Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

That's just false unless you limit it to day-trading or frequent trading. Buy and hold investors do very well on average, and if they only hold stocks that beat the indexes, then they beat the indexes.

For most retail investors, the problem happens when they start trading in/out of their positions based on changes in the share price or recent news/analyst upgrades/downgrades.

But thanks for your concern.

IMO a key difference is, emotional decisions usually lose money, and rational decisions mostly make money.

That is the cycle of greed and fear, an emotional investor can lose on both legs, a rational investor can win on at least 1 leg.

 

[Words of HABIT]

I wanted to compare the revenue ramp of Tesla with that of the early days of Ford motor company but all I could find was production #'s (not revenue). Because Ford relentlessly lowered the price of the Model T as production volumes grew, it's not a good comparison. But from my rough estimation, it looks like Tesla is ramping even more quickly than Henry Ford did as the automobile took over from the horse and buggy. A lot more quickly!:

Interesting figures. They stop at year 1917. I wonder what happed to Ford's production between 1918-1920 during the Spanish Infuenza Pandemic. Now that would be really interesting?

 

[PeterJA]

I'm not a fan of all the TSLA pumping recently, buying islands, getting rich quick. It is getting old. A few weeks back a new thread "What to spend new TSLA wealth on" was started. Apparently a whole new thread for this was needed. Really? Please use that it for fantasy posts.

For any new TMC viewers posters, remember, in general for stock market investing only 10% of retail investors will come out on top, even on a stock like TSLA. Most are unable for various reasons to hold through turmoil. Most retail investors by far will lose money. Please be careful. Do you own research from multiple resources before investing in any stock. Own your own investment decisions and do not rely on individual to decide for you. It must be you decision and your decision alone.

Tesla and TSLA has done amazingly well in spite of the World pandemic (a crisis not seen since 1918), up 73% YTD, while "big" auto are all down +-45%. Even high flying APPL is down 6% YOY. AMZN is up 30% YOY and a smidge away from APPL's market cap of $1.2T and I believe its best days are behind it as the pandemic slowly unwinds and the economy starts to open up. The pandemic is a wild card and could still wreak further havoc on Markets and could take a lot longer than most expect to return to the new normal. Nothing is guarranteed. Not even TSLA.

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The island jokes were jokes. The TSLA "pumping" I've seen contained facts and evidence. Which of these were 'fantasy posts"?

I'm not a fan of evidence-free assertions like "only 10% of retail investors will come out on top, even on a stock like TSLA. Most are unable for various reasons to hold through turmoil." Every retail investor with eyes knows TSLA is volatile. The facts and evidence posted here helped many folks (according to them) have the courage to hold through the drops. "Please be careful" is kindly advice, but more vague than helpful.

If you see specific threats to buy-and-hold TSLA investors, or think someone has posted fantasy, please explain why and support it with evidence instead of bromides.

 

[Artful Dodger]

NASDAQ consensus GAAP EPS is -1.22: Tesla, Inc. Common Stock (TSLA) Earnings Report Date

Yahoo finance non-GAAP is -0.23: Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Analyst Ratings, Estimates & Forecasts - Yahoo Finance

Pretty sure there will be some positive surprise.

Tesla also has another virtual tailwind for 2020Q2 GAAP profitability (the one that matters for S&P 500 inclusion). From the Apr 7, 2020 Tesla HR email to all employees:

"Equity grants will be on hold as well."​

This effectively means no stock based compensation payable in 2020Q2, thus zero GAAP expense for this item, which is a major contributor to the difference between reported GAAP vs non-GAAP income.

As a final note, this also likely means that the 1st tranche of Elon's 'see-eee-ohh' compensation will be deferred at least until Q3, again meaning that Tesla will not have to claim that amnt against GAAP expenses.

Cheers!

 

[Words of HABIT]

That's just false unless you limit it to day-trading or frequent trading. Buy and hold investors do very well on average, and if they only hold stocks that beat the indexes, then they beat the indexes.

For most retail investors, the problem happens when they start trading in/out of their positions based on changes in the share price or recent news/analyst upgrades/downgrades.

But thanks for your concern.

@StealthP3D, not everyone is smart or lucky enough to understand the paradigm shift and hold TSLA like you and I. We are in the right spot at the right time. For that I am thankful.

Sorry, I don't buy your argument that buy and hold investors do very well on average. Lets take a few well know companies that at one time were market darlings. The last five years has Citibank -19%, GM -40%Ford -69%, GE -75%. How much longer would you need to hold these? When would you get out? You may say I picked DOGS however again at one time these companies were considered the CATS meow.

