Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Highway2Heel]

Bought more.

Paraphrasing Jim Cramer on his show last week,

“Not too long from now we’ll look back and say, ‘it was only just $800.’ “

 

[TespaceX]

I got out of my Jun 28’ 825 calls today at 35% loss. Just can’t stand it anymore. This was my play for the Battery Day which should already have happened. But nobody is talking about Battery Day anymore, because it’s become an insignificant event. All that’s left for Elon is to confirm what’s already been covered on YouTube over and over again. Million mile battery pack is already the new standard with several companies having announced it.

Honestly, Battery Day was made significant and possibly is being made insignificant as you say only on this board. I wouldn’t make investment decisions based on the sentiment of commenters on an online board.

 

[Tslynk67]

I got out of my Jun 28’ 825 calls today at 35% loss. Just can’t stand it anymore. This was my play for the Battery Day which should already have happened. But nobody is talking about Battery Day anymore, because it’s become an insignificant event. All that’s left for Elon is to confirm what’s already been covered on YouTube over and over again. Million mile battery pack is already the new standard with several companies having announced it.

When did you buy the $825's, were they already ITM at that moment?

Yeah, it's frustrating, but without the volume this is going to continue until EOQ.

I think the difference with Battery Day versus any other company, is that Tesla will actually be making these batteries, not just making a PPT about future plans.

Obviously Elon is totally absorbed with Space X this week, and rightly so. Maybe a successful launch tomorrow will bring some cheer, but doubt it will move $TSLA much.

 

[Jack6591]

I got out of my Jun 28’ 825 calls today at 35% loss. Just can’t stand it anymore. This was my play for the Battery Day which should already have happened. But nobody is talking about Battery Day anymore, because it’s become an insignificant event. All that’s left for Elon is to confirm what’s already been covered on YouTube over and over again. Million mile battery pack is already the new standard with several companies having announced it.

In my view, battery day’s significance is centered in production increases and cost benefits — leveraging electric vehicles and stationary storage. Simple Machines leverage mechanical advantage. In the same sense “Battery Day” will leverage Tesla’s capabilities in the automotive and the utility industries. No other company is cross-platform.

 

[LN1_Casey]

I got out of my Jun 28’ 825 calls today at 35% loss. Just can’t stand it anymore. This was my play for the Battery Day which should already have happened. But nobody is talking about Battery Day anymore, because it’s become an insignificant event. All that’s left for Elon is to confirm what’s already been covered on YouTube over and over again. Million mile battery pack is already the new standard with several companies having announced it.

Just because it's on youtube, doesn't mean that all the facts are known, the important ones are known, or that the general market knows. Further, a "million mile battery" has been discussed since at least April 2019. Of course other companies are copying Tesla, however, they can't even get a pack to 250 miles.

I think the battery day will still greatly effect the SP. Maybe that's why the SP has been constrained within the 800-ish range these last few trading days, not just Q2.

 

[StealthP3D]

I think the battery day will still greatly effect the SP. Maybe that's why the SP has been constrained within the 800-ish range these last few trading days, not just Q2.

I have no idea what effect battery day will have on share price for two reasons:

1) No one knows with any certainty what the most significant part of the announcement will be.
2) No one knows when it will be or what the share price will be going into the announcement.

The longer the share price has been constrained within a narrow range, the more strongly it will move out of that range. I've said it before but it deserves to be repeated: The exact share price on any given day or hour is not the real story here.

 

[canoemore]

I figure the longer we wait for battery day, the more likely it is that we get an announcement during the presentation to the effect of, "By the way, all Model S&X produced since X date already have the batteries in them."

 

[Artful Dodger]

Honestly, Battery Day was made significant and possibly is being made insignificant as you say only on this board. I wouldn’t make investment decisions based on the sentiment of commenters on an online board.

Elon's on this board again?! @Fact Checking know?

"Jan 30, 2020 - Wait until Battery Day. It's gonna blow your mind. It blows my mind, and I know it!" said Elon Musk during the latest Tesla earnings call. Talk of ..."​

Tesla Battery Day will 'Blow Your Mind' Says Elon Musk

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I got out of my Jun 28’ 825 calls today at 35% loss. Just can’t stand it anymore. This was my play for the Battery Day which should already have happened. But nobody is talking about Battery Day anymore, because it’s become an insignificant event. All that’s left for Elon is to confirm what’s already been covered on YouTube over and over again. Million mile battery pack is already the new standard with several companies having announced it.

Why would you exit your Battery Day position before Battery Day?

 

[woodisgood]

I got out of my Jun 28’ 825 calls today at 35% loss. Just can’t stand it anymore. This was my play for the Battery Day which should already have happened. But nobody is talking about Battery Day anymore, because it’s become an insignificant event. All that’s left for Elon is to confirm what’s already been covered on YouTube over and over again. Million mile battery pack is already the new standard with several companies having announced it.

Cheer up. You could have a 90% loss on your ER/battery day play like me.

 

[Mo City]

I got out of my Jun 28’ 825 calls today at 35% loss. Just can’t stand it anymore. This was my play for the Battery Day which should already have happened. But nobody is talking about Battery Day anymore, because it’s become an insignificant event. All that’s left for Elon is to confirm what’s already been covered on YouTube over and over again. Million mile battery pack is already the new standard with several companies having announced it.

