Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EcoBruin]

Tesla Stock Will Benefit From a Successful SpaceX Flight. Here’s How.

Elon if you’re listening — send out a Cybertruck for the launch!

We need more S, 3, X, Y orders. Tesla won't be able to fill all the current CT pre-orders for a while

 

[ninpb]

Tesla Stock Will Benefit From a Successful SpaceX Flight. Here’s How.

Elon if you’re listening — send out a Cybertruck for the launch!

Gotta transport the snacks for the trip somehow right?

 

[Jack6591]

We need more S, 3, X, Y orders. Tesla won't be able to fill all the current CT pre-orders for a while

Brand, Brand, Brand.

 

[jerry33]

We don't know how Battery Day will affect TSLA. If volume, cost and density are all addressed, my wild guess is everyone will talk about it and TSLA will pop

If Tesla invites the same bunch of losers (aka analysts) that they did for Investor Day, we pretty much know how it will go.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Here's my issue with that, though: When Elon said he got his mind blown, I believed him. Still do. However, Elon saw everything. He saw 20 years into the future where this technology changes the world. He saw the iceberg.
On Battery Day, the general public will only be able to see the tip. It'll all come down to: how is it going to translate into the bottom line and how quickly? And they will only get really excited when GM hits 30% which is some quarters from now. Once again, the general public will miss the prophecy because they're short term thinkers. I'm not betting on TSLA mooning on B-Day because we're not Elon Musk. We lack his imagination to have our mind blown the same way. The 6 month hype train doesn't help it either.

Well then, Jeff Dahn's new paper should be of no interest either: (May 19, 2020)

Logan, Eric R., David S. Hall, Marc ME Cormier, Tina Taskovic, Michael Bauer, Ines Hamam, Helena Hebecker, Laurent Molino, and Jeff R. Dahn. "Ester-Based Electrolytes for Fast Charging of Energy Dense Lithium-Ion Batteries." The Journal of Physical Chemistry C (2020).

https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.jpcc.0c02370​

From the Abstract:

• Electrolyte systems based on binary mixtures of organic carbonate ester co-solvents have limitations in ionic transport and thus limit extreme fast charge (XFC) and high-rate cycling of energy dense lithium-ion cells with thick electrodes (> 80 micrometers per side) at ambient temperature and below.
• Here, we present LiPF6 in methyl acetate (MA) as an ester-based liquid electrolyte that offers substantial improvements in ionic transport, doubling the conductivity of conventional electrolyte systems.
• Density functional theory-based molecular dynamics (DFT-MD) simulations give insights into the experimentally observed low solvation number for lithium ions in MA solutions and shows a solution system with highly mobile, loosely bound ionic species.
• We show that MA-based electrolytes with suitable additive formulae enable high cycling rates and excellent low temperature cycling performance in lithium-ion cell designs with thick electrodes but come with a trade-off in lifetime at elevated temperature.
• While there are inherent practical issues with MA as an electrolyte solvent, including a low flash point (-10°C), and lifetime penalties compared to state-of-the-art electrolytes, this work demonstrates that excellent ionic transport in the electrolyte can enable fast charging without the energy density sacrifice inherently associated with specifically tailored electrodes.
• Further work in electrolyte design, particularly in increasing ionic conductivity without sacrificing stability, has the potential to enable XFC in practical lithium ion cell chemistries and cell designs.

Sounds good to me! Maybe ready when SpaceX Ed. Cybertruck goes to Mars? That's where the low-temp performance will be most important, and high ambient-temp issues in using this new electrolyte will be least relevent. Sounds like Tesla has a niche market there, the size of a planet.

Cheers!

 

[StealthP3D]

You know what.. back in 2013 - it was this board which helped me fight of fud and hold on to my shares. Everyone and their grandmother were convinced competition were coming and that Tesla was wastly overvalued at $30 a share and a crash was imminent. - then we were at $180 - and wow, you were even stupider to hold onto your shares..

Well - we are at $800 - and I am still listening to the sentiment on this board. And I am very happy indeed. Long and strong for another decade.

I know! There are some people who continually proclaim that the general consensus on this board is too bullish, too unrealistic or not grounded in reality.

And yet the performance of the company (and our shares) continually proves them wrong. And yet they keep saying it as if they are the only "real" adults in the room!

