Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mo City]

TSLA won't be "out of the woods" until COVID-19 starts receding. We really don't know the bottom just yet.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Tue, Mar 24, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

VWAP: $497.87
Volume: 22,904,900
Traded: $11,403,757,925.15 ($11.40 B)

Closing SP / VWAP: 101.53%
(TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP)​

FINRA "Short Exempt" / "Short Volume" = 0.78% (Pre-Market + Main Session Only)

Comment: "Strong Opening; Mirrors macros during the day; Up+Dn After-hrs"

 

[Ameliorate]

Hmm, lots here speculating we're headed back to the 300's or that the market is not done crashing.
Would that have to imply that the losses from business will be greater than the feds have pledged thus far?
If you were listening to Trump today much of the country should be open around Easter. It almost sounded like he's been listening to mr. Chamath Palihapitiya, that 2 hour conference linked earlier today was great! All they need to do is start testing for antibodies then open areas to people with the antibodies and people not infected. I'm very happy they're focusing on testing(They just need to get on the antibody tests). Also Trump specifically said this was the largest bailout for "main street" in history, and I hope he keeps his word because that's where it should be going.

I think there's been a monumental change from just a week ago.
The outlook was grim with Italy peaking and the US was not testing in meaningful quantities. A repeat of Italy looked almost likely, with a lockdown for an undefined amount of time. With no idea what the feds were going to do to help. There was a Lot to worry about.

This week we're seeing massive testing which is the #1 factor in reopening business and slowing the spread. We're seeing hints of large portions of the country re-opening for business. Feds throwing unlimited amounts of money at the problem. Does this cause inflation? sure, Chamath seemed to be all for it, he had his reasons which I will not try to recall as to misspeak his thoughts. Was along the lines of the USD being the global standard while the US and China will come out of this with the largest economies by far.

We have a better understanding of course of treatment, we have companies pitching in and even assistance from other countries.
We know the numbers are going to grow, they always were going to. But to what degree and how rapidly was much more of a question last week than it is now that it looks like it's being taken seriously by the government.
I certainly feel a lot better about the outlook today than I did a week ago.

All of you saying it'll get worse, yes that's known and has been known. That was probably priced in to a large degree at the lows.
If you were listening to my earlier posts I had predicted the influx of testing that has been done over this weekend and the large jump in cases would skew the "curve" and scare some people. Hey it dropped Monday, people got over it because ultimately testing is good. Now, they should be catching up and not testing 2-3 days worth of backlog at a time, the "curve" will look much more positive. Obviously the Fed's played the majority role in today's gap up.
I saw a huge amount of good lately.

That said after selling my F puts yesterday at EOD and going all in calls BAC SPX(+450% today) with my short term holdings for the stimulus package I'll probably sell most of them tomorrow and expect a dip again Thursday on the unemployment numbers. It'll be rocky going forward but I'm not holding out for Tesla to hit 3XX's again, I have what I want in my long term holdings from 415ish.

I saw a lot of positives lately and will continue to trade as the situation changes. People want a rally as you can tell by the huge swings but some specific things need to happen for that to occur. I was in this camp of keeping my hedge until next week sometime when the US gets hit hard, but I think the market got to that point ahead of the actual event. Can't help but thinking the very high price of options (LEAPS) are a better indicator of the future than the current share prices. If the market wasn't expecting a good outlook I'm not sure people would be paying anywhere near this much for LEAPS.

If you buy into the theory of hedge funds causing the extreme volatility via huge leverage, if we can trade up or flat for a few days and stop the massive margin calls there should be a lot more stability going forward.

"The cure can't be worse than the problem" - Trump (I'm no fanatic, I just added this quote because it's important that he understands this)

I'm not saying get rid of your hedge or whatever but if you're holding out for low 300's, I just don't have the confidence we'll see it, good luck though would sure be lucky to add anything more at those prices.

 

[Pezpunk]

TSLA won't be "out of the woods" until COVID-19 starts receding. We really don't know the bottom just yet.

just like there was absolutely no way it’d close over $500 today?

