Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[winfield100]

Yes! Good prospects as an investment.
I fully expect the same level of volatility as TSLA from the start.

I will not be selling any of TSLA to get into Starlink.
Somewhere down the line, I hope there is a "Musk Enterprises Mutual Fund"

PS: Taking any future posts on this to the Starlink IPO thread...

Starlink IPO

@KevinR
Perhaps Cathy Woods ARK can create such a fund?
Anyone want to start lobbying?

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

OK EM did have a Strawberry Fields For Ever Tweet a week or so ago.

That's pretty tenuous and exactly the kind of thing Musk would do.

 

[bhtooefr]

That is not the best comparison (AWD two-motor Taycan vs. RWD single-motor Model 3). At least I assume it was the single motor Model 3 since it called it the "Long Range" without identifying it as AWD or Performance.

Their range graphs do specify "Long Rang Heckantrieb", so it is single-motor RWD. (Also would've been a US-spec car that they privately imported (and reviewed, IIRC) before the European Model 3 was launched, I believe, as I don't believe LR RWD was ever officially sold in Europe. That also means that they won't have any of the latest control logic updates reflected, unless they re-tested that car.)

 

[Unpilot]

Any news about China GF...did it open?

 

[StealthP3D]

Well, I could see 60-80 K deliveries for several reasons.

N Korea declares war.

That would be somewhat scary because China could join in which would be WWIII. In this scenario, Tesla sales would probably soar since gas supplies could be disrupted by refinery attacks. Also, people buying their dream car before "the end of the world".

Iran declares war.

No effect on Tesla sales.

Tsunami takes out California.

A Tsunami on Tesla "ground zero", assuming it didn't hit Fremont, would cause Tesla sales to soar, especially the more expensive S & X models. There would be massive insurance payouts to survivors or families of survivors for all the totaled Teslas. I've heard everyone who lives by the ocean in California has at least one Tesla. Also, Californians are genetically predisposed to prefer Tesla's so even if entire families were taken out their surviving relatives, even if they had relocated to other regions, would get the insurance money and buy new Teslas.

Spanish Flu returns.

True, this would be bad for Tesla sales. Less world population = less Tesla sales.

Martian Invasion.

Tesla sales would absolutely soar! People around the globe would want to signal to the aliens they liked Elon Musk and therefore were "worthy".

/s

 

[SageBrush]

Model 3 did 332 miles, Taycan 314 miles

kim

 

[FrankSG]

I thought the point of Tesla is push other auto OEMs to switch to BEVs. Because Tesla alone can not switch the entire globe to the sustainable production and consumption of energy.

Don't underestimate Elon Musk. He will transition the entire world over to EVs if the legacy automakers don't.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

There was another test done by nextmove in Germany which supports that thesis: at 94mph peak/80mph average on the Autobahn, Taycan against Model 3, starting with a full battery and completely draining it. Model 3 did 332 miles, Taycan 314 miles. That is only a 6% difference.

View attachment 509496

Thats km, not miles...

 

[JustMe]

She’s been getting trashed on for her poor Tesla take last week. She’s trying to calm her DM’s and emails down. Her husband has owned that Tesla for a while though

Dan Telvock on Twitter

she’s still retweeting this idiot’s attempt to storm the beaches of GigaBuffalo.

Perhaps my tweet helped her to reassess her life choices... Scott on Twitter

 

[Sparky4life]

Just started reading it. In addition to being informative, it is also hilarious! Thank you for the recommendation

The author is actually Lee Eisenberg

 

[Dare]

She’s been getting trashed on for her poor Tesla take last week. She’s trying to calm her DM’s and emails down. Her husband has owned that Tesla for a while though

Dan Telvock on Twitter

she’s still retweeting this idiot’s attempt to storm the beaches of GigaBuffalo.

I see now that she was trashing the Cybertruck a couple of days ago. Dismissing it as a “ridiculous product that lowers the bar”. Interesting take on a product that hasn’t been released yet and, oh by the way - it has enormous demand. Very strange.

 

[Dare]

Perhaps my tweet helped her to reassess her life choices... Scott on Twitter

Haha I read that just a few minutes before you posted. That was a good one.

