Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

He said they sell by bait and switch, which is fraudulent. Any company which is selling the majority of their product by fraud is by definition unethical. Therefore there is nothing wrong with my claim that he called Tesla unethical and fraudulent.

That's why I said he "didn't quite" say that. Because he used a modifier calling them "almost unethical". Yes, it's a fine distinction but words matter. Regardless, the guy is despicable.

 

[StealthP3D]

I am waiting to pick up some call options for the ER. So just checking in on the sentiment here - looking great!

I don't know. If I was planning to buy calls tomorrow, I would want a gap down on open followed by a further sell-off. I would want negative sentiment here for the highest potential return on my investment.

 

[Singuy]

Well, I don't like the guy either however the video you linked doesn't include him calling Tesla unethical and fraudulent. At least not quite. He says Autopilot is over-promising in an "almost unethical" manner and that he doesn't think there is another retailer in America that could get away with the "bait and switch" method with which Tesla sold the "$35,000 Model 3".

Whether Tesla is over-promising in an "almost unethical" way is debatable. Personally, I think it's pretty damn obvious that Autopilot is a work in progress and the milestones are estimated, not absolute.

Of course, he's full of crap on the "bait and switch" comment because the Model 3 was advertised as "starting at $35,000" and every other automaker doing business in America uses the same hard to find, bare-bones, low "starting at" price for a stripped-down model. And Tesla DID deliver on the $35,000 model for those reservationists who wanted to wait for the shortest range model. He would only have a point, and a tenuous one at that, if the deposit money was not fully refundable. But it was. So he's just another wacky Tesla FUDster.

So many ways Tesla under promised on the 35000 version since all of them come with vegan seats and pano roof and the ability to upgrade to 250 miles worth of range plus heated seats.

 

[MC3OZ]

So many ways Tesla under promised on the 35000 version since all of them come with vegan seats and pano roof and the ability to upgrade to 250 miles worth of range plus heated seats.

I think Tesla wants to get the 35K Model 3 back on menu as a profitable car when they can and it is important to do that.

That comes from "the saving of pennies", depreciation of plant and equipment, and mostly from reducing the cost of battery packs.

So I would characterise the 35K Model 3 as delayed rather than abandoned, the reason for that is Plan A didn't work and Plan B is a longer process.

The reason the 35K model is important, is eventually tap demand at that price point,... there is a significant additional pool of demand available if Tesla can tap it.. I think it may be needed when Model Y is fully ramped, if they intend to keep Model 3 production at 7K per week in Fremont...

My only reservation is the capacity of Fremont and the demand for Model Y, circumstances may dictate Tesla makes fewer Model 3s.

 

[StealthP3D]

Always a special day to get a direct feedback from Elon on one of my articles and the first comment on my 5th video

Elon Musk on Twitter

7 Reasons Why Tesla Will Benefit From The Crisis — #5: Pace Of Innovation (New Video) | CleanTechnica

You have great videos Alex! I'm surprised you only have 183 YouTube subscribers with such great content.

Yes, I know this is your first year with YouTube but would have thought TMC members would have already pushed you above that! Show Alex some love so he can keep producing great content!

 

[Artful Dodger]

So many ways Tesla under promised on the 35000 version since all of them come with vegan seats and pano roof and the ability to upgrade to 250 miles worth of range plus heated seats.

... plus standard equipment including Autopilot (formerly a $2K option). Tesla WAY overdelivered on the $35K Model 3.

 

[vikings123]

I strongly doubt that Tesla would call back employees early if the Q1 numbers aren't going to be impressive because it would make them look too desperate. This is an obvious projection of strength.

I could not agree more with your prediction for an impressive Q1 ER. I’m not sure I understand the correlation between the factory reopening and connection to Q1 results though. Can you care to elaborate? Are you saying the projection of strength is about demand and guidance for the rest of 2020?

If anything I think it is an indication that they are getting ahead of the game for Q2.

 

[JRP3]

i never thought i would say this, but we need more than one thread.
short term TSLA-less than one month .
medium term TSLA-one -6 months
long term TSLA-greater than 6 months

We have more than one thread. This is the general thread.

 

[Singuy]

... plus standard equipment including Autopilot (formerly a $2K option). Tesla WAY overdelivered on the $35K Model 3.

35k version has AP disabled.

 

[mblakele]

I think Tesla wants to get the 35K Model 3 back on menu as a profitable car when they can and it is important to do that.

That comes from "the saving of pennies", depreciation of plant and equipment, and mostly from reducing the cost of battery packs.

So I would characterise the 35K Model 3 as delayed rather than abandoned, the reason for that is Plan A didn't work and Plan B is a longer process.

The reason the 35K model is important, is eventually tap demand at that price point,... there is a significant additional pool of demand available if Tesla can tap it.. I think it may be needed when Model Y is fully ramped, if they intend to keep Model 3 production at 7K per week in Fremont...

My only reservation is the capacity of Fremont and the demand for Model Y, circumstances may dictate Tesla makes fewer Model 3s.

Expanding on your last point, I could see demand for the Model Y forcing the Model 3 SR+ off-menu — unless there's an increase in battery supply. The Model Y should have a higher ASP, and it would make sense to let demand for the higher-priced trims soak up as much of the battery supply as possible. In an extreme case the performance trim might be the only readily available Model 3.

