Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mo City]

TSLA price action very disappointing today... is anybody paying attention to this?

I'm happy with it ~800 for now.

IMO, the next major move up occurs when the market realizes Q3/Q4 will be insane. That could happen when Q2 deliveries are announced or beforehand as rumors precede fact.

 

[Curt Renz]

Benzinga - 13 minutes ago: Panasonic Hopes To Recharge Tesla Battery Partnership, Eyes Gigafactory Expansion

 

[PeterJA]

Jonas is going a great job of keeping expectations low, while sacrificing any remaining shreds of his reputation among informed investors. His neutral rating on TSLA is allegedly because...

Analyst Adam Jonas points to China risk...​

You mean the factory that expects 4k cars/week by June? And is building Phase 2 even faster than Phase 1?

capital spending needs,​

You mean with positive cash flow, oversubscribed capital raises, and $8B in the bank?

a Fremont unionization wildcard​

Very wild, Adam.

and short-term demand pressures as reasons to be at least slightly cautious on Tesla.​

With their highest backlog in history? (according to Q1 ER)

Jonas also weighs in on competition from big tech names with a fresh angle.​

Do tell.

"We often hear from investors that Tesla could potentially be the Amazon of transportation. But what if Amazon is the Amazon of transportation? After all, AMZN spends nearly $40bn/year on shipping and has made some rather bold moves in controlling its own destiny in sustainable delivery, including substantial financial backing of Rivian and an order for 100k electric delivery vans to be deployed between 2021 and 2024. Admittedly, conspicuous competitive threats from large tech platforms (such as, but not limited to, AMZN, Apple, Alphabet, etc.) may take several years to come to fruition; we believe the signs of progress will be increasingly evident and that investors will pay greater attention to them."
Morgan Stanley still stuck in neutral on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha​

Let me get this straight. After years of fear-mongering about announced competition from automajors (which turned out to suck), you are now fear-mongering about unannounced, nonexistent, imaginary competition that might appear after several years?

Adam is clearly working for someone, but not the clients he sent this note to. I'm happy to profit from their ignorance by accumulating more shares, along with whomever Adam is actually working for.

 

[jerry33]

My take is that this would be big, big headline grabbing news if we were not in the middle of a pandemic. I think Uber are using the cover of the pandemic to abandon any pretence of progress on self driving while investors are not paying attention.
Sacking 25% of your wntire workforce and admitting that your current business model is unsustainable... if investors were actually paying attention they would be running, not walking towards the exits.

You would think so, but Wall Street always rewards companies for sacking employees--every time.

 

[StealthP3D]

What do you guys think about Q2? do you guys think is going to be bad and the stock will get push down significantly? I am trying to get ready for my next buying spree .

What prices did you sell at?

The FOMO is starting to run strong.

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

I do not remember any discussion of potential battery suppliers for GF Berlin. Has anyone else seen anything on this? I am not aware of existing suppliers in Europe that would be capable of meeting the volume that would be required. Perhaps the plan is that Tesla will manufacture all cells itself at GF Berlin. Maybe this will be covered in Battery Day. I am hoping that this is the case and the Model Ys produced in Berlin will have the rumoured tabless million mile cells.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Now, they're the #2 per capita vehicle manufacturer.

Market Cap.

 

[juanmedina]

What prices did you sell at?

The FOMO is starting to run strong.

I haven't sold my shares. I want to trade my shares for LEAPs at a better price (shares/price) and use my HELOC lol.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I don't see any signs of manipulation Monday/Tuesday.

Reading the wrong signs (mind the gap).

 

[mongo]

I do not remember any discussion of potential battery suppliers for GF Berlin. Has anyone else seen anything on this? I am not aware of existing suppliers in Europe that would be capable of meeting the volume that would be required. Perhaps the plan is that Tesla will manufacture all cells itself at GF Berlin. Maybe this will be covered in Battery Day. I am hoping that this is the case and the Model Ys produced in Berlin will have the rumoured tabless million mile cells.

BASF is setting up a cathode electrode materials plant near Tesla. Following Tesla, BASF also moves to Brandenburg.
One document shows a massive on site cell building at GF4 Tesla Gigafactory 4 Documents Hint at Dedicated Battery Cell Facility

 

[StealthP3D]

The argument that new factories cannot or should not be built in earthquake zones doesn’t make sense. Not one little bit.

Thanks. That helps put it into a time perspective. However, the entire West Coast is over-due for "the big one". This is a super quake bigger than anything experienced since the area was inhabited by Europeans. The San Andreas Fault is just a pesky little crack compared to the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) which was not discovered until recently. Over the last 10,000 years, the CSZ has "gone off" only 41 times, generally producing the largest kind of earthquakes known, those exceeding 9.0. That's an average interval of 243 years. The problem being, the last time it happened was 1699-1700, over 320 years ago. And longer intervals of quiet can lead to more powerful quakes. These are the type of land movement that can cause entire coastal cities to end up underwater and one event can basically deconstruct the entire coast. And, yes, it's more than 75 years "overdue". Which is quite a bit considering the average interval is 243 years.

