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I predict that overtime, Fremont continues to produce the Model S while it evolves into the primary R&D center, a place to try out what the engineers can design, not only product, but the robotics, and then mass produce somewhere else. (hello Techsus) CA leadership, particularly Alameda County, is very pro-union and it won't be long before that chasm gets crossed; the tent will be closed.

California is such a huge market for automobiles and energy, anyone who expects Tesla to stop producing products there will be severely disappointed. I don't see that happening in anything short of 8 years, if ever. Because California will fall into line.

Some people are making a mountain out of a molehill with respect to this latest stop-production. Don't get me wrong, I think CA is behaving very badly here and this is serious business with serious repercussions. But the fact is that Tesla had to stop production due to the a COVID-19 induced breakage of its supply chain. They continued making cars after the County tried to shut them down until they ran out of parts. Then they shut on their own accord.

The opening will likely be similar. They are already allowed to have 30% workforce on-site as long as precautions are taken. Musk will push hard and has been applying a lot of pressure in ways we don't even know about to move towards limited production (at first) and then full production. He's good at things like this and has spent the last couple of weeks laying the groundwork to make it harder for the County stand firm because they will only look increasingly foolish if they try to prevent progress towards re-opening.

Remember, while you and I were living life, engaging in premarital sex and partying, Elon Musk was studying the blade. He has a deep understanding of the Art of War and how these strange creatures called humans think and function. This is why I say people are making a mountain out of a molehill with regard to the stoppage. He will prevail as soon as the supply chain is robust enough and the optics are good enough (which is very soon). Meaning sometime in the middle of this month. Remember, Elon is not an ineffective leader who follows others while leaving a trail of blunders in his wake. He is successful for a reason and that reason has not changed.

Edit: This lawsuit, just announced, is the final blow that will get the County to cave in. I give it a week or less.
 
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lol so he is basically confirming gigatexas?View attachment 540059
one reason it was speculated Tesla hadn't finished expansion of GF1 in Nevada was the chronic shortage of workers when the economy was humming along pre-crisis. That restriction is likely to go away now even as California operations are proving problematic.
 
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I'm still a novice with trading covered calls. I do use my BFPT approach to help me determine a prices level that I believe is not sustainable for a year. So I'm selling call that are about a year out. Still pretty early in my learning curve.

I hope you are a big believer in education.

Because that might be an expensive education! ;)
 
California is such a huge market for automobiles and energy, anyone who expects Tesla to stop producing products there will be severely disappointed.

With respect, why do you think Tesla must produce products in CA in order to sell them in CA?

Elon just tweeted that Tesla might not continue manufacturing in Fremont.
 
If the next factory’s in Texas, what about the franchise law?
I would suspect that the franchise law is effectively dead. As soon as the Texas Legislature meets, it will be official. (Not that it matters all that much. On-line ordering and direct delivery has made it essentially moot).
 
Elon moves around the country with little thought but wonder how many of it’s tech staff will be willing to pick up and move their lives/homes to Texas or Nevada.

We've discussed this before but tesla moving out of California doesn't really have any bearing on teslas engineering and software development teams. Tesla will likely still have offices in the bay area, just not manufacturing. Its only the line workers that would be impacted.
 
California corporate tax rate: 8.84%

Texas corporate tax rate: 1.00%

Now no chance of getting any incentives from TX. Best not to burn your ships too soon. Workers now know they have cloudy future will start to leave.

Co. I worked for announced they were moving. Stumbled a bit and ended up taking 18 months. Lost 80% of employees by time of move.

this should solve the problem with the stock being a little high.
 
The Bay Area is becoming quite a Xi't Show.

The counties have formed a conspiracy, and set almost impossible re-opening goals.
Possible upcoming actions:
1. Admit they are wrong and modify the opening criteria.
2. Extend the shutdown forever.
3. Legal warfare.
4. "disappear" Elon.

I called it last night, happened faster than I expected.
Looks like option 3 was picked!
 
Regarding Alameda County:
The guidance offered was minimal and they declined any specific County approval process, if my reading is correct.
Unlike many jurisdictions it seems they have been unwilling to have joint planning for prudent reopening by any category of business.
They do make several explicit exceptions to their orders;
"Businesses may also operate to manufacture distributed energy resource components, like solar panels."

For interested Tesla investors it might be worthwhile to ready the entirely of the Alameda County rules:
http://www.acphd.org/2019-ncov.aspx

They permit some related manufacturing, construction, auto dealerships services and sales, so long as vehicles are delivered to the purchaser.