 

[Gifford 3]

The bottom is likely between $300 to $350.

 

[Artful Dodger]

just like there was absolutely no wa it’d close over $500 today?

I know the answer, but this is a rollercoaster, not a straight line ride.

I'm not a trader, but it's almost irresistible now. No way it closes at 500 today.

Fun Fact:
Your gut was actually much closer to the actual VWAP of $501.86 from 10:29 EDT (when u posted) than to the Closing SP at $505.00

So on those 14.50 M shares, you only underestimated TSLA trades by $27.1 Million bucks. Not bad!

Of course, After-hrs, the VWAP was up to $517.83 on 557K shares, finishing at $509.98

TL;dr Picking the short-term price movement is HARD / Game of Chance.

CH33RS!

 

[wipster]

I'm positive that we will see another big round of brick and mortar store bankruptcies. Not only due to lost business, but customers getting used to online shopping/delivery and just forgetting to go back. These big macro events really accelerate trends that were already occurring. I hope Kathy Woods is right about the EV shift also benefiting. Well, at least Tesla will benefit.

OT (maybe a lot)
I agree that we'll probably see an even larger increase in on-line ordering, which is good in some ways (such as convenience) but bad in a lot of others, specifically the HUGE increase in the amount of cardboard, where unfortunately I'm seeing less and less of it recycled. This is especially distressing in my town where we have curbside recycling, yet I continue to see garbage cans overflowing with cardboard. And it's not just recycling. There needs to be an incentive-driven way to encourage reuse of cardboard. Personally I'd like to see Amazon, Walmart, and all other major shippers come up with a way of reimbursing individuals or small businesses who turn their custom-made boxes back into them for reusing on other shipments. There has got to be a good feasible method to reduce one time use of cardboard. Maybe like what used to happen with pop bottles... Oregon in particular had a great method of collecting them for reuse, not just recycling.

OK, off my rant, but I think you all know what I mean about this unintended consequence of ordering on-line.

 

[tinm]

The bottom is likely between $300 to $350.

Alas, I suspect we’ll see lower, due to unprecedented macro turbulence. We’re still just in the opening scenes of this movie, imho.

 

[Thekiwi]

Good to see Tesla doing well today. I think anyone who bought in below $400 will do very well long term, but there will undoubtedly be many more bumpy days ahead of us.

Worth noting that the broad market earnings multiple is still not reflecting that of a recession by historical standards (ie the broad market is expensive if you think we are definitely heading into a considerable recession). The fact we fell from very high recent all time highs makes it seem like we have fallen by a lot, which is true we have, but we are nowhere near the valuation multiple one would expect during a large economic contraction. Something to keep in mind.

Anyone have any clue how an extra $6 Billion in US government debt is going to impact the economy in the medium and long term?

 

[CyberDutchie]

Kind of. I want to buy several thousand more shares under $300. And the Puts I bought as a hedge are red now. But I think today was a blip over stimulus package, and the dream that this will be over in a week. It is not possible for the shutdown to last less than another month, probably two months, and maybe three. I can wait....

The spike today had more to do with the six trillion stimulus package announced today then with the wishful thinking of back to normal by Eastern from the President. I don’t think many investors will take him serious on that.

 

[StealthP3D]

Well well well. Some guy sold me his/her tesla shares at 398 just two days back.. reacting to the plant closure news.

On Friday I bought from someone even more messed up. They were willing to sell me their TSLA shares for only $365. But that's nothing! About half an hour later another person sold me theirs for only $356!

If you've seen the movie "Idiocracy" then you will know what I'm talking about when I say I think they must have been from the future.

 

[Causalien]

Heh. Some major bank failed in physical gold delivery. Looks like the rehypothecation unwind is happening.
Also seeing first of the MBS failures.... Are we going to have a coronavirus crisis on top of the MBS crisis like 2008?

