Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[VValleyEV]

I hope everyone has seen this article, link tweeted by EM:
Boom! Fossil Vehicle Sales Are Officially Now Decreasing In China, Europe, & USA — #CleanTechnica Report | CleanTechnica

 

[aronth5]

Super. I am guessing not market moving until EOY 2020. So, FSD is feature complete this year, but likely not approved by regulators or might be BETA until then, requiring human oversight.
On the other hand, this might be market moving in 2019 if drivers are able to experience FSD and see how close it is to completion.

Elon said that every intervention of AP is uploaded to Tesla and analysed, which seems to be a confirmation of what was previously a speculation.

That last point is curious from my personal perspective.

I take a sharp exit/series of turns during ski trips on Nav on AP. Used AP like 3-4 times there. Actually, I get a warning "high curvature detected". One time AP crossed the white line there and scared my wife, but other times drove like a champ.

But right after the merge to another highway the lane splits into 2 dif. highways. AP says "confirm lane change to follow the route" even though you don't need to change it as long as you take the right lane at the split. So, one time there it tried to take the wrong lane at the split and I intervened. The next time I drove there the AP took the correct lane. I was quite surprised. However, last weekend it tried to take the wrong lane again at the split and I intervened. Wondering how long it will take me to train the AP? Maybe somebody else taking the other lane re-trains it wrong? There's no single right behavior at the split point though.

I think the confusion people will have with Elon's statement is that "every intervention" of AP is uploaded does not mean every time a driver intervenes. What Tesla defines as "interventions" I suspect is much narrower then what many drivers think. Trying to take the wrong lane is a lot different then when the car initiates an audible alert telling the driver to take control immediately. Elon is very likely referring to the audible alert which is a very small subset of errors that require drivers to take control.

 

[Unpilot]

See no demand since they aren't doubling production every year any more. Even so they are going to run out of places to park all those cars. Unless they start parking them in tunnels, but how will they be able to get photos in the tunnels? Wow what a conundrum for the shorty shorts.

What do you think the boring co. is for?

 

[Remus]

Do they load themselves?
“Won’t be long before they do” replied Elon.

Viral video secured.

Admittedly I am one of the full self driving skepticals. But fully automatically loading/unloading/queuing for supercharging/vallet parking are several easy areas that are actually within reach.

 

[Intl Professor]

You mean 2020 and 2023?

Yes. Senior moment, I'm really losing it.

 

[ClimateOptimst]

I checked, guidance was for all vehicles.

Quote from the Q4 update letter was, "In total, we are expecting to deliver 360,000 to 400,000 vehicles in 2019." If Elon's now suggesting 500,000 total for 2019, it's a step up

 

[Todd Burch]

Elon said "around 500k".

Before we all get ahead of ourselves, let's recognize that in the context of going from zero, 400k is around 500k.

Just trying to keep it real, homies.

 

[EVNow]

Quote from the Q4 update letter was, "In total, we are expecting to deliver 360,000 to 400,000 vehicles in 2019." If Elon's now suggesting 500,000 total for 2019, it's a step up

Taking 6k/wk of Model 3 and 80k of S/X, makes it about 380k. So, is EM saying more than 7k/wk average for 3 ?

 

[Joe F]

Yes. Senior moment, I'm really losing it.

Full throttle launch is just what the doctor ordered. Takes years off your life.

Edit: you’re not alone! I edited this simple reply twice before I got it right.

Still doesn’t read properly to me. It makes you younger. I need to just go to sleep.

 

[oneday]

I think the confusion people will have with Elon's statement is that "every intervention" of AP is uploaded does not mean every time a driver intervenes. What Tesla defines as "interventions" I suspect is much narrower then what many drivers think. Trying to take the wrong lane is a lot different then when the car initiates an audible alert telling the driver to take control immediately. Elon is very likely referring to the audible alert which is a very small subset of errors that require drivers to take control.

