Mike Smith
Active Member
You obviously know I didn't realize he's no longer CEO so I'm not sure why you're 'truly struggling' to understand my post.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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You obviously know I didn't realize he's no longer CEO so I'm not sure why you're 'truly struggling' to understand my post.
mickificki
Member
OT:
that extrapolation did give me pause but I believe Cali, Norway and Sweden performed random sampling and found higher incidences of covid, many of whom were asymptomatic. Taking this to covid thread.
Yes, I know, but not everyone knows, so it comes of as inaccurate. I felt like a bit of @Fact Checking would be beneficial, since it would not be fair or accurate to portray a 20 year veteran that did put an end to haggling in his dealerships as a Paycheck Protection Program embezzler.
Let's elevate the quality of sources and thinking in this thread and not draw quick conclusions...
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Is this what you meant to say, or is there a typo or word missing ("not"?) in this sentence?
I'd like that gap down so I could buy tomorrow too, but isn't the positive sentiment for the earnings call a better reason to buy calls than the slightly lower cost we'd get from negative sentiment?
What's that sound? SN4 passing its cryo test for SpaceX? A good omen to start the week.
Bring on TSLA earnings. I'm stoked, and not even for the financials. I'm as confident as I've been in a long time that the future for both companies is bright.
Have a great week, all.
Bring on TSLA earnings. I'm stoked, and not even for the financials. I'm as confident as I've been in a long time that the future for both companies is bright.
Have a great week, all.
Regarding the opening of Tesla’s Fremont factory...
Is it possible to employ safety measures and work practices that minimize and/or mitigate the transmission risks associated with covid-19?
Is Tesla doing so in China?
Can those same precautions be utilized at the Fremont Plant?
I believe they can and should; I also believe they should present a compelling/convincing argument—showing how they can work safely.
Is it possible to employ safety measures and work practices that minimize and/or mitigate the transmission risks associated with covid-19?
Is Tesla doing so in China?
Can those same precautions be utilized at the Fremont Plant?
I believe they can and should; I also believe they should present a compelling/convincing argument—showing how they can work safely.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Nobody really knows how the numbers will look since there are no comparable quarters. We don't have good visibility into how expenses were impacted as Coronavirus shut everything down or how many of the cars produced were able to be delivered. As a general principle, the market loves to fool people so I don't put much credence on sentiment as far as future stock prices are concerned. For that reason, I would rather have a low price on the options to decrease risk and increase the potential return should the sentiment be wrong. For options to have a favorable payout, the market needs to wrong. And the more wrong, the better.
On average, options are not a good value. That's how the market makers rake in the profits. I only play options when there is a clear opportunity, a large disparity between perception and reality. Buying and holding is the proven way to grow wealth.
Been musing about autopilot after seeing the most recent Karpathy presentation.
Here is the question I would love to ask Andrej because a lot rides on the answer.
"Give what you have now learned about solving the FSD problem in the general case since Tesla locked down the hardware (sensors and HW3) are you still comfortable that the Neural Net and processing power of HW 3 has the capacity to handle all the features required for FSD?"
I hope the answer to this is still 'Yes'. Awesome if 'Yes' big problem if 'No'. To my knowledge Tesla has given no indication of a 'No' but from Andrej's few talks I sense the nets are bigger than they originally anticipated and they have a number of features to go.
What does give me confidence is that they seem to be moving much of the algorithmic code (C++) in to the nets if they can. They would not do that if they did not feel they had space to train the remaining features (unless the C++ is not up to the task).
Seems clear there will be very different nets based on broad geography (NA, Europe, China, Australia,...).
Would also love to see a list of remaining features.
Here is the question I would love to ask Andrej because a lot rides on the answer.
"Give what you have now learned about solving the FSD problem in the general case since Tesla locked down the hardware (sensors and HW3) are you still comfortable that the Neural Net and processing power of HW 3 has the capacity to handle all the features required for FSD?"
I hope the answer to this is still 'Yes'. Awesome if 'Yes' big problem if 'No'. To my knowledge Tesla has given no indication of a 'No' but from Andrej's few talks I sense the nets are bigger than they originally anticipated and they have a number of features to go.
What does give me confidence is that they seem to be moving much of the algorithmic code (C++) in to the nets if they can. They would not do that if they did not feel they had space to train the remaining features (unless the C++ is not up to the task).
Seems clear there will be very different nets based on broad geography (NA, Europe, China, Australia,...).
Would also love to see a list of remaining features.
I was talking about sentiment for the ER. The ups and downs over the next 3 days before ER are less of the concern. That being said, I am planning to wait for MMD for tomorrow and Tuesday for buying the calls. Might as well try and get the lowest price for the day!
