Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

So obviously there is still some inventory out there. Here we are in a new quarter (almost). Do you think Tesla will start to offer any goodies on some of the stragglers or would they just sit on them and let “nature take its course”. I’m thinking things like maybe unlimited supercharging, maybe upgrade rims and tires etc. I’m not sure it would benefit them. But is there some reason they would want these gone quicker? Can’t really see cash flow being a reason but I’m not in the know on the accounting side of a company like Tesla.

IMO what was noticeable this end of quarter was no sudden price drops, no push incentives like free supercharging, no sudden closure of stores etc, no drastic staff lay offs, some evidence of continuing deliveries.

When changes were made there were a fairly obvious response to situations triggered by Coronavirus..

My take - it was tracking to be a fairly good quarter before CV. - CV has had an impact they may have some inventory, but they also can't make any new cars. The cash flow push is before end of quarter...

Plenty of time in Q2 to deliver the existing inventory and any new cars they can make, production is likely to be a bigger problem than demand, and they can slow production if necessary if demand is slow.

IMO a likely Q2 strategy is maximise Model Y production.

A good Q3 strategy would be start making Plaid Model S

BY Q4 they hopefully don't need a strategy..

 

[hacer]

...
2- 3% increase in daily fuel consumption
About 0.5 million barrels per day increase in fuel consumption

rest of info here - The Safer Affordable Fuel Efficient (SAFE) Destruction Of Planet Earth (DOPE) Vehicles Proposed Rule for Model Years 2021-2026 | US EPA

FTFY

 

[RobStark]

BY Q4 they hopefully don't need a strategy..

There is a good chance we get hit by a 2nd wave of coronavirus in Q4 2020.

 

[StealthP3D]

There is a good chance we get hit by a 2nd wave of coronavirus in Q4 2020.

CV will be around until well after they develop a vaccine for it. But it's very unlikely to be shutting the economy down during a second appearance.

 

[RobStark]

CV will be around until well after they develop a vaccine for it. But it's very unlikely to be shutting the economy down during a second appearance.

Maybe maybe not.

We don't know.

We should be better prepared but it might be more deadly second time around.

If it does come it will cause panic.

Panic shopping and panic non-car shopping.

 

[Papafox]

Where did this 97,000 factset consensus come from anyways? I don't think even the bulls are expecting numbers this high at this point. Is this just a bait to predict a crazy high number, then spread FUD that Tesla did not meet expectations?

I saw the 97,000 deliveries number by Factset yesterday in this article on nasdaq.com

Link to article about Adam Jonas calling for Q1 TSLA deliveries that are below FactSet numbers

I would agree that 97,000 is an unrealistic number, given the disruption in Tesla's deliveries in the final 2 week of the quarter. Let's hope that FactSet comes up with realistic numbers before the P&D Report comes out.

 

[NicoV]

Another problem looming at the ICO car terminal in Zeebrugge: Due to lack of demand, the car terminal is filling up (with cars from Asian car manufacturers). They have parking space for 100K cars, with 10K still available, but 30K still on the way to Zeebrugge. So they need to find emergency parking space for those unsold cars until the sales pick up. https://www.tijd.be/ondernemen/auto/zeebrugge-zit-op-kolossale-berg-auto-s/10217990.html

 

[MC3OZ]

I saw the 97,000 deliveries number by Factset yesterday in this article on nasdaq.com

Link to article about Adam Jonas calling for Q1 TSLA deliveries that are below FactSet numbers

I would agree that 97,000 is an unrealistic number, given the disruption in Tesla's deliveries in the final 2 week of the quarter. Let's hope that FactSet comes up with realistic numbers before the P&D Report comes out.

Rob's numbers production 98,000-103,000, Deliveries 85,000-91,000
Mid points Production 101,000 Deliveries 88,000

Edit:: Troy has 83,000 in the past Troy has typically been slightly lower than the actual deliveries from memory.

IMO Rob or Troy are closer than Gali...

 

[adiggs]

Another problem looming at the ICO car terminal in Zeebrugge: Due to lack of demand, the car terminal is filling up (with cars from Asian car manufacturers). They have parking space for 100K cars, with 10K still available, but 30K still on the way to Zeebrugge. So they need to find emergency parking space for those unsold cars until the sales pick up. Zeebrugge zit op kolossale berg auto's

And keep working room for Tesla to continue delivering and moving cars out

 

[Paracelsus]

This is brilliant IMO...........but won't happen in the US or it would likely push the last Ford Shareholders to sell even under $5.00 a share

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

"German listed companies will be asked to suspend dividend payments to qualify for assistance designed to ease the impact of the coronavirus crisis.

