Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CorneliusXX]

Dude, you're congratulating yourself? Tesla is worth no less today than it was yesterday. TSLA is being manipulated. You don't even know how today ranked in naked short selling. Not a good look for you.

It's not self congratulation (why would you read that into it?), It's trying to bring a healthy dose of reality to the conversation.

No-one in their right mind believes Tesla is worth $2T today (although it has a good shot at getting there over time if they continue to execute their plans. There is uncertainty between now and then which accounts for the difference in value). If anyone here believes in a $2T valuation today, I'm happy to offload my shares to them at half that price. The cheque might already be in the mail with that sort of deal on offer.

It's also extremely unlikely that the stock price can move by 40%+ in a day without game changing news.

Looks don't matter. Reality does. There's a difference between being a cheerleader and a Stan.

 

[StealthP3D]

A Rebuttal of Montana Skeptic's Autoline AAH #503 Tesla Misinformation Campaign

Wrote a blog to help refute this guy's nonsense.

Congratulations on making it through 1/7th of Fossi's idiocy. After hearing the show my first thought was to refute all the (mostly fake) points he tried to make. Then I realized he wasn't worth my effort. So you are a better and more patient man than I.

The only people who believe him are TSLAQ, even the shows hosts (who presumably invited him) were looking stupified at half of what he had to say, particularly near the end when he let his true ignorance and hatred show through. I don't think any rational person would find him credible when his emotions are being projected in a mouth-frothing torrent. He ended up looking like a fool.

Thanks for taking the time to dissect the BS. I know it's not fun!

 

[Green Pete]

Mods seem to be stepping back from the overpolicing and maybe erroring in the other direction. I think maybe it would do everyone some good to take a breath and not watch the news or post here again until Sunday night.

 

[MC3OZ]

It's not self congratulation (why would you read that into it?), It's trying to bring a healthy dose of reality to the conversation.

No-one in their right mind believes Tesla is worth $2T today (although it has a good shot at getting there over time if they continue to execute their plans. There is uncertainty between now and then which accounts for the difference in value). If anyone here believes in a $2T valuation today, I'm happy to offload my shares to them at half that price. The cheque might already be in the mail with that sort of deal on offer.

It's also extremely unlikely that the stock price can move by 40%+ in a day without game changing news.

Looks don't matter. Reality does. There's a difference between being a cheerleader and a Stan.

If you are trying to time the market, you need to worry about upside surprises.

The potential upside surprises are:-

• Q1/Q2 earnings
• Battery Investor Day
• S&P 500 inclusion
• Good FSD progress.
• Good Chinese Production
• Fremont reopening with good production
• Miracle cure for CV19
• US car industry support provides subsidies for Tesla.

You can make a guess for each of these I made a guess for S&P 500 inclusion, they are not likely, but by definition surprises are surprising because you don't expect them.

I don't expect a surprise before the end of Q2, but I can't totally rule it out, Tesla is one of the companies mostly likely to surprise on the upside.

Of course there an also be down side surprises CV19 was one, most of us long term hold investors just ride out short term downside surprises.

I think S&P inclusion by 2021 is very likely, hence conversion of the next convertible is very likely, and that is my primary concern, I want it to covert. I want Tesla debt to trend downwards, while revenue trends upwards...

 

[FrankSG]

Congratulations on making it through 1/7th of Fossi's idiocy. After hearing the show my first thought was to refute all the (mostly fake) points he tried to make. Then I realized he wasn't worth my effort. So you are a better and more patient man than I.

The only people who believe him are TSLAQ, even the shows hosts (who presumably invited him) were looking stupified at half of what he had to say, particularly near the end when he let his true ignorance and hatred show through. I don't think any rational person would find him credible when his emotions are being projected in a mouth-frothing torrent. He ended up looking like a fool.

Thanks for taking the time to dissect the BS. I know it's not fun!

