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There is a demand problem. Too many people want these cars and Tesla can't build them fast enough. It is a good problem to have. ;)

Also using the inclusion or exclusion of winky faces and whether a string of words are used in a post is an unusual investment strategy. But hey have at it.

I find it helpful to read @Krugerrand as having an arid sense of humor. Drier than dry.

(NOTE: I like dry humor, seriously)
 
Gali talks to Jordan from The Limiting Factor. Jordan always provides some good info.

Points made by The Limiting Factor guy interviewed by Gali:

Significantly increasing production is the #1 issue at stake.

Why produce batteries in house? Capitalize on synergies between making and packing cells. No more need to wall off Panasonic areas away from proprietary Tesla activities. Integrating several different new technologies will be easier if Tesla controls the entire process. Bottom line: Producing batteries in house allows Tesla to completely optimize vertical integration, which is something they feel very strongly about. They will not suddenly dump Panasonic.

Dry battery electrode (DBE) technology reduces the size and toxicity of the manufacturing process. It also (supposedly) doubles battery life. Jeff Dahn's technology achieves 1 million miles with the current wet slurry process. Adding DBE to Dahn's tech may take battery life to well beyond 1 million miles. Perhaps beyond 4,000 cycles.

DBE will eliminate additional degradation resulting from charging to 100% and going down to near zero.

DBE will reduce the entire battery line size by 10-20%. The main benefit is it will multiply the speed of the line.

He expects a 20-30% increase in energy density which changes the physics involved and will likely result in a pack redesign. No indication they will move away from cylindrical cells.

DBE should increase charging speed. He did not quantify.

He expects recycling to be discussed but had no insights.

The major points are covered in the first 25 mins. The last 20 mins aren't as productive.
 
Pretty high bandwidth conversation. It is time likely better spent on this than on some other stuff related to Tesla especially the first hour.

Lol, I just listened to Gali congratulating himself: (43:35)

"I think it's you know like Elon Musk said on the conference call the Youtubers and Bloggers are figuring this out and this is the cutting edge of research"

Yeah, that's what Gali said on his channel after the call, alright. But what ELON actually said during the Jan 2020 Earnings call was this:

Elon Musk -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

"Well, I guess, we don't have to -- I do think that a lot of retail investors actually have deeper and more accurate insights than many of the big institutional investors and certainly better insight than many of the analysts. It seems like if people really looked at some of the smart retail investor analysts and what some of the smart smaller retail investors predicted about the future of Tesla, you would probably get the highest accuracy and remarkable insight from some of those predictions."​

Notice where Elon says Youtubers? Yeah, he doesn't. But that's what Gali heard, and the story he keeps telling himself (and his listeners). Funny or sad? You decide. I've decided to chuckle. :p

Just to be fair, my prediction for Tesla Battery Day is what I call the "G-Cube". It's archived and accesible in the thread "Moderators' Choice: Posts of Particular Merit" #37 from July 29, 2019.

G-Cube is my answer to this question from @ReflexFunds here:

"I haven't seen much discussion on when people are expecting Pickup to hit production, and exactly what year Elon's 2TWh battery manufacturing target will correspond to. Any thoughts?"

So you all can take ur turns now: What will battery day bring? Predict away! :cool:

Cheers!
 
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Lol, I just listened to Gali congratulating himself: (43:35)

"I think it's you know like Elon Musk said on the conference call the Youtubers and Bloggers are figuring this out and this is the cutting edge of research"

Yeah, that's what Gali said on his channel after the call, alright. But what ELON actually said during the Jan 2020 Earnings call was this:

Elon Musk -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

"Well, I guess, we don't have to -- I do think that a lot of retail investors actually have deeper and more accurate insights than many of the big institutional investors and certainly better insight than many of the analysts. It seems like if people really looked at some of the smart retail investor analysts and what some of the smart smaller retail investors predicted about the future of Tesla, you would probably get the highest accuracy and remarkable insight from some of those predictions."​

Notice where Elon says Youtubers? Yeah, he doesn't. But that's what Gali heard, and the story he keeps telling himself (and his listeners). Funny or sad? You decide. I've decided to chuckle. :p

Just to be fair, my prediction for Tesla Battery Day is what I call the "G-Cube". It's archived and accesible in the thread "Moderators' Choice: Posts of Particular Merit" #37 from July 29, 2019.

G-Cube is my answer to this question from @ReflexFunds

"I haven't seen much discussion on when people are expecting Pickup to hit production, and exactly what year Elon's 2TWh battery manufacturing target will correspond to. Any thoughts?"