Futures are way up for tomorrow. I hope you get a price you like but I also hope we shoot up before earnings. They shot us down before delivery report and it might have hurt us from going higher. But it will all work out! Main thing is securing a good earnings
Agreed. I already have my long term stock which falls into the HODL category. I held it through the low of $180 last year, and the high of 968 and another low of 360. Those shares don't get sold or risked. Added significantly more with profits made on options over the last 6 months.
But that does not stop me from playing the options game short term. I am hugely bullish about the ER this quarter, my gut feeling is that the market is underestimating Tesla for 1Q. The Fremont factory and other factory shutdowns only really impacted Tesla for 1 week for production, and likely 2 weeks for delivery. Further, the comparison of 1Q2020 will be with 1Q2019 - which frankly should be easy to beat. So, there is opportunity here, the only question is - Is it as large as after the 3Q2019 and 4Q2019 ERs
LN1_Casey
Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus
I have speculated previously, but the short answer is, there is a lot they can do to minimise risk...
I would expect they can take what they did in China, and even improve on it...
At Fremont they are starting from a position of knowing what worked in China and having had more time to think about it plan and acquire the necessary resources..
For example one suggestion I had was perspex screens between some work stations...
I'm no handyman, but even I could construct a perspex screen on wheels in around 4 hours, installation time 5 seconds.
These could just order or make 100 of these, in bulk they would cost no more than $10-$20 each..
Then there are the more obvious things like checks, masks , gloves...etc.
Ameliorate
Member
Just FYI, options priced for a huge move. Might be fun 
Than you, indeed, missed a "not", and now can't edit, hope this can be corrected somehow
Thanks very much Stealth, appreciated.
My YouTube Channel started as a test to check it out and regular videos are just online a few months ago now and since I had zero experience doing a video I consider myself still learning and improving. Its an incredible amount of work to do a good video though and at start it was almost a week and I am now down to about a day to do one. My highest respect for all Youtuber who have subscribers in the 6 digits.
Its great to hear you like my videos about Tesla and I received a lot of positive feedback at Youtube, Twitter and Patreon too. Looks like my haters that follow, insult and harass me since years at Twitter have not figured it out yet. Some of the trolls following and harassing me are amazingly long term focussed and I really ask myself if anyone is paying them. I likely will never figure out.
My YouTube motivation is to use a different media to get my message out and while I continue writing articles at Clean Technica it was intended to approach a different audience and it develops now also content wise in a different interesting direction.
To get to now almost 200 subscribers took me about 5 weeks I would say and I am surprised myself how slow it goes but it seems even with content about Tesla a lot of people tell me to be unique, different and a great addition to other channels it may have a lot to do with having reach and the ability to have connections.
To have a true impact on the messaging around Tesla a channel would need IMO to be in the 5 digit subscribers at least. I believe in good content therefore I will work on it as well as improve the quality to attract a broader audience but may need better multiplication and thats not easy to achieve.
With the comment from Elon yesterday on my article, one of many he made over the years the people watching the associated video increased nicely but at the end of the day its all about brining good content out for a longer period I believe.
With Tesla there is so much to talk, allays and conclude about and I am right now writing an article about the amazing casting structure they manufacture for the Model Y and what its implications are for the business. 2 other videos and articles are forming in my head which will complete the 7 series. With this weeks ER there will be a ton to be said about financials and I may write about that as well.
Quality is king I believe and I appreciate anybody who wants to check my channel out if there is something valuable.
My main focus will remain everything about Tesla but I may also do more about the German Automakers as its interesting to see where they develop into.
Warm welcome to everybody who likes my work has followed me here or has discovered me as a new addition.
If you want to support my YouTube channel consider to like or dislike and write a comment as every engagement is used from the algorithms and creates more reach.
Since my time is now very much stretched I do have have the opportunity to do as much here at TMC compared to the past but sneak in from time to time reading and consider this board extremely important and valuable to discuss Tesla.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Here are the Top 20 movers (sorted by Implied Volatility) from @OMillionaires! on Twitter
Code:
TCKR Implied Move
$WW 16.40%
$DXCM 16.30%
$PII 15.70%
$HOG 15.40%
$IRBT 15.10%
$TSLA 15.00%
$PAYC 14.90%
$ABMD 14.60%
$AAL 13.60%
$TWTR 13.40%
$URI 13.30%
$BA 13.00%
$TRU 12.40%
$WDC 12.20%
$HAS 12.10%
$MGM 11.90%
$FEYE 11.80%
$ALGN 11.70%This implies a +/- $110 move for TSLA vs Friday's closing price of $725, or a range of $615 to $835 after the earnings call.
My experience is these technical indicators tend to come true in the short term, although not necessarily in the DIRECTION you'd prefer.
Cheers!
Didn't you see all the pictures and videos posted previously from China? Sanitizing hand and glove stations used hourly on the assembly line, individual eating areas, disinfectant spraying, etc.
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