Without straying too far into the weeds, let's just say that having your sole manufacturing plant lose power, water, sewer, natural gas and access to public roads (that can be driven on) for many months or even longer than a year is something to factor into the risk equation. I was very concerned about this over the last several years but now that Tesla production has diversified to China (and soon into Germany) it is becoming less of a major risk and more of a potential "thorn in the side". Still a major potential disruption, but survivable in a way that it would not be if Tesla was a one-trick pony.

In other words, those of us with quake concerns are not looking to the 1940's or 1950's as our measuring stick, we are looking at a timescale that pre-dates European settlement. In fact, this risk was unknown in the 1950's.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Do you think one time purchases like land in Austin and trying to build at breaknet speed are going to create headwinds for S&P 500 inclusion?

Land and long-lived capital equipment go on the Balance Sheet, not the Income Statement. The S&P Committee looks just at GAAP income, from the Income Statement.

 

[StealthP3D]

I haven't sold my shares. I want to trade my shares for LEAPs at a better price (shares/price) and use my HELOC lol.

That doesn't sound like the "buying spree" you mentioned you were planning.

 

[Steve m]

Thanks. That helps put it into a time perspective. However, the entire West Coast is over-due for "the big one". This is a super quake bigger than anything experienced since the area was inhabited by Europeans. The San Andreas Fault is just a pesky little crack compared to the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) which was not discovered until recently. Over the last 10,000 years, the CSZ has "gone off" only 41 times, generally producing the largest kind of earthquakes known, those exceeding 9.0. That's an average interval of 243 years. The problem being, the last time it happened was 1699-1700, over 320 years ago. And longer intervals of quiet can lead to more powerful quakes. These are the type of land movement that can cause entire coastal cities to end up underwater and one event can basically deconstruct the entire coast. And, yes, it's more than 75 years "overdue". Which is quite a bit considering the average interval is 243 years.

Without straying too far into the weeds, let's just say that having your sole manufacturing plant lose power, water, sewer, natural gas and access to public roads (that can be driven on) for many months or even longer than a year is something to factor into the risk equation. I was very concerned about this over the last several years but now that Tesla production has diversified to China (and soon into Germany) it is becoming less of a major risk and more of a potential "thorn in the side". Still a major potential disruption, but survivable in a way that it would not be if Tesla was a one-trick pony.

In other words, those of us with quake concerns are not looking to the 1940's or 1950's as our measuring stick, we are looking at a timescale that pre-dates European settlement. In fact, this risk was unknown in the 1950's.

The entire west coast. Not collectively. I am not an expert. But my wife is a retired USGS Geologist. I have occasionally spoken with their eq geologists.

You can't lump the west coast into one group. Each area is different. What is going on south of the Mendocino triple junction is different then what is going on north of that junction.

Eq hazards are also varied based upon the terrain you are sitting on. Liquefaction, ridge top shattering and land slides are all different issues. The point is you can build such that you survive very intense eqs.

I should mention that I was 6 miles away from the epicenter of the Loma Prieta when it went off and I was in Wellington New Zealand in Nov 2016 when NZ had its last major eq.

While we are pointing fingers don't forget the New Madrid fault that could devastate the Memphis TN to St Louis MO.

As I mentioned previously eqs aren't the only natural disaster. Major floods in Malaysia shut down a good size bit of the HDD industry a few years ago.

If you build in Tornado Alley you better expect to eventually be hit by one of them.

If you build anywhere near the Gulf Coast you better be prepared for hurricanes.

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

BASF is setting up a cathode electrode materials plant near Tesla. Following Tesla, BASF also moves to Brandenburg.
One document shows a massive on site cell building at GF4 Tesla Gigafactory 4 Documents Hint at Dedicated Battery Cell Facility

This all seems to be pointing to cell production at GF Berlin (presumably by Tesla)

 

[Jack6591]

Thanks. That helps put it into a time perspective. However, the entire West Coast is over-due for "the big one". This is a super quake bigger than anything experienced since the area was inhabited by Europeans. The San Andreas Fault is just a pesky little crack compared to the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) which was not discovered until recently. Over the last 10,000 years, the CSZ has "gone off" only 41 times, generally producing the largest kind of earthquakes known, those exceeding 9.0. That's an average interval of 243 years. The problem being, the last time it happened was 1699-1700, over 320 years ago. And longer intervals of quiet can lead to more powerful quakes. These are the type of land movement that can cause entire coastal cities to end up underwater and one event can basically deconstruct the entire coast. And, yes, it's more than 75 years "overdue". Which is quite a bit considering the average interval is 243 years.