Still advocating waiting to see how far the dominos fall. Also should be going through all your stock holdings and do a simple cash burn assesment to see how long they can hold out. Anything less than 3 months should be sold. Also, any company with "good will" + "Intangibles" >= Shareholder equity should be sold as in recession situation those things are completely discarded when valuing a company. If they manage to survive this, they will eventually also use this chance to write them down.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I have a feeling that all of these posters here waiting for 300 or lower are going to be grumbling quite a bit in a month or two. We'll see how the rest of this week shapes up, especially tomorrow if Tesla's stock strength continues(it was up noticeably up in after hours). Just to be clear, I dont think the market has bottomed or won't retest the lows. I just don't think that Tesla will go below 300 even if the macros drop 20% from close today. I do wonder if the strength in the stock is due to the rumors of China planning stimulus for their economy and in particular their auto sector and how that would relate to Tesla. I also think that given the reports of Giga 3 construction going into overdrive...that come Q3, Tesla would be back to much higher production total(Giga 3 and Fremont combined) than Q4 2019. As for demand, not worried about that at all. Bad Q2 is already being factored in and I would put money on most of the people cancelling their orders will be first in line once the worst of this passes, probably sometime in mid Q2.

 

[S3XY]

Hmm, lots here speculating we're headed back to the 300's or that the market is not done crashing.
Would that have to imply that the losses from business will be greater than the feds have pledged thus far?
If you were listening to Trump today much of the country should be open around Easter. It almost sounded like he's been listening to mr. Chamath Palihapitiya, that 2 hour conference linked earlier today was great! All they need to do is start testing for antibodies then open areas to people with the antibodies and people not infected. I'm very happy they're focusing on testing(They just need to get on the antibody tests). Also Trump specifically said this was the largest bailout for "main street" in history, and I hope he keeps his word because that's where it should be going.

I think there's been a monumental change from just a week ago.
The outlook was grim with Italy peaking and the US was not testing in meaningful quantities. A repeat of Italy looked almost likely, with a lockdown for an undefined amount of time. With no idea what the feds were going to do to help. There was a Lot to worry about.

This week we're seeing massive testing which is the #1 factor in reopening business and slowing the spread. We're seeing hints of large portions of the country re-opening for business. Feds throwing unlimited amounts of money at the problem. Does this cause inflation? sure, Chamath seemed to be all for it, he had his reasons which I will not try to recall as to misspeak his thoughts. Was along the lines of the USD being the global standard while the US and China will come out of this with the largest economies by far.

We have a better understanding of course of treatment, we have companies pitching in and even assistance from other countries.
We know the numbers are going to grow, they always were going to. But to what degree and how rapidly was much more of a question last week than it is now that it looks like it's being taken seriously by the government.
I certainly feel a lot better about the outlook today than I did a week ago.

All of you saying it'll get worse, yes that's known and has been known. That was probably priced in to a large degree at the lows.
If you were listening to my earlier posts I had predicted the influx of testing that has been done over this weekend and the large jump in cases would skew the "curve" and scare some people. Hey it dropped Monday, people got over it because ultimately testing is good. Now, they should be catching up and not testing 2-3 days worth of backlog at a time, the "curve" will look much more positive. Obviously the Fed's played the majority role in today's gap up.
I saw a huge amount of good lately.

That said after selling my F puts yesterday at EOD and going all in calls BAC SPX(+450% today) with my short term holdings for the stimulus package I'll probably sell most of them tomorrow and expect a dip again Thursday on the unemployment numbers. It'll be rocky going forward but I'm not holding out for Tesla to hit 3XX's again, I have what I want in my long term holdings from 415ish.

I saw a lot of positives lately and will continue to trade as the situation changes. People want a rally as you can tell by the huge swings but some specific things need to happen for that to occur. I was in this camp of keeping my hedge until next week sometime when the US gets hit hard, but I think the market got to that point ahead of the actual event. Can't help but thinking the very high price of options (LEAPS) are a better indicator of the future than the current share prices. If the market wasn't expecting a good outlook I'm not sure people would be paying anywhere near this much for LEAPS.

If you buy into the theory of hedge funds causing the extreme volatility via huge leverage, if we can trade up or flat for a few days and stop the massive margin calls there should be a lot more stability going forward.