It becomes quite interesting that most Tesla-related activities are permitted. Tesla's own published opening procedures are quite obviously well more extensive that those included in the Alameda County order.

Tesla is the second largest direct taxpayer in Alameda County, just after PG&E;
https://treasurer.acgov.org/treasurer-assets/docs/top10secure18-19.pdf

Despite having ~10,000 employees in the county (almost all the East Bay Tesla employees work in Alameda County);
https://www.bizjournals.com/sanfran...2019/10/18/top-employers-in-the-east-bay.html
and the largest non-health care one in the East Bay,

It seems Alameda County really does not want Tesla to be there.

Regardless of that history one would be foolish not to imagine that Tesla will begin a process of systematically reducing their dependence on Fremont. After all it hardly would have been high on a location list had it not been lying fallow after first GM, then NUMMI, then Toyota directly gave up on it. The recent events will inevitably speed taht process.

Perhaps that is actually what Alameda County wants. I wonder what the City of Fremont or the State of California thinks?

Perhaps one might reflect that when California had the chance to allow vehicles bought for use outside the Sates be delivered with temporary license, without Sales tax the State declined. Of course that would have brought tourist dollars and increased employment to process deliveries. Otherwise it would have cost nothing. It could have benefited
some buyers of Asian vehicles imported through California that could have a holiday trip, and quite a few Canadian buyers too. Things like that just make just a trifle more negative vibration, not a big deal but...

California taxes, County/City real estate and employment taxes, highly bureaucratic tax filing and compliance systems.

Pretty soon that makes California businesses gradually move their growing business elsewhere. Slowly, almost invisibly but inexorably.

This situation does place some more nails in the coffin. Tesla already does significant design and manufacturing elsewhere. That is accelerating rapidly in Germany (two Munich-based friends, materials engineers, are now being interviewed following headhunting), China (I have a photo of that recruiting image of a new small car) and elsewhere, as we'll soon see with GF-5. ok, maybe bigger than G.

California manufacturing will not disappear, but it is rapidly becoming less critical. Does anybody imagine that other major businesses are not growing more skittish.

Not long ago the South Bay was the epicenter of North American operations for non-US firms. Nissan, Toyota, Mazda, Hyundai, Isuzu- big and small they were mostly in and around Torrance. One by one they've decamped elsewhere bit by bit with Texas a big beneficiary. One can list names, dates and functions, but i doubt it's necessary.

Aerospace was a Los Angeles center too. Hughes, Douglas (then most McDonnell Douglas), Lockheed, Northrup Grumman. Northrup was last to leave, so Palos Verdes had a temporary real estate glut, lucky for me since I bought a house I could not have afforded from a departing Northrup exec. SpaceX began by mopping up all that talent that wanted to stay, giving Elon a taste for bargains that he repeated with Fremont.

This is a long post that may seem off topic, but I think it is central to longer term Tesla value. The longer term effect of Alameda County recalcitrance will to speed the transition to more efficiency and higher margins. It will take time.
Either Elon was reading your post or you're a fortune teller.
 
Elon moves around the country with little thought but wonder how many of it’s tech staff will be willing to pick up and move their lives/homes to Texas or Nevada.

Very easy for them to still keep a presence in silicon valley for software engineers and autopilot team.

I doubt they would move the Palo Alto office but it may no longer be the HQ.

Anyway where is Gavin? Is he seriously willing to risk this for California? He never should have let local counties take control. It needed to be a statewide decision.

Having each individual county control this just creates chaos.
 
U think alameda will cave? They will double down. Watch.

never ever a dull moment for Tesla. Wow. Who needs Days of Our Lives when we’ve got Tesla?

They will cave. But Elon is smart so he will offer them an out where it looks like a happy compromise was reached. Some friction will remain but the cars will be coming off the production lines and California production line workers will be back to work.
 
Elon saying they are filing a lawsuit against Alameda county.

Elon Musk on Twitter

My experience in working in dangerous environments, has shown that there are always methods to mitigate hazards — Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) and technologies — grounded in common sense. Unfortunately corrupt bureaucrats value political expediency over practical solutions. Tesla’s most powerful weapon may well be public opinion.
 
The bureaucrats might double down, but the politicians will think about the out of work former Tesla employees and how they might vote the next time. Good thing I loaded up on the popcorn yesterday.

Remember, the bureaucrats work for the elected officials. So voters can hold the elected officials accountable for what their department heads do. It's time for the elected officials to step in and fix this.