Without straying too far into the weeds, let's just say that having your sole manufacturing plant lose power, water, sewer, natural gas and access to public roads (that can be driven on) for many months or even longer than a year is something to factor into the risk equation. I was very concerned about this over the last several years but now that Tesla production has diversified to China (and soon into Germany) it is becoming less of a major risk and more of a potential "thorn in the side". Still a major potential disruption, but survivable in a way that it would not be if Tesla was a one-trick pony.

In other words, those of us with quake concerns are not looking to the 1940's or 1950's as our measuring stick, we are looking at a timescale that pre-dates European settlement. In fact, this risk was unknown in the 1950's.

Should I sell all my real estate holdings in California?

 

[StealthP3D]

Eq hazards are also varied based upon the terrain you are sitting on. Liquefaction, ridge top shattering and land slides are all different issues. The point is you can build such that you survive very intense eqs.

I should mention that I was 6 miles away from the epicenter of the Loma Prieta when it went off and I was in Wellington New Zealand in Nov 2016 when NZ had its last major eq.

OK then, I'll defer to your expertise.

 

[StealthP3D]

OK then, I'll defer to your expertise.

But I do suspect that many "experts" will be shocked and humbled the next time the Cascadia Subduction Zone "decides" to go big.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Thanks. That helps put it into a time perspective. However, the entire West Coast is over-due for "the big one". This is a super quake bigger than anything experienced since the area was inhabited by Europeans. The San Andreas Fault is just a pesky little crack compared to the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) which was not discovered until recently. Over the last 10,000 years, the CSZ has "gone off" only 41 times, generally producing the largest kind of earthquakes known, those exceeding 9.0. That's an average interval of 243 years. The problem being, the last time it happened was 1699-1700, over 320 years ago. And longer intervals of quiet can lead to more powerful quakes. These are the type of land movement that can cause entire coastal cities to end up underwater and one event can basically deconstruct the entire coast. And, yes, it's more than 75 years "overdue". Which is quite a bit considering the average interval is 243 years.

Without straying too far into the weeds, let's just say that having your sole manufacturing plant lose power, water, sewer, natural gas and access to public roads (that can be driven on) for many months or even longer than a year is something to factor into the risk equation. I was very concerned about this over the last several years but now that Tesla production has diversified to China (and soon into Germany) it is becoming less of a major risk and more of a potential "thorn in the side". Still a major potential disruption, but survivable in a way that it would not be if Tesla was a one-trick pony.

In other words, those of us with quake concerns are not looking to the 1940's or 1950's as our measuring stick, we are looking at a timescale that pre-dates European settlement. In fact, this risk was unknown in the 1950's.

I'll copy and paste an excerpt from the interesting "The signal and the noise" from Nate Silver. Bold is mine:

The theory, developed by Charles Richter and his Caltech colleague Beno Gutenberg in 1944, is derived from empirical statistics about earthquakes. It posits that there is a relatively simple relationship between the magnitude of an earthquake and how often one occurs.
If you compare the frequencies of earthquakes with their magnitudes, you’ll find that the number drops off exponentially as the magnitude increases. While there are very few catastrophic earthquakes, there are literally millions of smaller ones — about 1.3 million earthquakes measuring between magnitude 2.0 and magnitude 2.9 around the world every year. Most of these earthquakes go undetected — certainly by human beings and often by seismometers. However, almost all earthquakes of magnitude 4.5 or greater are recorded today, however remote their location. Figure 5–3a shows the exponential decline in their frequencies, based on actual records of earthquakes from January 196429 through March 2012.

It turns out that these earthquakes display a stunning regularity when you graph them in a slightly different way. In figure 5–3b, I’ve changed the vertical axis — which shows the frequency of earthquakes of different magnitudes — into a logarithmic scale.* Now the earthquakes form what is almost exactly a straight line on the graph. This pattern is characteristic of what is known as a power-law distribution, and it is the relationship that Richter and Gutenberg uncovered.

Something that obeys this distribution has a highly useful property: you can forecast the number of large-scale events from the number of small-scale ones, or vice versa. In the case of earthquakes, it turns out that for every increase of one point in magnitude, an earthquake becomes about ten times less frequent. So, for example, magnitude 6 earthquakes occur ten times more frequently than magnitude 7’s, and one hundred times more often than magnitude 8’s.

This helped me understand more about "power laws" and exponentials, as this pattern is present in every aspect of this universe. It may be useful also to understand Tesla, like a "one of a kind" company that reaches incredible dimensions.

 

[Krugerrand]

Reading the wrong signs (mind the gap).

View attachment 542733

Dude, all I see is a bunch of rectangles, some of which have been colored in. That is all.