"The cure can't be worse than the problem" - Trump (I'm no fanatic, I just added this quote because it's important that he understands this)

I'm not saying get rid of your hedge or whatever but if you're holding out for low 300's, I just don't have the confidence we'll see it, good luck though would sure be lucky to add anything more at those prices.

You lost me at "Trump specifically said".

 

[capster]

750? That was a fair price a month ago (we had the capital raise at that price). But the world has changed a lot since then. After buying back half my shares at 358 I was looking for a good place to add more, but this is not that level.

We're at 528 in after market now, will we be at 600 at the end of the week? That would imply hardly anything has changed. But we are just starting to feel the pain.

First there's CV. New York will be bad, really bad in 1-2 weeks time. And there are plenty of other states that are climbing fast and many of them have not taken strict measures to stop the spread. This will go on for months. Trump wants it to be over by Easter, but if he relaxes the rules the only thing that will be over is his presidency.

And then we haven't even started feeling much of the economic pain yet. It is going to be a long tail. The unemployment report will be the first ominous sign, but there are many more to come. Consumer confidence will take a big hit. Supply lines will be down or interrupted for a long time. China is only back to 60-70% of capacity, Europe's factories are compromised and India is now shutting down completely for weeks.

Throwing trillions at it will not help much. The problem is not that people don't have enough money, but that they do not feel like spending it (or even have places to spend it). And for the millions who lose their jobs, what good are $1200 checks which will last a week or two?

Tesla is well prepared to weather the storm and take off when the tide turns, but it will not turn for quite a while.

Today's 11% rise of the Dow, the biggest since 1933, shows the market is too eager and oblivious to all of this. It might be in for a nasty surprise. So I will be keeping my powder dry and be on the lookout for real capitulation.

Stay healthy.

Could be.

Or, could be some cocktail of drugs, e.g. hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin (not that I would know, just read about them in the paper), brings the lethality down to where the ramped supply of ventilators is sufficient to allow relaxation of the movement restrictions. Could happen any day.

Combine that with better protocols (masks, social distance, temperature checks, ...) in businesses and manufacturing and things can start to look up PDQ.

Or, could be things go to hell in a hand basket and the stock markets are shut down till things suddenly look up and the price of TSLA is instantly in orbit.

Or, something else.

I’m just continuing to hold my TSLA. Simple. Quite safe, IMHO. Like to be one of the people that has Elon’s and Tesla’s backs.

I’m not oblivious to the possibility of market opportunities, but have to say I haven’t much appetite for capitalizing on the misery of others.

BTW, just skimming this forum these days — other things more on my mind.

 

[S3XY]

Is it me or has the absence of moderators lead to better self editing in this thread? Or maybe KarenRei and FC really were the problem.

 

[Mo City]

Fun Fact:
Your gut was actually much closer to the actual VWAP of $501.86 from 10:29 EDT (when u posted) than to the Closing SP at $505.00

So on those 14.50 M shares, you only underestimated TSLA trades by $27.1 Million bucks. Not bad!

Of course, After-hrs, the VWAP was up to $517.83 on 557K shares, finishing at $509.98

TL;dr Picking the short-term price movement is HARD / Game of Chance.

CH33RS!

Your bottom line is THE bottom line.

Time to strap in and ride this thing out. Go long and stay long!

 

[MC3OZ]

Is it me or has the absence of moderators lead to better self editing in this thread? Or maybe KarenRei and FC really were the problem.

We possibly should have lifted our game before they left...

I'm assuming general frustration tipped the mods over the edge.

I'm deliberately posting less, so maybe I was the problem

 

[Tim S]

Anyone have any clue how an extra $6 Billion in US government debt is going to impact the economy in the medium and long term?

Trillion?

 

[Unpilot]

Stock pickers and tea readers...pfttt.

I have picked one stock in my entire life.
One that was so bright and pure even a simpleton like me could see it's value.

What company has ever really MOVED you?

What CEO has brought you to tears watching them speak....Bill Gates?

Which company has consistently improved a product you already own.... Apple?

What company is aligned with the values of clean energy...sustainability?

I don't play the market game....I pick a winner.