So you all can take ur turns now: What will battery day bring? Predict away! :cool:

Cheers!

I like your thinking here:-

Each G-Cube must produce cash flow which will pay for another G-Cube after 2 yrs operation. Technically that's a CAGR of only 41% but hey this is an estimate (the main point is that this is the exponential part of Elon's vision)
.

I posted similar thoughts in the Battery Day thread. Tesla's battery ramp is going to be self funding once it gets up and running.

On the video itself, I think Gali asked good questions, he is good in this interviewer mode, not so good when he simply analyses things and publishes his conclusions...

People who are wrong on Tesla, or any aspect of Tesla, don't dig deep enough, Gali is sometimes in that category.

On the other video with Rob interviewing Alex, there was the question of whether Tesla could eat into the luxury sedan sales market which is 75% dominated by a few brands (BMW, Audi, Mercedes). Alex is nudging towards being more optimistic.

My experience of people from a general Chinese ethnic background, makes me more optimistic. Whilst sometimes Chinese are into status and displays of wealth, they are also sometimes frugal and canny shoppers. And not Chinese all are the same, or want the same things.

IMO some potential future in parents law will be impressed by the fact that their daughter's suitor made a smart choice of a Tesla, which is good value for money, made in a factory built by Chinese construction workers, and made by Chinese factory workers.

Alex is conservative about the upside for Tesla in China.
 
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Except for Deferred Tax Accounting, Cost Accounting may be the most difficult topic on the CPA exam (IMHO).
@Big Dog is correct on the accounting. I have a post on Cost Accounting in the Moderator's Choice thread (page 3 - I'm not to savy to link to it) but I will copy/paste here a relevant section:
(Fairy Godfather: Moderators' Choice: Posts of Particular Merit.)

Inventory vs COGS: Cost at the factory are classified as Material, Labor and Overhead (some fixed, some variable) and they all get capitalized to Inventory as the car is being produced. So all these costs sit on the balance sheet as Inventory until the moment the car is sold (ownership transfers to customer) and then at that point the Inventory gets released to Cost of Goods Sold (COGS). This allows for the matching of Revenues with COGS at the moment of sale.
So the cash flow is negatively impacted by holding the inventory more than profits.
 
SF Chronicle reporting Tesla is preparing to open Fremont shortly in possible violation of SIP order. I don't subscribe so can't read the bulk of the article but they let you read a little which reveals the gist of it.

Tesla said to be gearing up to restart Fremont car manufacturing, in possible shelter-in-place violation

Use reader mode, or try turning off Javascript.

TL;DR — nothing much to see here, but this could fit in with the quiet reopening I suggested earlier today.

[...] Some workers returned to the company’s Fremont plant Wednesday to prepare for a planned reopening of some production lines between now and next week, according to a person familiar with factory operations who asked not to be named for fear of retaliation. [...]

The person said only a handful of employees have returned to the factory floor for now to prepare, and that additional safety measures have been put in place at the factory to guard against coronavirus transmission.

[...]

A spokeswoman for the Fremont Police Department, which is responsible for the area that includes the plant, said there were no plans to visit the site when informed by The Chronicle of reports of the partial return to work.

[...]

“We’re all sort of in a little bit of a gray area,” said department spokeswoman Geneva Bosques, referring to Gov. Gavin Newsom’s announcement this week that some retail, manufacturing, and logistics businesses would soon be allowed to operate on a limited basis if they take safety measures and local authorities approve.

Bosques acknowledged that under the current Alameda County health order, Tesla cannot operate its manufacturing line but added that “having a small team of people in there (who) are social distancing may not violate the health order.”

Officers from the Fremont Police Department made two previous visits to the factory in April and observed minimum basic operations, like maintenance, allowed under the health order. Tesla was not cited for violations, Bosques said.

[...]​
 

This is a nothing. Chinese holiday is May 1st-6th. Production stopped across a lot of the country.

Vincent on Twitter

Edit: To add on based on the actual news piece. Workers were on holiday from the 1st till the 6th and then told to come back on the 9th to start full production after the break. So a total of 3 days unplanned delay....if that's even the case.

I wouldn't be surprised if their run rate for production is ahead of schedule and Tesla is consistently putting pressure on suppliers to continue to up their pace to match. So if Tesla has originally told "X" supplier we need "this" many parts per week by May 6th which the supplier achieved.......but Tesla ramped their production side even quicker than expected and thus "X" supplier it a slight hold up....even though "X" supplier met their goal.
 
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