 

[dl003]

Well then, Jeff Dahn's new paper should be of no interest either: (May 19, 2020)

Logan, Eric R., David S. Hall, Marc ME Cormier, Tina Taskovic, Michael Bauer, Ines Hamam, Helena Hebecker, Laurent Molino, and Jeff R. Dahn. "Ester-Based Electrolytes for Fast Charging of Energy Dense Lithium-Ion Batteries." The Journal of Physical Chemistry C (2020).

https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.jpcc.0c02370​

From the Abstract:

• Electrolyte systems based on binary mixtures of organic carbonate ester co-solvents have limitations in ionic transport and thus limit extreme fast charge (XFC) and high-rate cycling of energy dense lithium-ion cells with thick electrodes (> 80 micrometers per side) at ambient temperature and below.
• Here, we present LiPF6 in methyl acetate (MA) as an ester-based liquid electrolyte that offers substantial improvements in ionic transport, doubling the conductivity of conventional electrolyte systems.
• Density functional theory-based molecular dynamics (DFT-MD) simulations give insights into the experimentally observed low solvation number for lithium ions in MA solutions and shows a solution system with highly mobile, loosely bound ionic species.
• We show that MA-based electrolytes with suitable additive formulae enable high cycling rates and excellent low temperature cycling performance in lithium-ion cell designs with thick electrodes but come with a trade-off in lifetime at elevated temperature.
• While there are inherent practical issues with MA as an electrolyte solvent, including a low flash point (-10°C), and lifetime penalties compared to state-of-the-art electrolytes, this work demonstrates that excellent ionic transport in the electrolyte can enable fast charging without the energy density sacrifice inherently associated with specifically tailored electrodes.
• Further work in electrolyte design, particularly in increasing ionic conductivity without sacrificing stability, has the potential to enable XFC in practical lithiumion cell chemistries and cell designs.

Sounds good to me! Maybe ready when SpaceX Ed. Cybertruck goes to Mars?

Cheers!

Sounds good to me also. Good for buy and holders. It's not English to the investing public though. I just don't see Wall Street analysts giving out upgrades on it. Most analysts are still auto, not tech. Don't get me wrong, I'm talking about perception, not fundamentals. Long term, perception changes based on whether fundamentals materialize which is why it's good for buy and holders. Short term, stocks trade on perception and so we need to have some talk to me like I'm 5: we'll be able to produce battery at $70 per KW at the pack level starting on ... We'll be able to produce 1 TWh starting on ... Our gross margin will be 30% starting on ... if it's allowed by the SEC. This is not a "FB will start competing with Amazon. To the moon" type of reveal.

 

[X Fan]

1. Safety. It's just like Japan. Even a young girl can pretty much go anywhere in Singapore alone, at any time of the day or night. You can also put your bag/phone/laptop/wallet on a seat/table at a Starbucks/cafe, and then go order and collect your drink.
2. The people/society. This is pretty much the only reason why I'm not living in Japan. I freaking love Japan, but the society is messed up. Singapore, on the other hand, is multi-cultural, but lives together in harmony in spite of it. It's possible that as a Westerner I'm treated a lot better in Singapore though. In Japan I faced a lot of discrimination. But all in all, I really like the people there.
3. The language. I've learned to speak fluent Japanese, but English is still my favorite language. There are other cool Asian countries (Taiwan especially), but the people in most of them don't speak perfect English. I quite like Asia, and I think Singapore is pretty much the perfect mix between east and west for me.
4. The government. There's not 100% freedom of speech, and I don't follow politics closely, but based on the knowledge I have I'd say Singapore is the best government in the world. There seems to be relatively little corruption, and the government really seems to do what's best for its people. SG's government is also very efficient. And last but not least, the current prime minister also seems like an amazing person. Based on the times I've heard him speak and seen interviews, I have a lot of respect for him.
5. The city is clean, modern, and beautiful. I love skyscrapers, but I especially love the contrast between a bunch of skyscrapers surrounded by a jungle full of nature.
6. The economy and quality of life. Singapore is a great place to work and live. It's a large city/country with tons of possibilities.

+1...I spent 8 years in Japan and with offices in Hong Kong, Singapore, Shanghai and others I travelled often to Singapore.

I fully support your answer with the only caveat that the weather is unrelenting and "wet" season is more of a challenge. Of course, a quick trip to Au, Nz or Japan can get a different weather experience.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Why would you exit your Battery Day position before Battery Day?

Because Battery Day could be after these calls have expired worthlessly. We have no date yet for Battery Day. For these options to become profitable stock had to be at $825 + $85 time premium = $910. Too much risk for me, I sold them at a loss and moved the proceeds into TSLA shares @ 820 today. At least now I can sleep again...

