Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

I've sold off some more of my hedges today. So overall it's about 1/4 of the sizes from when I first started my tripple short strategy. Portfolio is back to about breakeven when I last checked in January.

Don't really enjoy having to deal with this, but I remembered that even the most "buy and forget" investor, Buffett, also resorted to little tricks and maneuvers when he encountered one of these market collapses in his life time. Which is counter to a lot of safe investment advices. I don't think anybody can truly be passive with their investments from now on. We have to adapt as the world is changing and we are getting "once in a lifetime" black swan events every decade now and a lot of things that doesn't make sense mathematically started showing up. Like negative bond yield and negative oil prices. Think about it from another perspective. Someone throws money at you when you buy something. It's like those little junk plastic toys they throw at you as a reward at a shop for being a customer. It means the money is worthless.

Passive investing doesn't necessarily mean you don't do anything. I'm not entirely passive but I don't hedge my investments and I don't panic every time a new virus is announced. My brokerage account is up over 27% YTD which includes a large cash position of about 45% that I've been sitting on which has obviously been doing nothing but drastically lowering my overall return. Of course, it's a hedge of sorts if the market takes another dive.

Those relatively passive investors not invested in oil, airlines and travel stocks did much better than those who hold significant percentages in those sectors. I'm a big believer in reducing risk, not by selling off or hedging at the first sign of potential trouble, but by owning companies you don't mind owning during market disruptions.

I forgot who it was, but I was listening to an analyst lately who mentioned that the gas/oil component of the S&P 500 has recently shrunk from 17% of the index (or was it 13%?) to only 3%! This means the S&P 500 does not need get back to old highs for people's portfolios to make new highs as long as those people were not holding stocks in the gas/oil sector. It's a re-calibration of the index and what it means. This relates to some comments I made yesterday about the recovery of the market from COVID-19 impacts being relatively quick but some sectors (airlines and oil) will never fully recover. But I'm not particularly concerned with those sectors.

 

[woodisgood]

So now that Say.com has opened up the period to submit questions for the Q1 investor call, is there anything that we really need to ask? (Sadly most of the questions submitted are always low quality or duplicative.) But hey they don't drop to the AJ level.

I don’t know, it’s been a whole quarter. I think the prospect of putting Starlink antennas in Teslas should be revisited.

 

[jhm]

It looks like Tesla is running out of land at Giga Shanghai. Nearly every patch is being built.

 

[hershey101]

How are folks feeling going into this ER?
I have a feeling we rally up heading into next week to ~$800-$850, and just stay there... The best thing $TSLA can do is withdraw 2020 guidence IMO. All the companies have been doing that so far, and the market's been quite nice to them.
If they were to give guidence, is it possible to guide anything above 400k this year? How would they achieve these numbers? I wouldn't be surprised if the stock tanked on a <400k guidence (unless we go into earnings at $650ish).

 

[adiggs]

It look like Tesla is running out of land at Giga Shanghai. Nearly every patch is being built.

Looks that way in the overhead drone videos we've been getting as well.

It also looks like there's a nice big field growing stuff right over the canal / river along one border. Like maybe they could double up the land under Tesla car cultivation if they can find a mutually agreeable price for that land.


Of course, probably the smart / diversified / resilient thing to do is to get a new site at another location in china for the next site. How long do they wait before the expansion of Giga Shanghai turns into site prep at a new China site? H'mm...

 

[Krugerrand]

So now that Say.com has opened up the period to submit questions for the Q1 investor call, is there anything that we really need to ask? (Sadly most of the questions submitted are always low quality or duplicative.) But hey they don't drop to the AJ level.

Somebody needs to ask the question on so many minds: Will Tesla start advertising now that the pandemic has destroyed all demand for your vehicles?

I triple dog dare you to infinity, to ask that question.

 

[woodisgood]

Somebody needs to ask the question on so many minds: Will Tesla start advertising now that the pandemic has destroyed all demand for your vehicles?

I tripe dog dare you to infinity, to ask that question.

Okay but first I need to know - the “eject” button under Elon’s thumb - what does it do?

 

[Krugerrand]

It looks like Tesla is running out of land at Giga Shanghai. Nearly every patch is being built.

Hey! Wanted to ask you if you’re happy with TSLA’s new trading range? If I recall correctly, you weren’t happy with it getting into the 900’s. Are the blind faith targets good now?

 

[Krugerrand]

How are folks feeling going into this ER?

Honestly, I’m feeling fatter. I’m also incredibly proud for not having offed my spouse yet.