The government will be able to set conditions on dividends as part of an aid program involving loans and guarantees from state bank KfW and the goal is that credit does not end up being disbursed to shareholders, an Economy Ministry spokesman said at a regular news conference in Berlin. He confirmed an earlier Bloomberg News report. The KfW declined to comment.

Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government on Friday secured final parliamentary approval for a package of measures totaling more than 750 billion euros ($827 billion) to address the economic fallout from the virus. On top of that, the KfW has 500 billion euros available to boost the liquidity of companies struggling with a collapse in demand."

 

[Prunesquallor]

This is brilliant IMO...........but won't happen in the US or it would likely push the last Ford Shareholders to sell even under $5.00 a share

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

"German listed companies will be asked to suspend dividend payments to qualify for assistance designed to ease the impact of the coronavirus crisis.

The government will be able to set conditions on dividends as part of an aid program involving loans and guarantees from state bank KfW and the goal is that credit does not end up being disbursed to shareholders, an Economy Ministry spokesman said at a regular news conference in Berlin. He confirmed an earlier Bloomberg News report. The KfW declined to comment.

Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government on Friday secured final parliamentary approval for a package of measures totaling more than 750 billion euros ($827 billion) to address the economic fallout from the virus. On top of that, the KfW has 500 billion euros available to boost the liquidity of companies struggling with a collapse in demand."

If I read this right, it’s there in the CARES Act:
https://www.lw.com/thoughtLeadershi...er-Businesses-Under-Title-IV-of-the-CARES-Act

"The Treasury Department can only provide a loan or loan guarantee to a business applicant under one of the industry-specific programs if such applicant meets all of the following requirements (as determined by the Secretary of the Treasury):
...
• Duration of the loan or loan guarantee is as short as possible, with a maximum term of five years
• No share buybacks by the applicant or any of its affiliates until 12 months after the loan or loan guarantee is no longer outstanding (except pursuant to a previously existing contractual obligation)
• No dividend payments or other capital distributions with respect to common stock until 12 months after the loan or loan guarantee is no longer outstanding
..."

Also here:
CARES Act: Stock Buyback/Distribution Restriction | Much Shelist, P.C.

"Businesses that borrow money under the CARES Act cannot buy back company stock (unless required pursuant to a pre-existing contract), pay dividends, or make other capital distributions. Additionally, until September 30, 2020, borrowers must maintain their employment level as of March 24, 2020, to the extent practicable, and may not reduce their workforce by more than 10 percent from the March 24 level."

tl;dr: If Ford wants a five-year loan, no layoffs for six months and no dividends for six years.

 

[Buckminster]

Death knell of the FCEV:

BMW hops on Toyota’s hydrogen bandwagon with fuel cell powertrain
Tanks, FC and motor drive electronics are all enormous.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla Model Y teardown first impression by Sandy Munro | Teslarati.com

Munro said his teardown would focus on four main components of the vehicle:

1. lithium-ion batteries
2. electric vehicle motors
3. inverter/converter system
4. wire harness

Cheers!

 

[Christine69420]

A Norwegian took his new Porsche Taycan on a road trip to Spain. It turned out to be quite challenging. I found this particulary interesting since I did the same trip last year in my Model X with no problems whatsoever.

From the article:

- The trip went smoothly from Oslo and through Denmark. But already in the north of Germany the problems began. There are simply very few charging options. Fortunately in the middle of Germany it is better before in France and Spain it is completely miserable. We have mostly run from outlet to outlet, says Erik.

- This is my third Porsche and Taycan really does not disappoint. But I should have had 50 percent longer range.

- To be perfectly honest, I'm very disappointed with Porsche's "Charging Planner". The system provides little predictability because it only reports a charging stop. The car says nothing about what the charging station is or what charging speed you can expect. As you drive into the charging station, the information about how long you will be there will also disappear. This makes it very difficult to plan your trip.

After over 4,000 kilometers, Erik and the gang are now corona-fixed in Malaga. To Broom, Erik is aware that he does not recommend going long-distance in Europe by electric car, unless you own a Tesla.

