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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Totally agree with this, especially for Tesla.

My own read (highly subjective and personal) is that among Tesla bulls as present in this artificially self - selected group as represented here - there's no worry on that front. It seems like people here are overwhelmingly in the camp that TSLA is going up (a lot) in the short term.

EDIT: I see no particular worry here - just a lot of frustration that we're not double today's price because of manipulators.

I'm totally in the long term going up (a lot) camp - the 2012 shares I've been holding all along are still being held, with an investment hypothesis that leaves a non-zero possibility that I'll own them when I die.


Short term, I see flat to down.


I appreciate the additional perspectives. That's what I get from this forum and what I'm looking for. I'm especially looking for the reasons for the perspectives, rather than the conclusions, and you've done an excellent job of presenting those. Thank you for that @smorgasbord .
Agree with you and @smorgasbord. Near term, I'm seeing Tesla getting left behind as the sectors that have been hammered by the virus gets more inflow under the impression that the Fed will bail them out. So we're talking about airlines, cruises, GM/Ford, etc... companies with shitty balance sheet but employ a lot of people. Investors will no doubt start seeing *value* in these companies, many of which will become zombies, again. The paradigm is changing for the worse. These days I'm seeing a lot of gamblers with get rich quick schemes and games on monetary policy. 50-100% gain opportunities seems to pop up every other day.
 
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From the Christophe Barraud on Twitter above

"Zero-emission cars would be exempted from Value Added Tax."

This would be huge. That would take 20-25% of the price of a Tesla in most countries in the EU. Think about that again. 20-25% pricecut. Granted many countries have separate subsidies already that I would assume would be cancelled but those are usually in the less than 10% region so even in those countries it would mean an additional 10-15% pricecut.
 
From the Christophe Barraud on Twitter above

"Zero-emission cars would be exempted from Value Added Tax."

This would be huge. That would take 20-25% of the price of a Tesla in most countries in the EU. Think about that again. 20-25% pricecut. Granted many countries have separate subsidies already that I would assume would be cancelled but those are usually in the less than 10% region so even in those countries it would mean an additional 10-15% pricecut.

this will be removed with Giga Berlin anyway wont it?
 
Agreed. The Tesla site is ostensibly adjacent, to the immediate west of this. The water tower goes in between - east of the tower is this logistics park, and west of the Tower is the rumored Tesla area.
Hmm, yeah looks like the rail park just doing it’s own thing. Here is looking the other direction. I did not see anything going on in that direction and the photos I had seen were of the rail construction.
37A13682-BA6F-4BBB-8D29-A39758B7EBB9.png
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VAT is like 20% on new cars in the EU, so this great for individual car purchases. If it passes this will very much support green vehicles, but not effect business purchases.

Price action lately looks like we are near fair value at the moment, hard to say what effect battery day will have.

If we have a "Broken Windows" presentation on battery day where something goes terrible, or Elon appears less than a leader we could see a small drop. Hopefully they keep the steel balls locked up and don't take any "bonehead questions"

There needs to be revolutionary content on battery day to move the stock, since the million mile battery cat is out of the bag (sorry @Krugerrand ) to get a rise.

The combination of V2G, million mile batteries, Stationary storage megapacks making VPP and Tesla being a Utility will

What we really need I think is for Tesla to execute on the Robotaxi Elontime. We also need Elon to not use his large social leverage to intentionally or unintentionally do something to drop the SP. I am convinced that he certainly know how his actions will affect SP and does them in spite of that. (i.e. Share price too high imo)
 
VAT Tax exemption is great for cars bought by private persons. About 2/3 of all new vehicles are bought by businesses.

Neuzulassungen von Pkw in Deutschland - Haltergruppen 2019 | Statista

This is further skewed with the more expensive cars. Businesses do not pay VAT (it is refunded to them in full).

So this - if it comes to fruition - is a two edged sword.

Looks to me to be only positive. If business currently pay no VAT or have it refunded they wont be effected regardless.

However the 1/3 of consumer purchases will have this 20% VAT eliminated, that should be a benefit. I fail to see the second edge?
 
From the Christophe Barraud on Twitter above

"Zero-emission cars would be exempted from Value Added Tax."

This would be huge. That would take 20-25% of the price of a Tesla in most countries in the EU. Think about that again. 20-25% pricecut. Granted many countries have separate subsidies already that I would assume would be cancelled but those are usually in the less than 10% region so even in those countries it would mean an additional 10-15% pricecut.
If this happens, Tesla can sell the whole production only in the Netherlands, this is the best news this year, it it happens (still politics....)