Forget the other companies because none of them will produce EVs in volume for years and years. For them, 1 million miles is nothing more than a rhetorical standard to copycat Tesla. It's actually a form of flattery and respect (fear).

We don't know how Battery Day will affect TSLA. If volume, cost and density are all addressed, my wild guess is everyone will talk about it and TSLA will pop

 

[Zaxxon]

I have no idea what effect battery day will have on share price for two reasons:

1) No one knows with any certainty what the most significant part of the announcement will be.
2) No one knows when it will be or what the share price will be going into the announcement.

The nice thing about investing with a longer time horizon, staying out of calls, etc is that this problem reduces to the following statement:

1) I know with a fair degree of certainty that Tesla's battery improvements will strengthen the company's competitive position over time.

And that's all that really matters.

The exact share price on any given day or hour is not the real story here.

 

[Curt Renz]

Barron's - 25 minutes ago: Tesla Stock Will Benefit From a Successful SpaceX Flight. Here’s How.

Excerpts:

...After all, a world-famous scientist/engineer sits atop both organizations: Elon Musk. A successful launch will burnish his image , which can’t be bad for his car company...

...There is, however, one undeniable aspect of the SpaceX launch that benefits Tesla shareholders: The launch amounts to free advertising...

 

[dl003]

Elon's on this board again?! @Fact Checking know?

"Jan 30, 2020 - Wait until Battery Day. It's gonna blow your mind. It blows my mind, and I know it!" said Elon Musk during the latest Tesla earnings call. Talk of ..."​

Tesla Battery Day will 'Blow Your Mind' Says Elon Musk

Here's my issue with that, though: When Elon said he got his mind blown, I believed him. Still do. However, Elon saw everything. He saw 20 years into the future where this technology changes the world. He saw the iceberg.
On Battery Day, the general public will only be able to see the tip. It'll all come down to: how is it going to translate into the bottom line and how quickly? And they will only get really excited when GM hits 30% which is some quarters from now. Once again, the general public will miss the prophecy because they're short term thinkers. I'm not betting on TSLA mooning on B-Day because we're not Elon Musk. We lack his imagination to have our mind blown the same way. The 6 month hype train doesn't help it either.

 

[Runarbt]

Honestly, Battery Day was made significant and possibly is being made insignificant as you say only on this board. I wouldn’t make investment decisions based on the sentiment of commenters on an online board.

You know what.. back in 2013 - it was this board which helped me fight of fud and hold on to my shares. Everyone and their grandmother were convinced competition were coming and that Tesla was wastly overvalued at $30 a share and a crash was imminent. - then we were at $180 - and wow, you were even stupider to hold onto your shares..

Well - we are at $800 - and I am still listening to the sentiment on this board. And I am very happy indeed. Long and strong for another decade.

 

[skybluecgreen]

I figure the longer we wait for battery day, the more likely it is that we get an announcement during the presentation to the effect of, "By the way, all Model S&X produced since X date already have the batteries in them."

If Tesla is already making battery cells themselves with the new advances where are they doing this? I don't think there is room in Fremont make cells on a scale large enough even for the S&X. I think Giga1 is the first place they can realistically build facilities to make their own cells and that this will take a while. If they have already been building cell production capability at Giga1 wouldn't we see some evidence of it?

 

[Steve m]

The heck with Tesla.... It is reported that TMC is a major player in battery thermal management systems.

"Top Major Market Competitors:" Tesla Motors Club

Well done everyone!

AUTOMOTIVE BATTERY THERMAL MANAGEMENT SYSTEM MARKET TO SET NEW GROWTH CYCLE | TESLA MOTORS CLUB LLC, BORGWARNER INC., EBERSPÄCHER, TOSHIBA CORPORATION, ORION BMS AND MORE – Cole Reports

 

[Prunesquallor]

Barron's - 25 minutes ago: Tesla Stock Will Benefit From a Successful SpaceX Flight. Here’s How.

Excerpts:

...After all, a world-famous scientist/engineer sits atop both organizations: Elon Musk. A successful launch will burnish his image , which can’t be bad for his car company...

...There is, however, one undeniable aspect of the SpaceX launch that benefits Tesla shareholders: The launch amounts to free advertising...

It WILL be interesting to see how the media plays the crew heading out the pad in the Model X. They will almost HAVE to mention Musk's connection with both Tesla and SpaceX. Priceless.

 

[Runarbt]

If Tesla is already making battery cells themselves with the new advances where are they doing this? I don't think there is room in Fremont make cells on a scale large enough even for the S&X. I think Giga1 is the first place they can realistically build facilities to make their own cells and that this will take a while. If they have already been building cell production capability at Giga1 wouldn't we see some evidence of it?

They have panasonic do it? Why pay for old cells if they can have them switch to make new ones. I do think I read somewhere panasonic and tesla found renewed energy in they partnership - new investment and expansion? ;-)

 

[Jack6591]

Tesla Stock Will Benefit From a Successful SpaceX Flight. Here’s How.

Elon if you’re listening — send out a Cybertruck for the launch!