The above said, my belief is Buy and Hold is still the far better approach than trading and trying to time the market. What I am saying is that very few make money from the Stock Market, and I can prove it. If most people made money on the Stock Market, then they would not need to work, and I don't see a shortage of workers, nor will I any time soon.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Super rich is nice but how long till filthy rich?

Filthy Rich is scheduled to premiere in 2020 as a midseason entry.

I do expect a covid delay...

Cheers!

 

[StealthP3D]

Why do high value contributors get harrassed via PMs for posting high value comments in the thread marked as "Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable"?

I haven't even bothered to find out which (former I assume) mod instigated this, but as to how it could happen, I can only think of one logical answer.

I don't know if this is the case but the only thing that makes sense to me is that an anti-Tesla person (TSLAQ or otherwise) managed to pose as a Tesla supporter long enough to bamboozle their way to a moderator position in order to sow discord. I don't know if this is the case but how else could it happen?

If that's what happened, it was quite a coup!

 

[StealthP3D]

@StealthP3D, not everyone is smart or lucky enough to understand the paradigm shift and hold TSLA like you and I. We are in the right spot at the right time. For that I am thankful.

Damn! It was YOU who said even with Tesla.

Sorry, I don't buy your argument that buy and hold investors do very well on average. Lets take a few well know companies that at one time were market darlings. The last five years has Citibank -19%, GM -40%Ford -69%, GE -75%. How much longer would you need to hold these? When would you get out? You may say I picked DOGS however again at one time these companies were considered the CATS meow.

Yes, if you cherry-pick the dogs after the fact a buy and hold investor will under-perform. And that is what you have done here. If you throw darts at a SP 500 dartboard, the average buy and hold investor will approximate the S&P 500.

What I am saying is that very few make money from the Stock Market, and I can prove it. If most people made money on the Stock Market, then they would not need to work, and I don't see a shortage of workers, nor will I any time soon.

I'm sorry to be blunt, but that's a load of crap! Matching the returns of the indexes does not imply you don't have to work! I worked hard for a lot of years and outperformed the indexes in a big way before I could retire. Had I matched the indexes, I would still be working today (and not living nearly as well).

 

[dl003]

matching SP 500 isn't enough. At the minimum you have to have a good combination of saving rate & starting age. The average saving rate of Americans is 8% and that's way way too low. People simply are not good with money. And I'm not saying this with an elitist attitude. I overhear my coworkers talking about money all day long and it's really depressing.

 

[AlMc]

I haven't even bothered to find out which (former I assume) mod instigated this, but as to how it could happen, I can only think of one logical answer.

I don't know if this is the case but the only thing that makes sense to me is that an anti-Tesla person (TSLAQ or otherwise) managed to pose as a Tesla supporter long enough to bamboozle their way to a moderator position in order to sow discord. I don't know if this is the case but how else could it happen?

If that's what happened, it was quite a coup!

Yeah, no. Another logical answer is that mods have a thankless job and basically at one time or another tick everyone off (including me) to the point where they say WTF and move on, with others, to other forums/places.

 

[Jack6591]

Suppose you were a Tesla troll and suppose you wanted to disrupt the TMC community.

Now suppose you used the forum rules and mods to sow partisan discord.

I am not privy to the data and evidence; but I would like to see the hypothesis tested.

 

[Krugerrand]

I'm not a fan of all the TSLA pumping recently, buying islands, getting rich quick. It is getting old.

There’s just as much melodrama about how awful the stock is doing or will do, how it’s going to be negatively affected by so and so leaving the company, by a tweet from the CEO, by the short sellers doing interviews, by the price of oil going up or going down, by analyst downgrades, by the release of an EV by some want to be competitor in 5 years, by cash burn, by a missed deadline, by a snow storm delaying year end deliveries, by demand issues, by currency exchange rates, by lawsuits, by Brexit, by the price of tea in China and certainly it’s been discussed at length how much the pandemic is going to negatively affect TSLA.

And you know what, people have lost money listening to that doom and gloom too. So I’m really not sure what you’re on about.

I’ve read this forum for 8 years. It cyclical like everything else in life. It goes through periods of manic depression and euphoria and everything in between because that’s how people behave in real life when they are emotionally invested in whatever. Add money to the mix and you can expect an even bigger emotional response. Very few people can entirely remove emotions from the money equation.

I’ve been holding TSLA stock since 2012 and don’t day trade or play options, nor do I encourage others to do the last two. I’ve added to those original shares the last couple of times people on here went all demand is an issue crazy, just like I ‘joked’ I would do. I’ve never advocated getting rich quick and I do in fact hold more than enough shares to buy an island; though admittedly not Australia or Hawaii.