@verygreen has mentioned similar things and has confirmed that every time a driver takes over is not sent to the mothership. I think he has said it’s more like 0.1%

Quote from the Q4 update letter was, "In total, we are expecting to deliver 360,000 to 400,000 vehicles in 2019." If Elon's now suggesting 500,000 total for 2019, it's a step up

Deliveries != production, plus he said “about”.

Elon said "around 500k".

Before we all get ahead of ourselves, let's recognize that in the context of going from zero, 400k is around 500k.

Just trying to keep it real, homies.

^^^^^ THIS

 

[MartinAustin]

Elon could mean annualized rate of 500,000/yr (not that 2019's production total will be 500,000).

Or 9,615/wk which seems... possible

 

[Tim S]

Taking 6k/wk of Model 3 and 80k of S/X, makes it about 380k. So, is EM saying more than 7k/wk average for 3 ?

Yup, sounds like an average of about 8k per week of Model 3 for the entire year. 8k x 52 = 416k Model 3 plus 80k Model S/X = 496k. That is including significant production in GF3 in China by the end of the year of course.

 

[anthonyj]

Elon Musk on Twitter

"Meant to say annualized production rate at end of 2019 probably around 500k, ie 10k cars/week. Deliveries for year still estimated to be about 400k."

Have to agree with the shorts on this one. That is two completely different statements

 

[MP3Mike]

Yup, sounds like an average of about 8k per week of Model 3 for the entire year. 8k x 52 = 416k Model 3 plus 80k Model S/X = 496k. That is including significant production in GF3 in China by the end of the year of course.

Wow you nailed that.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Lol Elon you gotta stay off Twitter when it comes to projections.

I do think that internally Elon is shooting to produce 500k cars this year and is confident they can do it or get close. But even if he's like 90% confident they can, it's best to guide lower and then surprise as the year goes on.

So continues the story of Elon shooting himself in the foot on Twitter

 

[SebastianR]

Hm, interesting. So they do care about TSLA after all.
So first the FSD story, then the photo of 4000 vehicles to Europe, then guidance for 2019 increased- that’s a lot of TSLA maintenance in my book.

Edit: runrate clarifies... still intriguing to see Elon in this mode. Volatility will go up, as everyone and their grandma will do their best to interpret, confuse and misunderstand these moves.

Aside from the convertible note deadline what has happened that caused this change of heart of now talking to investors again?

 

[anthonyj]

Hm, interesting. So they do care about TSLA after all.
So first the FSD story, then the photo of 4000 vehicles to Europe, then guidance for 2019 increased- that’s a lot of TSLA maintenance in my book.

Edit: runrate clarifies... still intriguing to see Elon in this mode. Volatility will go up, as everyone and their grandma will do their best to interpret, confuse and misunderstand these moves.

Aside from the convertible note deadline what has happened that caused this change of heart of now talking to investors again?

In terms of deadlines, Elon is not credible. FSD, feature complete or not, will *likely* not release this year. As we've now seen with his "clarification", Tesla will likely not produce 500k cars in 2019. This is why the market is timid. Tesla WILL reach their goals, and it's not a matter of if, but when.

 

[Buckminster]

Heh, no fair. I was enjoying the hysterics. Lets keep it going - "Deliveries for year still estimated to be about 400k". That could mean a little more than guidance!

420k maybe....

 

[TradingInvest]

Elon could mean annualized rate of 500,000/yr (not that 2019's production total will be 500,000).

Or 9,615/wk which seems... possible

Elon's clarification: "Meant to say annualized production rate at end of 2019 probably around 500k, ie 10k cars/week. Deliveries for year still estimated to be about 400k."

 

[Tim S]

Yup, sounds like an average of about 8k per week of Model 3 for the entire year. 8k x 52 = 416k Model 3 plus 80k Model S/X = 496k. That is including significant production in GF3 in China by the end of the year of course.

Never mind, Elon clarified after he saw these posts Now guiding 400k vehicles for the year.