 360k....nobody corrected him.

If you sold your shares in 2013 the only thing you should say is there were doubts that the company would survive as early as last year, now it feels like we are past that so sky’s the limit for them. Don’t come on and trash talk with lies.

He made a huge mistake, but can't allow himself to admit that because of the damage it would do to his psyche.

Cognitive Dissonance
In the field of psychology, cognitive dissonance is the experience of psychological stress that occurs when a person holds two or more contradictory beliefs, ideas, values, or participates in an action that goes against one of these three. According to this theory, when two actions or ideas are not psychologically consistent with each other, people will do all in their power to change them until they become consistent. The discomfort is triggered by the person's belief clashing with new information perceived, wherein they will try to find a way to resolve the contradiction to reduce their discomfort.

Let me rephrase that. I meant to say "instead of re-analyzing the current situation." Surely a lot of people must have found late Tuesday and Wednesday to be unnatural, to say the least. Wouldn't it be more rational to let this play out a little bit, let MMs do their thing before buying again. I don't believe in timing the market but I think this is way more shady than I'm comfortable with.

Probably that is the smartest option. I got a little ahead of myself yesterday because i had a bunch of profits burning a hole in my pocket and bought in at the mid 700s. I'm slowing down now and limiting myself to 10 shares a day max. ​

 

[StealthP3D]

Forgive the utterly moronic noob question, but.......why are the bid/ask figures often well above SP when getting TSLA quotes on Yahoo? Is the bid/ask data simply delayed far more than the SP? Seems silly to even provide this info in the quote if there's that much disconnect.

The current share price is the last completed trade. It's not unusual for the bid and the ask to rise above that without a trade occurring.

That said, on a highly liquid stock like Tesla it would be unusual for that condition to exist for long. So you are probably seeing the effects of more delay in the share price report vs. the bid/ask reports.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Someone feel free to chime if they believe differently or have more knowledge than me on this subject, but when S&P inclusion happens there will be a pretty big inflow of money from institutional funds. Who knows where the price lands after that event, but my main question is "After S&P inclusion happens, the day traders, MM's, option players, Max pain days on option Fridays, bears & shorts, etc.. would have drastically less impact on the stock price/action at that point, correct?

I would have to imagine that such blatant manipulation wouldn't go unnoticed on stock/company in the S&P and that the S&P board itself would take notice.

 

[EinSV]

Right. It think shorts are implementing more of scorched earth sort of strategy. They are attempting to sell high and cover low. That does not appear to be their game. Rather they are trying to destroy the floor. The sell low and try to bust the Overton windows down to zero. There is no rational price at which they will cover. The objective is to destroy Tesla, not to turn a quick trading profit. They are attempting to normalize the unthinkable.

Meanwhile, it was long thought that short interest hovered at about $10B. Over the past few months that seems to have spiked to about $20B.

 

[KarenRei]

It's not so much a financial wound. It just feels like for this last week we've been in a game played by someone else.

And to that I say, "game on".

So long as one's long-term hypothesis is accurate, and is invested in the long-term, volatility is not just tolerable, but outright exploitable.

You only get in trouble if your hypothesis is wrong or you don't give it enough time to play out.

 

[KarenRei]

Can we just agree that:

• It's inaccurate that the factory would be shut down in Q2/Q3 - and quite to the contrary, it's supposed to reopen on Monday
• That the quote was in response to a question from a person who had a car scheduled for delivery in Q2, wondering if it might end up pushed back to Q3, and they got a vague sort of "maybe-but-we'll-try-not-to" response

.... and then leave it at that? Erroneous information circulates accidentally. Nobody here is deliberately trying to push bad info.

 

[dl003]

And to that I say, "game on".

So long as one's long-term hypothesis is accurate, and is invested in the long-term, volatility is not just tolerable, but outright exploitable.

You only get in trouble if your hypothesis is wrong or you don't give it enough time to play out.

speaking of exploitable. I ought to skip over your comments as your option gains give me major FOMO.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I would have to imagine that such blatant manipulation wouldn't go unnoticed on stock/company in the S&P and that the S&P board itself would take notice.

What would they do? Write a complaint to the SEC? Shortzes will exit before S&P 500 inclusion. That will be a 5 day crash out for the ages.

Cheers!

 

[AquaMan]

Personally I'll need to see it stabilize before I get long again. And I definitely will.