- Tesla has a completely different and much better charging network. For the rest of us, I recommend no one to embark on a similar tour, as the situation with the charging network is now.

Erik adds that he is not very much looking forward to the return trip, and the charging challenges that follow.

- That's why we've actually challenged Porsche boss, Oliver Blum, to ask a Volkswagen / Porsche representative - to help drive the car back. They have not picked up the ball yet.


Source: Europatur i Porsche Taycan: - Dette anbefaler jeg ingen å gjøre!

 

[FrankSG]

I compiled a list of the top 50 largest TSLA investors, and wrote a blog post about it:

The Mechanisms That Fueled TSLA's Meteoric Q1'20 Rise

Although some parts of this blog will not be news to this community, because of @ReflexFunds 's excellent posts from a couple of months ago about delta hedging, there's still a bunch of interesting data about the top 50 TSLA investors.

 

[HG Wells]

I compiled a list of the top 50 largest TSLA investors, and wrote a blog post about it:

The Mechanisms That Fueled TSLA's Meteoric Q1'20 Rise

Although some parts of this blog will not be news to this community, because of @ReflexFunds 's excellent posts from a couple of months ago about delta hedging, there's still a bunch of interesting data about the top 50 TSLA investors.

UMM, I don't see my name on that list.

 

[junas]

I called local Tesla store yesterday and asked about availability of Model3. Partly because I'm still comparing between M3 & MY, and wanted to check M3 availability. Why I called exactly yesterday was to get some pieces of information to play Q1 P&D report.

Basic facts: There were 273 Model3 registrations (+89% YoY) in March despite COVID-19. It was 4th most sold vehicle in March in Finland. That is really major news locally because Finland is still very gas+diesel oriented country. State owns 50%+ share in major fossil-fuel players such as Fortum and Neste so there is very little motivation to push EVs. It seems people are finally starting to get it though. Even Finland has land border with Norway the adoption level and EV attitude is totally different.

The interesting part: According to Tesla salesman some dozens of customers cancelled or pushed their orders forward because of layoffs and various personal situations caused by COVID-19. They told me the inventory listed on their website doesn't include all available cars, but it includes all available trims/colors/interiors/etc. I didn't get the exact number of available cars, but I got the feeling they are not selling all of those during the next two weeks. I said I could visit the store next Friday to test drive and asked if that's too late to get one from the inventory. Of course, as every salesman would say, they said it's better to order now if one wants to be sure. They told me it's still probable to get one from inventory if I place order next Friday. They also mentioned they might be getting some more cars in the next weeks (no idea from where, maybe other EU countries? Asked this, but they didn't answer as expected).

Conclusion: Troy estimated there are possibly 7700 cancellations globally this quarter (7,8% of 98500). See the whole tweet here: Troy Teslike on Twitter. Compared to his estimate: If Finland has "dozens of" cancellations and 273 deliveries in March it could mean something like ~15% cancellations during the whole quarter taken into account smooth Jan+Feb. There are probably no postponed deliveries in Finland since all dealerships are still open and Tesla can transport cars to customers (traffic restrictions & fenced areas do not apply to businesses so far). My personal feeling is that numbers could be worse in Southern Europe and some areas of Central Europe compared to out-of-hat ~15% cancellation rate in Finland. I make this assumption based on the fact that most EU countries have stricter quarantine measures than Finland and their economies have also probably suffered more. It's also important to remember that 15% cancellations doesn't mean 15% reduction in deliveries, because there are always some customers in line even it's super quiet right now.

Whatever the case with cancellations I think Tesla will easily sell the inventory during Q2 as Fremont is closed. I decided to post this anyway becauce this could help others playing Q1 P&D. This info is from small market and only based on one phone call so take with a grain of salt as always.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Death knell of the FCEV:

BMW hops on Toyota’s hydrogen bandwagon with fuel cell powertrain
Tanks, FC and motor drive electronics are all enormous.

Transmission hump with a vengeance.

 

[Christine69420]

Tesla deliveries in Norway

Source: https://teslastats.no/

Q1: 1414 Teslas, 1168 were Model 3

Mars: 1133 Teslas, 997 were Model 3

 

[willow_hiller]

You may be right. All Elon wrote was "Logarithm graphs coming soon" which is vague. I was thinking of logarithmic scales

Looks like my intuition was right Elon Musk on Twitter