Making it potentially very close to my 62k Q3 estimate for model 3 deliveries.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Based on general consensus and personal bias and dubious research I am basically seeing 64k 3s produced as the expectation and anything above that a 'beat'.
I don't know how much higher deliveries will be than produced, but assume about 4-8,000
I don't know what to expect from SP in the immediate future
I don't know how much higher deliveries will be than produced, but assume about 4-8,000
I don't know what to expect from SP in the immediate future
Yep, going with the middle of their Dec Model 3 sales (25k and adding it in with the October and November numbers on their plugin scorecard I came up with: 61400 US Model 3 Deliveries for Q4
Their estimates also imply 16525 US Model S and X deliveries (Combined) for Q4.
Tesla Q4 2017 Vehicle Production and Deliveries announcement:
- was published on Jan 3
- 29,870 vehicles delivered
- 24,565 vehicles produced
Wow, Y/Y growth will be astonishing...easily more than 200% for production and there is a good chance deliveries will grow more than 200% as well.
- was published on Jan 3
- 29,870 vehicles delivered
- 24,565 vehicles produced
Wow, Y/Y growth will be astonishing...easily more than 200% for production and there is a good chance deliveries will grow more than 200% as well.
We won't get any information on cost from their imminent Q4 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries announcement. But I'm confident that they will deliver on cost reductions as the quarter was much more smooth than Q3. We'll know in early Feb I guess.
Yep. Which is why quarterly reports tend to be much bigger SP movers than deliveries.
tsunamiofhurt
Member
It was fun being one of the most pessimistic bulls for a time, but I've come around. I'm upping my M3 deliveries estimate (again) from 58.5k to 62.5k. Primary reasons are:
- Electrek report on 3k inventory was much lower than I expected.
- All of the anecdotal data re EOY push from last night
- Alphahat data for the week of 12/17 - 12/23 just came in and showed a HUGE week; similar to the last week of Q3. The model based on DC foot traffic shows M3 deliveries in the 60-65k range.
- Impact of home deliveries (which are not included in above)
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I think you meant production and deliveries doubling, 0r 100% improvement y-o-y.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
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Are Canadian deliveries included in their model? IIRC Canada is about 5% of sales, which at 60-65k would amount to an additional ~3k deliveries.
Are Canadian deliveries included in their model? IIRC Canada is about 5% of sales, which at 60-65k would amount to an additional ~3k deliveries.
To be clear, my own estimates are 201% growth in deliveries 263% growth in production.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Note that Electrek reported about unsold inventory of 3,300 Model 3's.
This is a new inventory condition that rarely happened before: due to build-to-order Tesla used to have close to zero unsold inventory.
Also note that "unsold inventory" != "vehicles in transit":
total_inventory cars = unsold + in-transit + loaners + service + test-drive cars
If it becomes even more obvious that Tesla will be able to pay off the March bonds, I would expect more shorts to cover soon. Possibility of near term bankwuptcy is still a factor in the stock price.
To be clear----doubling is 100%, not 200%.
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