That's what I said yesterday. It feels bottomey now, and I'm back in.

 

[KarenRei]

FEAR

 

[juanmedina]

Today we had some elementary school kids visiting where I work and we happened to get a tornado warning so they had to come inside our office because is a designed safety zone. Anyway someone told them that I had a Tesla and they started to ask me questions about my model 3 and then asking questions about the cyber truck etc etc. Tesla's future is brighter than you think...I live in South Carolina we don't have many Teslas around here.

 

[humbaba]

Meanwhile, it was long thought that short interest hovered at about $10B. Over the past few months that seems to have spiked to about $20B.

The Jan 15 date was the highest at $12.9B -- its got a long ways to go to get to $20B. I expect it has increased, but I don't expect the Jan 31 to be above $15B. If shares shorted held steady it would be $16.2B, but that metric has been dropping.

edit: its been dropping 1MM to 2MM every two weeks for the last few months. If that held from 15 Jan to 31 Jan it would be $14.9B to $15.5B so maybe I'm wrong about $15B being broken at end of January. However, I expect the steepness of the more recent rise to have accelerated the net covering.

 

[Cupidchild]

Everyone? Are you saying someone who sold at $950 wasn't able to time the market?

We need to relax on this "buy now, buy tomorrow, buy @ $1200" nonsense. We get it, you like Tesla.

Not a chance today. Shortzes don't want to give up the 'hammer' for tomorrow by re-invoking the "uptick rule", which they would do today if the SP fell below $734.70 - 10% = $661.23

I thought uptick rule is not enforced any more?
What do you mean shortzes not wanting give up hammer? You expecting Hammer candle tomorrow? Which means its going to be Bullish and move its way back up on Monday. And also on Hammer, wouldn't shorts get out of their position?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Meanwhile, it was long thought that short interest hovered at about $10B. Over the past few months that seems to have spiked to about $20B.

Indeed, the most rational explanation is that small fish have been eaten up by the biggest fish in the pond, and all that's left short now is certain MMs like UBS and MorganStanley and certain hedge funds like Citron Reseach dipping a toe back in at $900. Its the MMs and their trillion$ in Federal Reserve TARP funding, along with the Maddoff expemption, that make this an unreasonable short.

 

[jbcarioca]

...
Cognitive Dissonance
In the field of psychology, cognitive dissonance is the experience of psychological stress that occurs when a person holds two or more contradictory beliefs, ideas, values, or participates in an action that goes against one of these three. According to this theory, when two actions or ideas are not psychologically consistent with each other, people will do all in their power to change them until they become consistent. The discomfort is triggered by the person's belief clashing with new information perceived, wherein they will try to find a way to resolve the contradiction to reduce their discomfort.

...​

The classic examples are the US idea that both States and the federal Government are sovereign
and the many religions that have multi-theistic beliefs coinciding with an insistence on monotheism.

Which is to say that Cognitive Dissonance does not necessitate a resolution. The human mind is capable of inventing such while flatly insisting there is nota conflict at all.

Obviously investors are better off not permitting such devices to enter into their investment decisions.

 

[jhm]

While I agree with you I can't help but think that Andrew Left may have gotten ~20% to ~25% profit (depending on timing) off of triggering this fall. He probably bought shares when he closed his initial short -- and if not then presumably when it was ~$200. Selling those as part of his new short would have given more ammunition to help drive the price down while taking a profit. I do not believe he is in the "hate Tesla" camp, I think he simply lacks any morals or ethics and saw an opportunity he was able to capitalize on.

Of course, I could be wrong and maybe he hasn't covered thinking that the stock could be manipulated lower (and there is always Friday where the uptick rule won't be in effect).

But I do think there are those who successfully manipulate the stock to profit off of short trading.

Right, Andrew Left seems to be a more conventional profit oriented trader. A bit of a maverick among the hoards of orcs.

 

[MartinAustin]

This early investor on CNBC that sold his shares in 2013 just said Tesla is way overvalued because they were guiding 380,000-420,000 and they only reached 360k....nobody corrected him.

If you sold your shares in 2013 the only thing you should say is there were doubts that the company would survive as early as last year, now it feels like we are past that so sky’s the limit for them. Don’t come on and trash talk with lies.

Saw that. They only brought the guy on because he said he would trash the stock number.

Why don't they bring anyone on that actually analyzes the company? Gali or RobM come to mind