Haha, thanks

I actually enjoyed doing it. Especially the "the competition is coming" section was fun to write, and I made myself laugh a lot

As soon as I noticed I got tired of it and realised I had accomplished what I set out to do though, I finished it up.

 

[CorneliusXX]

The latest GF3 drone video is out.

The host refers to the ongoing construction as phase 2A and phase 2B - which are split by a road. The groundworks outside of the diamond footprint (phase 2B) may be for a more substantial building than initially thought.

The substation is also being expanded. Could this reflect the need for more power than initially planned, or just being built in stages to match the expansion of the overall factory?

 

[MaChiMiB]

This was likely filmed on April 3rd, a day before Qingming (day of the deaths holiday), which will get more attention, due to Corona. Maybe the reduced activity around Model 3 production is because of that.


1) Newly build Model 3 get detailed here, or something. There is usually a queue. Now it's closed.
2) No activity on the test track. No parked Model 3s on the side of the road. Very unusual.
3) Container bays almost completely occupied. This is where the GA line is.
4) Very very few pallets, almost none. Count steadily decreased since March 19th. Fact Checking once guessed that drivetrains from Giga Nevada get shipped on those pallets. Just saying that the amount of pallets there has changed, could mean several things.
5) Plenty of containers on the lot. Nothing unusual.
6) 146 Model 3s
7) No trucks to pick up Model 3s. This is very unusual. Normally there are a bunch (4-6). (could be due to Qingming)
8) Not visible from this angle, but there are only a few containers on the "Body in White" line. But those bays were never completely occupied in the past either.

No Models 3s were driving from the factory to the shipping lot.

Regarding Model Y building construction: That's Phase 3A and 3B as you can see on the banner in Jason Yangs video, not Phase 2A and 2B.

 

[Fishy Fish]

If you are trying to time the market, you need to worry about upside surprises.

The potential upside surprises are:-

• Q1/Q2 earnings
• Battery Investor Day
• S&P 500 inclusion
• Good FSD progress.
• Good Chinese Production
• Fremont reopening with good production
• Miracle cure for CV19
• US car industry support provides subsidies for Tesla.

You can make a guess for each of these I made a guess for S&P 500 inclusion, they are not likely, but by definition surprises are surprising because you don't expect them.

I don't expect a surprise before the end of Q2, but I can't totally rule it out, Tesla is one of the companies mostly likely to surprise on the upside.

Of course there an also be down side surprises CV19 was one, most of us long term hold investors just ride out short term downside surprises.

I think S&P inclusion by 2021 is very likely, hence conversion of the next convertible is very likely, and that is my primary concern, I want it to covert. I want Tesla debt to trend downwards, while revenue trends upwards...

A surprise Opec+ deal between Russia/Saudi could create a macro bump as well, at least for the short term, causing a lift for everything. Oil was up significantly just at the mention of the possibility of one by you know who. Actual word of something about to come together could happen as soon as Monday.

 

[TSLA Pilot]

hey haven't been on much lately but what happened with @Fact Checking and @KarenRei ?

It appears the Mods-from-Hell have driven them off, but I've not been on the site as much of late either.

Without their informative content, there's not as much reason to return here.

One would think the Mods would know that . . . and invite them back with apologies for having driven them off, no?

 

[JRP3]

It appears the Mods-from-Hell have driven them off, but I've not been on the site as much of late either.

Without their informative content, there's not as much reason to return here.

One would think the Mods would know that . . . and invite them back with apologies for having driven them off, no?

They have made it clear they don't want to come back. They have moved on. We'll survive.

 

[JRP3]

Absolutely not. It’s called taxes and never again having the chance of getting back in at my low price. It’s called being an investor with a long term plan.

If I had known what was coming I would have sold some at 900, taken the tax hit, and bought back twice as many shares under 400. Of course I couldn't see the future in either case so I sold some under 900 and bought some back above 400, still with a net gain.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Elon Musk on Twitter

still on track to raise prices on FSD by July 1st. Interesting to see how much value will be added. I read it as bullish considering the macro events. How many other car companies will be raising prices in the near future?