I did almost buy a 3/4 acre island several years ago with a cute house on it. It wasn’t as much money as you might think. So joking, not joking. I’d totally walk into a bank with duffel bags to withdraw my money.

Interesting figures. They stop at year 1917. I wonder what happed to Ford's production between 1918-1920 during the Spanish Infuenza Pandemic. Now that would be really interesting?

Interesting just for the sake of interest or do you want to try and extrapolate it into what’s going to happen in present day? Bad idea if it’s the latter and the reason why some just can’t get out of their own way, be happy, and financially comfortable.

 

[scaesare]

No according to the "Better Call Saul" series! Took him two full duffel bags to get $5M to the bail bond office!

It was 7 $million

 

[StealthP3D]

Interesting figures. They stop at year 1917. I wonder what happed to Ford's production between 1918-1920 during the Spanish Infuenza Pandemic. Now that would be really interesting?

Ford had record production of 735,000 in 1917. Production was reduced in 1918 and 1919 as the US entered WWI (I don't have the numbers) but by 2020 production had increased to over 1.3 million Model T's. I think the war probably had a much larger effect on production than any effect of the Spanish flu pandemic.

 

[dc_h]

Tesla supposedly bought land near Jarrell TX, which is nearby where I live. Not close enough to walk to for me, but I could ride my bike there. I haven't heard any local buzz about the purchase but of course I also haven't been out much lately. Nothing in the local papers that I read. I don't know exactly where the land is located, but everything around Jarrell is agricultural and would not need to bulldoze a forest for example. There are some gently rolling hills that would need some levelling if a large building were to be constructed but no major ecological issues. The land is mostly limestone underneath the top layer. I'm not a structural guy but I wouldn't think that there would be problems putting in a serious foundation. The Balcones fault is nearby to the west but no local faulting. A few caves and sinkholes but these can all be managed.

Would Elon put the plant in Jarell just because the shape of the town limits are funny?

 

[PeterJA]

...What I am saying is that very few make money from the Stock Market, and I can prove it. If most people made money on the Stock Market, then they would not need to work, and I don't see a shortage of workers, nor will I any time soon.

Incidentally, this is a logical fallacy. The existence of workers does not prove that most people lose money in the stock market, because many workers don't invest in the stock market for various reasons.

I sympathize with folks who are frightened (for themselves or others) by TSLA's volatility... are trying to understand it... are struggling to find someone or some rules to follow (diversification, technical analysis, Buffett's trades, etc.) In my opinion, these folks don't know enough about Tesla -- don't understand what a phenomenal, historic company it is.

If you don't understand the company, what are your choices?

1) Spend the time to learn. But this could take a lot of time and expertise.

2) Follow someone who has spent the time, or the consensus of such people. But who?

Not your average financial advisor (who would be retired if he/she could pick stocks). Not most auto analysts and the talking heads on CNBC (who have dubious motives and abysmal records on TSLA).

How about the posters here? Can you trust them? Some claim to have long experience and success, but you have no proof of that.

If I didn't understand Tesla and had to pick someone to trust, I would pick a technology analyst firm with a proven record of success and a diverse staff of experts studying Tesla. ARK Invest has that. ARK says their highest conviction stock is TSLA. ARK's share price target for 2024 is:

Bear case: $1,500
Base case: $7,000
Bull case: $15,000
Tesla Price Target: Tesla's Potential Trajectory During the Next Five Years

 

[Buckminster]

Tesla also has another virtual tailwind for 2020Q2 GAAP profitability (the one that matters for S&P 500 inclusion). From the Apr 7, 2020 Tesla HR email to all employees:

"Equity grants will be on hold as well."​

This effectively means no stock based compensation payable in 2020Q2, thus zero GAAP expense for this item, which is a major contributor to the difference between reported GAAP vs non-GAAP income.

As a final note, this also likely means that the 1st tranche of Elon's 'see-eee-ohh' compensation will be deferred at least until Q3, again meaning that Tesla will not have to claim that amnt against GAAP expenses.

Cheers!

Hugely important post.

I said this 3 weeks ago:

Nobody is more bullish than me on S&P500 inclusion. Two weeks ago, I gave the following odds:

I would now go with the following:
Q1 - 10%
Q2 - 30%

Based on the top post I am going to revise upwards:
Q1 - 20%
Q2 - 50%
Q3 - 80%

Come on Giga Shanghai!!

 

[Buckminster]

Meanwhile deep inside the OEM factories:

Engineering on Twitter

 

[Artful Dodger]

Meanwhile deep inside the OEM factories:

Engineering on Twitter

Lol, that *sugar* will buff out.

 

[Steve m]

All rights reserved all wrongs reversed

está mal, pero no tan mal on Twitter