Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[PeterJA]

The major question is when do we become rich....

Depends on how you define it.

Smart folks have said they will hold TSLA for at least 5-10 years. I doubt riches will take that long. Elon's prediction of "feature-complete" FSD by year-end triggered widespread ridicule. But that ballpark now seems more likely because of yesterday's software update and Andrej Karpathy's recent speech.

As I've opined before, the arrival of FSD will be a Singularity in the transportation industry -- as unpredictable as the greater Singularity coming from general AI. But when the forward-looking Market sees the launch of Tesla Network and calculates the potential profits, I think we can predict the stock will head straight up. The only question is how high.

And that blastoff will come after all the other catalysts this year: Battery Day, more gigafactories, S&P inclusion, etc. etc.

So to answer your question, my guess is 1-2 years to become rich, 5-10 years to become super-rich.

 

[HG Wells]

Super rich is nice but how long till filthy rich ?

 

[madodel]

Wow, No wonder why my mattress is so lumpy!

You need to roll the bills to make a more comfortable mattress.

 

[Tachyon]

Super rich is nice but how long till filthy rich ?

“ Filthy Rich” has a nice heft to it
Just like the CYBERTRUCK

 

[ggr]

This is super helpful because it helps me to know what my $50 million in $1000 bills will look like when I sell my shares, tell off my boss, and retire in 2030

Sorry, there are no $1,000 bills issued any more, at least not US$.

 

[ggr]

NASDAQ consensus GAAP EPS is -1.22: Tesla, Inc. Common Stock (TSLA) Earnings Report Date

Yahoo finance non-GAAP is -0.23: Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Analyst Ratings, Estimates & Forecasts - Yahoo Finance

Pretty sure there will be some positive surprise.

... but we'll be surprised if there isn't.

 

[jerry33]

Super rich is nice but how long till filthy rich ?

As long as I don't have to live on cat food, I'll be content.

 

[HG Wells]

As long as I don't have to live on cat food, I'll be content.

Yes, caviar and salmon get old pretty quick.

 

[UncaNed]

More on topic, SIPC is 500k with 250k cash limit. However, it is rare for stocks to be lost in a brokerage collapse. (Per one blog post) Exceeding $500,000 SIPC Insurance Limit at Vanguard (or any Brokerage)

Does this mean if I own $500,000 of shares and options each in Roth, Traditional, and taxed accounts at one broker, and the same at another broker, total $3,000,000, would I be totally covered?

EDIT -Thank you for acknowledging that I happened to get it right the first time, @mongo .

The above scenario, sadly, does not apply to myself... maybe some day. And if that day ever comes it will be thanks to many of you guys, Karen Rei , @Fact Checking , and mostly our beloved uncle Elon.

_______________
There is much truth to @Words of HABIT 's post below about the need for caution in investing; food for thought about only investing what you can afford to lose. I'm surprised only 10% of retail investors come out on top. Ironically, the single most profitable advice I ever got was from a very level headed outsider suggesting I should sell high, which got me thinking... and so I did. Not at the top, but the results were still outstanding, and of course I DID NOT sell my core shares of TSLA,

I actually enjoy most of the off topic banter about islands and such... but collectively it becomes counter productive, hence my tendency to reluctantly Disagree with so many OT posts lately, especially when perusing this forum on limited time.

I'm not a fan of all the TSLA pumping recently, buying islands, getting rich quick. It is getting old. A few weeks back a new thread "What to spend new TSLA wealth on" was started. Apparently a whole new thread for this was needed. Really? Please use that it for fantasy posts.

For any new TMC viewers posters, remember, in general for stock market investing only 10% of retail investors will come out on top, even on a stock like TSLA. Most are unable for various reasons to hold through turmoil. Most retail investors by far will lose money. Please be careful. Do you own research from multiple resources before investing in any stock. Own your own investment decisions and do not rely on individual to decide for you. It must be you decision and your decision alone.

Tesla and TSLA has done amazingly well in spite of the World pandemic (a crisis not seen since 1918), up 73% YTD, while "big" auto are all down +-45%. Even high flying APPL is down 6% YOY. AMZN is up 30% YOY and a smidge away from APPL's market cap of $1.2T and I believe its best days are behind it as the pandemic slowly unwinds and the economy starts to open up. The pandemic is a wild card and could still wreak further havoc on Markets and could take a lot longer than most expect to return to the new normal. Nothing is guarranteed. Not even TSLA.

View attachment 535819

Apologies if I've broken some sort of temporal rule commenting on a post that occurred AFTER this post. If only such skills extended to stock trading.

-Edited spasticly many, many times. Hoping my repetitive edits and saves didn't repeatedly send anyone intrusive notifications!

 

[RobStark]

Tesla Is Calling Some California Plant Workers Back Next Week

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[SPadival]

Anyway, I've stopped posting on TMC too, until this gets clarified or the title of this thread gets changed.

Why am I not surprised. The mods have turned this forum into you know what.

 

[HG Wells]

Well, as I understand it, each account is separate per broker.
IE a regular account, a IRA account and (possibly) a roth IRA account.
You could also have a joint account and a trust account

I may be wrong.