 

[jerry33]

Why would a Retail Investor have or need a personal Broker when TD Waterhouse and the like offer electronic buy/sell transactions you can complete yourself your $9/trade?

If you have enough assets with them, you get an "advisor". There's not any real difference except they don't make the trade for you.

 

[jerry33]

It was and still is awesome to see so many Teslas. Especially in Vancouver the Tesla density seems to be really high. We spend two minutes on a bridge in Stanley Park and counted three Model 3 and two X’s within those 120 secs. We saw two Model 3 in Tofino on Vancouver Island, range and winter temperature is no problem it seems.

The coldest winter days in Vancouver are warmer than the coldest winter days in Texas, and Vancouver does not get the violent weather that Seattle does because it's protected by Vancouver Island.

 

[Bobfitz1]

Its time for tesla to make more GF beyond just Berlin, really should push for GF with solar and battery production lines on other continents as well.

GF's will get built where there is demand for the products. The other continents are: Africa, Antarctica, Australia and South America. Australia doesn't have a large enough population to support a primarily EV GF. They might one year get so on board with solar it makes sense to build a GF there for PV and battery storage. NA should get a second for Cyber Truck. China a second after that and Europe a second if the ICE makers still can't get traction in 3 - 5 more years.

 

[Alphacrux]

WSJ Subscription required:
The Agony of the Tesla Bears: $8.4 Billion of Losses in Five Weeks

Summary:

• Fred Lande closed his short position at a loss: "Someone could go buy a brand new Toyota Camry with the loss that I took,” said Mr. Lande, who frequently trades for his personal account and runs a chat room for retail stock traders.
• “Oh damn, I got my butt kicked,” was the thinking, said Robert Majteles, a private investor who rode Tesla’s swings up and down for years before being forced to close out his bearish position last week. “It’s the biggest set of losses that I’ve ever taken in 20 years.”
• Tesla has become one of the most popular stocks to trade ever.
• "Bears point to how Tesla has never posted an annual profit and has previously missed numerous financial and production targets. They note Mr. Musk’s penchant for overstatement, including an infamous 2018 episode in which he claimed to have lined up funding for a buyout, leading to a Securities and Exchange Commission settlement that temporarily stripped him of his chairmanship. They say other car companies will likely catch up to Tesla’s strides in electric vehicles"
• "Mr. Chanos, who said Tesla’s recent profits can be attributed to its sales of tax credits, rather than earnings from car sales, said he won’t end his short positions despite recent deep losses. People close to the matter said his bearish Tesla position amounts to about 2% of his firm’s portfolio."
• "Other funds burned by Tesla’s rally include Lakewood Capital Management and David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital, The Wall Street Journal has reported."
• "Amy Wu Silverman, a managing director at RBC Capital Markets who recommends derivatives trades to clients, said she has been fielding calls from clients trying to predict how high the stock might go. “There’s obviously a cult identity around” the company, Ms. Wu Silverman said. She has personally bought bearish put options on the stock, contracts that have sunk in value as the stock has continued its climb. “Tesla is my widowmaker,” she said.

Yes, thank heaven that naked short selling was banned:

 

[Words of HABIT]

If you have enough assets with them, you get an "advisor". There's not any real difference except they don't make the trade for you.

Broker, Advisor, call them what you may. My questions remains. Why would Retail Investors want or need them?

 

[S3XY]

Actually, 60-80k deliveries sounds very reasonable, are they really predicting +25 growth over 62k deliveries in Q1'2019?

While 60k sounds a bit pessimistic, I could live with 80k deliveries. Let's make this the new baseline for our Q1 expectations?

Spoiler

Just kidding!

My real baseline expectations is 90k-95k deliveries - similar to Q3, but still profitable - enough for S&P 500 inclusion.

I'm a bit more optimistic: 60,087 - 80,092.

 

[jerry33]

Broker, Advisor, call them what you may. My questions remains. Why would Retail Investors want or need them?

You don't need an advisor but you get them anyway.

 

[Tachyon]

You don't need an advisor but you get them anyway.

I suppose it’s like in-laws
You don’t want them
You don’t need them
But you get them anyway