Oh, you meant SP related — feeling the same as always; that I should go play craps in Vegas.

 

[Nocturnal]

Thank you for just blowing up any thought of advertising or advertising effectiveness and all else related with that one sentence.

We’re all supposedly prime targets for advertising, which I’ve been told by some here can not be avoided in anyway - hold up while I’m compelled to buy the Cocoa Puffs.

Now I’ve been told that even an ad on the up and up (because ads can be ‘righteous’, detailing facts will be dismissed by the very people who need to buy an EV (that’s why we’re targeting them because they think coal is king and oil is his twin brother) because they are immune to factual advertising.

What a stupendous laugh I am having right now.

No not at all. You just aren't looking at the entire issue, and I'm not sure you read my post.

Advertising to those people is a waste of time. Advertising to other people may not be. I was addressing the former, not the latter. We can't even convince people to stay at home during a pandemic, that vaccines don't cause autism, and that Obama wasn't a secret Muslim from Kenya. Do you think that crowd will embrace EVs because they see a Tesla commercial?

 

[Krugerrand]

Okay but first I need to know - the “eject” button under Elon’s thumb - what does it do?

Where’s your sense of adventure? Live in the moment. Embrace spontaneity and surprise.

 

[The Blue Owl]

Where’s your sense of adventure? Live in the moment. Embrace spontaneity and surprise.

I am psychotic.

 

[woodisgood]

Where’s your sense of adventure? Live in the moment. Embrace spontaneity and surprise.

I thought being a Tesla shareholder checked those boxes.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Unlike yesterday, TSLA maintained a very strong close today while almost all others faltered. Nice to see most of the losses of the last two days have been recouped. Buy and hold strategy certainly makes TSLA much more fun to watch. I hope I have learned my lesson.

 

[jhm]

Hey! Wanted to ask you if you’re happy with TSLA’s new trading range? If I recall correctly, you weren’t happy with it getting into the 900’s. Are the blind faith targets good now?

Thanks for asking. I'm not feeling particularly grumpy. But the current price of $732 is 82% bullish in terms of the Blind Faith methodology. I was selling covered calls on Monday near $760. The current prices are too rich for me to accumulate. I'd prefer to buy around $400. But I do like that the market is taking Tesla more seriously these days.

 

[Artful Dodger]

My brokerage account is up over 27% YTD which includes a large cash position of about 45%

...75% YTD, including 0.1% cash / 99.9% TSLA in my tradHODLing account

Cheers!

 

[Krugerrand]

No not at all. You just aren't looking at the entire issue, and I'm not sure you read my post.

Advertising to those people is a waste of time. Advertising to other people may not be. I was addressing the former, not the latter. We can't even convince people to stay at home during a pandemic, that vaccines don't cause autism, and that Obama wasn't a secret Muslim from Kenya. Do you think that crowd will embrace EVs because they see a Tesla commercial?

I did read your whole post. My comment wasn’t specific to just your thoughts, but also more broadly to those who keep telling me/us that;

a) advertising works on everyone; yes it does
b) that advertising without lying, stretching the truth, ignoring the pesky little details — exists and works on everyone
c) that somehow advertising is going to fix the demand problem Tesla doesn’t actually have

...and so on.

Here’s the problem I have with your take on it; the people you think advertising will work on are in fact not the people who need to see a Tesla ad — those people already get it or will get it when a neighbor, friend, coworker, family member shows them their Tesla, and the people you think a Tesla ad won’t work on are the ones that need to see something to convince them to change their minds. Indeed, they’re likely to need even more than that — think dragged kicking and screaming into change and the future.

That’s the hilarity of what you pointed out.

I’ve looked at the situation from all sides and I concluded a long time ago, people can be counted on to act like people.

 

[Curt Renz]

Happy Earth Day

The video below is the presentation by Tony Seba for the 1st World CleanTech Week eConvention on this Earth Day 2020.

Rethinking the Future - Clean Disruption and the Collapse of the Oil, Coal and Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle Industries

 

[Krugerrand]

I thought being a Tesla shareholder checked those boxes.

Fair enough.

Let’s assume then that any button labeled ‘eject’ doesn’t end well for you.

 

[hershey101]

Thanks for asking. I'm not feeling particularly grumpy. But the current price of $732 is 82% bullish in terms of the Blind Faith methodology. I was selling covered calls on Monday near $760. The current prices are too rich for me to accumulate. I'd prefer to buy around $400. But I do like that the market is taking Tesla more seriously these days.

I've been writing back-ratio puts in the $450/$500 range...