 

[mongo]

Does this mean if I own $500,000 of shares and options each in Roth, Traditional, and taxed accounts at one broker, and the same at another broker, total $3,000,000, would I be totally covered? Or would it be $500,000 per broker?? I'm not smart enough to extract those details despite it being right in front of me...

This does not apply to myself... maybe some day. And if that day ever comes it will be thanks to many of you guys, Karen Rei and @Fact Checking , and mostly our beloved uncle Elon.

Well, as I understand it, each account is separate per broker.
IE a regular account, a IRA account and (possibly) a roth IRA account.
You could also have a joint account and a trust account

I may be wrong.

You're not wrong.

Each type and owner group is separate. A joint account is a separate 500k from an individual. Roth is separate from IRA.
So, in the example, it would cover the full 3 million.
SIPC - Investors with Multiple Accounts

 

[Words of HABIT]

I'm not a fan of all the TSLA pumping recently, buying islands, getting rich quick. It is getting old. A few weeks back a new thread "What to spend new TSLA wealth on" was started. Apparently a whole new thread for this was needed. Really? Please use that for fantasy posts.

For any new TMC viewers posters, remember, in general for stock market investing only 10% of retail investors will come out on top, even on a stock like TSLA. Most are unable for various reasons to hold through turmoil. Most retail investors by far will lose money. Please be careful. Do you own research from multiple resources before investing in any stock. Own your own investment decisions and do not rely on individual to decide for you. It must be you decision and your decision alone.

Tesla and TSLA has done amazingly well in spite of the World pandemic (a crisis not seen since 1918), up 73% YTD, while "big" auto are all down +-45%. Even high flying APPL is down 6% YOY. AMZN is up 30% YOY and a smidge away from APPL's market cap of $1.2T and I believe its best days are behind it as the pandemic slowly unwinds and the economy starts to open up. The pandemic is a wild card and could still wreak further havoc on Markets and could take a lot longer than most expect to return to the new normal. Nothing is guarranteed. Not even TSLA.

 

[Intl Professor]

Yes, caviar and salmon get old pretty quick.

Never with shots of subfreezing Stolichnaya. In appreciation after she completed her degree, a grad student from Iran once gave me 3 Pounds! of Baluga which two others and I worked at.

As a precaution we started at carpet level on the floor. I had no memory of how I got to where I woke up.

 

[HG Wells]

A word to the wise about having multiple accounts.
I have 5 accounts. Made money in 2, broke even in one, and lost a little in two.

Did not try to do anything different in any of the accounts.
I find I spend 90% of my time on the first two. The others get very few trades.
Just too lazy I guess.

 

[MP3Mike]

the only thin I don't get is why is shanghai expanding, and GF1 still "silent"? it's still 1/3 of the max size.

Because they figured out how to be more space efficient at GF1. Look at what they said they would be doing in 2020:

Cell output of 35 GWh/yr. Hmm. Isn't that about what they are up to now with only 1/3 of GF1 built? And on top of that they are making motors at GF1 that were never planned for. So they were able to get way more than originally panned out of the GF1 space.

 

[StealthP3D]

View attachment 535466

I wanted to compare the revenue ramp of Tesla with that of the early days of Ford motor company but all I could find was production #'s (not revenue). Because Ford relentlessly lowered the price of the Model T as production volumes grew, it's not a good comparison. But from my rough estimation, it looks like Tesla is ramping even more quickly than Henry Ford did as the automobile took over from the horse and buggy. A lot more quickly!:

 

[Words of HABIT]

Tesla and the "Big" Auto will be presenting their highly anticipated F20 Q1 results this week.

Since Tesla is both manufacturer and seller, Tesla only reports a car "sold" and books profit once the car is delivered to the new car owner and all the paper work is signed. Very important point when comparing financials to that of "Big" Auto.

All other Auto manufacturers are only the manufacturer and they sell to their Dealer network which in turn sell the car to the new car owner. All other Auto manufactures report a car "sold" and book profit once the car is delivered only to their Dealer network. Their F20 Q1 do not account for a substantial amount of cars not having reached their final new owner destination. Their financial results will be horrendous (Ford is anticapating $600 million loss) however these losses will get much bigger in Q2 as the near shut down of all but essential services and far less people driving will make it challenging for Dealers to sell the backlog of cars they have already purchased from their manufacturer. My local VW Dealer (photo) has over 350 cars on their lot. That's over $12 million in unsold inventory on just one Dealer lot. VW has thousands of Dealers World wide. The adjacent BMW Dealer lot has well over 600 cars including many parked in adjacent overflow lots. Many Big Auto manufacturers will go bankrupt and bankruptcy of their Dealers will be the canaries in their coal mine.

 

[StealthP3D]

For any new TMC viewers posters, remember, in general for stock market investing only 10% of retail investors will come out on top, even on a stock like TSLA. Most are unable for various reasons to hold through turmoil. Most retail investors by far will lose money. Please be careful.

That's just false unless you limit it to day-trading or frequent trading. Buy and hold investors do very well on average, and if they only hold stocks that beat the indexes, then they beat the indexes.

For most retail investors, the problem happens when they start trading in/out of their positions based on changes in the share price or recent news/analyst upgrades/downgrades.

But thanks for your concern.