 

[MP3Mike]

So I would characterise the 35K Model 3 as delayed rather than abandoned, the reason for that is Plan A didn't work and Plan B is a longer process.

It certainly isn't abandoned as you can still buy the $35k Model 3. You just have to call them or go to a Tesla store to place the order. And it is way more car than it was supposed to be.

 

[StealthP3D]

So I would characterise the 35K Model 3 as delayed rather than abandoned, the reason for that is Plan A didn't work and Plan B is a longer process.

To be clear, Tesla already fulfilled all pre-orders for people who wanted to wait for the $35,000 Model 3. There was a $1000 "destination charge" on top of the $35K which is why the naysayers like to say it was never $35K. But guess what? The destination charge is an industry-standard that all makers charge on top of the "starting at" price.

When my wife and I shopped for a pickup in 2009, the 2010 F-150 was advertised as "starting at $17,995.00". My wife said she wanted electric doors/seats and 4X4. In order to get those two things, we were forced to buy a bunch of stuff we didn't need. We got our truck for $34.xxx.xx. That's almost double the "starting at" price which was actually a good deal for the configuration we needed because it matched employee pricing (which was thousands off MSRP). But we didn't feel like Ford had used "bait and switch" pricing because we knew what "starting at" meant.

Yes, the $35K Model 3 will return in a few years but, in the meantime, Tesla will sell all the Model 3's and Model Y's they can build at higher prices than that.

 

[MC3OZ]

Expanding on your last point, I could see demand for the Model Y forcing the Model 3 SR+ off-menu — unless there's an increase in battery supply. The Model Y should have a higher ASP, and it would make sense to let demand for the higher-priced trims soak up as much of the battery supply as possible. In an extreme case the performance trim might be the only readily available Model 3.

Assuming 35 GWh is 7K Model 3/Y per week, increasing to 50 GWh would be 10K.

 

[Eugene Ash]

Here is the CEO of Autonation calling Tesla unethical and fraudulent. Autonation just got caught taking at least $77 million from the PPP and is having to return all of it.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...illions-received-nearly-95-million-sba-funds/

I truly struggle to understand why you're posting a > 1 year old video of an old guy saying bait-and-switch.

a) he is no longer CEO
b) decision to take PPP is not his
c) he was complimentary of Tesla's progress in other interviews, especially at the time of model 3 ramp.

What was your point?

 

[FrankSG]

I strongly doubt that Tesla would call back employees early if the Q1 numbers aren't going to be impressive because it would make them look too desperate. This is an obvious projection of strength.

Strongly disagree with this. Elon would not do or not do something just to look better to others, unless perhaps it helps transition the world to sustainability or establish a Mars colony, but I don't think that applies here.

 

[StealthP3D]

I could not agree more with your prediction for an impressive Q1 ER. I’m not sure I understand the correlation between the factory reopening and connection to Q1 results though. Can you care to elaborate? Are you saying the projection of strength is about demand and guidance for the rest of 2020?

If anything I think it is an indication that they are getting ahead of the game for Q2.

As you say, it's an aggressive start to Q2. I don't think they would be projecting such strength if they were about to release disappointing numbers - they would be more cautiously tip-toeing through the tulips. But it's just a gut feeling.

 

[mickificki]

@Prunesquallor
And still, you failed to answer the question. Exactly _what_ is the “boarderline hoax”
notwithstanding, you are _not_ whom I asked the question

 

[StealthP3D]

Strongly disagree with this. Elon would not do or not do something just to look better to others, unless perhaps it helps transition the world to sustainability or establish a Mars colony, but I don't think that applies here.

I'm not trying to say it's a pre-planned, logical "cause and effect" as I stated it. Elon doesn't agonize over decisions and plan them out in a thoughtful way based on imperial logic, he's capable of making snap decisions and he bases them on the totality of information at his disposal and what his gut tells him to do. That simply means he's human and the current situation will affect his decisions.

 

[StealthP3D]

Based on his statements, I think he failed statistics 101.

He's treating the test results as if they were randomized testing on the whole population (instead of the testing being primarily focussed on those who had reason to believe they had been exposed). This causes his estimated total cases to be crazy high and his projected death rate to be woefully low.

Also, he's using his current number of estimated cases and deaths that have already happened (without counting those who will die in the next few weeks) to estimate an overall death rate.

I have plenty of respect for emergency room physicians but that does not make them good epidemiologists.

 

[Ocelot]

Oh, please! The Mod did not go astray by making a separate thread for discussing the intricacies of COVID-19 - that was just plain common sense. The mistake was to treat some of our most valued contributors in a disrespectful manner.



Huh? 1/2 year? You have a strange definition of what constitutes the beginning of "long-term".

Oh please, what?
The thread on sars was not made initially to debate intricacies. It was felt that the virus would not impact stock, pretended to be debated, and delegated to its own thread. Censored if you will.


Conspiracy theory?

Many on here have spoken up before for moderators comments, or perceived flexing not just for whom you consider valued contributors but for all contributors. Where you speaking up then?


As for 6 months long term, it’s a definition for what’s happening now that could affect stock price post six months. A suggestion. But feel free to keep up the pedantic nit picking, ....oh wait what were you talking about by members being disrespectful to others?