 

[skybluecgreen]

They have panasonic do it? Why pay for old cells if they can have them switch to make new ones. I do think I read somewhere panasonic and tesla found renewed energy in they partnership - new investment and expansion? ;-)

Maybe Panasonic could incorporate 'some' of the new tech in their current production lines but the main focus of Battery Day from what I gather is the news Tesla will be producing their own cells. Speculation suggests the changes in tech are significant- new chemistry & production techniques, new cell form (tabless), maybe new cell size. I think to make these new cells, production facilities must be built from the ground up.

Will new cells even work with current pack formats? Tesla isn't even able to use the 2170's in the S&X (not to reopen that can of worms.) Would the new cells be compatible with the 3 and Y? If the cell size is different the packs would need significant change.

When this came up last week a number of members predicted the first Teslas to use the new cells will be the Cybertruck, the Semi and the Roadster 2. I am curious if some members believe the new cells will also go into the 3 and Y and if so, when could that happen?

 

[jerry33]

Will new cells even work with current pack formats? Tesla isn't even able to use the 2170's in the S&X

More correctly, Tesla sees no reason to change the form factor (and reengineer the battery packs) because the chemistry (that's been used so far) doesn't change with form factor.

 

[gerebgraus]

If Tesla invites the same bunch of losers (aka analysts) that they did for Investor Day, we pretty much know how it will go.

To me the mystery: How can Tesla present great future advancement in battery, etc. without Osbourning its current lineup?

 

[woodisgood]

Because Battery Day could be after these calls have expired worthlessly. We have no date yet for Battery Day. For these options to become profitable stock had to be at $825 + $85 time premium = $910. Too much risk for me, I sold them at a loss and moved the proceeds into TSLA shares @ 820 today. At least now I can sleep again...

Just to illustrate a real-life example and not necessarily directed at you:

For those that may not know, in the US this would be a prime example of a wash sale, meaning that the loss taken on the options cannot be deducted from profits for the year until those additional TSLA shares purchased today (or within +/- 30 days) are sold.
It gets tricky because sometimes you may take a loss on options but inadvertently wash the sale to a really long-term holding (shares), meaning you basically never get to take the benefit on taxes. This is unfortunately true even if your loss is in a play (taxed) account and your shares are purchased in a (non-taxed) retirement account. Only way it doesn’t matter is if the loss occurs in a non-taxed account.

 

[Curt Renz]

Electrek - 12 minutes ago: All eyes on Tesla's recovery in China — rumors of massive backlog - Electrek

 

[HG Wells]

To me the mystery: How can Tesla present great future advancement in battery, etc. without Osbourning its current lineup?

By having most of the benefits implemented already (not all).
IE chemistry changes. No changes in cell size etc.
Could be they are waiting for existing inventory to be delivered.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Electrek - 12 minutes ago: All eyes on Tesla's recovery in China — rumors of massive backlog - Electrek

Fred is predicting 40k deliveries for Q2 total

 

[MP3Mike]

Going OT:

For those that may not know, in the US this would be a prime example of a wash sale, meaning that the loss taken on the options cannot be deducted from profits for the year until those additional TSLA shares purchased today (or within +/- 30 days) are sold.

Are you sure about that? I wouldn't think that shares are considered a "substantially identical security" to options. (From what I have seen even options with a different strike/date aren't considered a "substantially identical security".)

 

[jerry33]

To me the mystery: How can Tesla present great future advancement in battery, etc. without Osbourning its current lineup?

It's a high tech item. If you can buy it, it's already obsolete. You just pay your money at the time point you want in.

 

[smorgasbord]

Going OT:
Are you sure about that? I wouldn't think that shares are considered a "substantially identical security" to options. (From what I have seen even options with a different strike/date aren't considered a "substantially identical security".)

Yes, we're sure. See Wash Sales and Options - Fairmark.com for instance:

Example: On March 31 you sell 100 shares of XYZ at a loss. On April 10 you buy a call option on XYZ stock. (A call option gives you the right to buy 100 shares.) The sale on March 31 is a wash sale.

It doesn’t matter whether the call option is in the money. This is an automatic rule. If you buy a call option in this period, you’ll have a wash sale. And that’s true even if you never exercise the option and acquire the stock.

And it's also true even if you do the trades in different accounts, as long as one of those accounts is not tax deferred.

 

[woodisgood]

Going OT:

Are you sure about that? I wouldn't think that shares are considered a "substantially identical security" to options. (From what I have seen even options with a different strike/date aren't considered a "substantially identical security".)

For sure options and wash sales get very tricky with a lot of gray area and there are different interpretations. A conservative interpretation holds that if your position can take advantage of the same directional move in share price, it washes (ie calls and shares on the same ticker). That being said, I am no accountant or tax attorney - this is just how I generally view the tax consequences of my trading.

I much prefer the interpretation you’re suggesting though.