Elon Musk on Twitter


Elon Musk on Twitter

Really pleased SOMEONE posted this in this, the coronavirus thread. I think this is a pretty big deal. It means the gap between tesla and everybody else on the self driving front is more apparent, and it means some realization of FSD revenue is coming soon, either Q1 or Q2 which will make the balance sheet look really good. And once its rolled out in china, expect a lot of videos of how well it works, even while the rest of the world is in lockdown.

I doubt tesla will do battery investor day until the markets stabilize. they don't have to be in any rush to tip the competition as to what they are doing.

 

[davepsilon]

Delivery report is positive that even with the wave delivery crashing against the corona virus shutdowns

A surprise Opec+ deal between Russia/Saudi could create a macro bump as well, at least for the short term, causing a lift for everything. Oil was up significantly just at the mention of the possibility of one by you know who. Actual word of something about to come together could happen as soon as Monday.

Due to oversupply of oil one number I saw was that oil inventories have been increasing by 25 Mbpd. Saudi output increase as part of the ‘oil price war’ is about 2 Mbpd. Oil price was always going to drop during this non-essential shutdown. Price war narrative accelerated it and filled up storage faster.

 

[Cirrus MS100D]

The “free payroll” stuff in the CARES package is shaping up to be comedy - I know a guy who works at a small (less than $1bil) hedge fund with about 20 people. They’re doing OK performance-wise, down a bit for 2020, but they’re applying because, in his words, “Why the hell not? We’re a small business and have less than 100 people lolz!”

The banks seem to have no idea what to make of it yet and I think the pool will only have $300mm to offer, so it’ll be interesting to see who gets it and who won’t.

Small Tesla suppliers? A random hedge fund? Who needs it more?

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

They have made it clear they don't want to come back. They have moved on. We'll survive.

whoa what did I miss?

 

[JRP3]

Drama.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

The “free payroll” stuff in the CARES package is shaping up to be comedy - I know a guy who works at a small (less than $1bil) hedge fund with about 20 people. They’re doing OK performance-wise, down a bit for 2020, but they’re applying because, in his words, “Why the hell not? We’re a small business and have less than 100 people lolz!”

The banks seem to have no idea what to make of it yet and I think the pool will only have $300mm to offer, so it’ll be interesting to see who gets it and who won’t.

Small Tesla suppliers? A random hedge fund? Who needs it more?

The greediest shadiest people will get the most, of course

 

[gerebgraus]

Letting contractors go is probably a necessary step to get them on unemployment. They're contractors, if the factory can reopen in two weeks, bring em back.

Exactly. There is some chance that with the CARES act they will get more unemployment than their wage was especially in Reno.
A negative consequence that they might not rush back to work once the factory reopens except one possible benefit against all harm from the recession, depression or whatever comes is that hiring in Reno will be easier.

 

[Zero CO2]

It appears the Mods-from-Hell have driven them off, but I've not been on the site as much of late either.

Without their informative content, there's not as much reason to return here.

One would think the Mods would know that . . . and invite them back with apologies for having driven them off, no?

I find there is still a lot of good content posted here and I think other posters are stepping up to the plate with content ...life goes on people ... I agree both @Fact Checking and @KarenRei were informative and dedicated posters to this thread .... but lets face it there are 2 sides to every story ... they could have been the bigger man/women in this case but have chosen not to ... as far as i am concerned it is there loss not ours ....

 

[Fobble]

It appears the Mods-from-Hell have driven them off, but I've not been on the site as much of late either.

Without their informative content, there's not as much reason to return here.

One would think the Mods would know that . . . and invite them back with apologies for having driven them off, no?

How long more do we want to repeat these? Do we have to talk about it in posts on every weekend?