Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lafrisbee]

I used to hate the word "cannibalize." It is often carries a negative connotation, as if a company does well to avoid it. But fear of cannibalization is the curse of a company that cannot innovate to save itself. Tesla is just the opposite. As Musk says, "In the long run only the pace of innovation matters."

If you are not cannibalizing your existing product line, you are not innovating fast enough. The rest of the auto industry will lose massive market share because they are too timid to cannibalize their their product line. They will lose market share to relentless innovators who wrecklessly make everything obsolete.

Elon is a prince among cannibals. May it be that the pace of innovation at Tesla is full cannibal.

If I knew how to fix that for you...
Elon is the Joey Chestnut among Automakers....

 

[elasalle]

That sounds like advanced basket weaving with freshly spun spider silk. I’ve given up without even trying. Showoff.

Can't do weaving, then try knitting

Only way to learn is to try.
Go on sell 1 CC for Aug 20 - 1300 against 100 shares and pocket like 1500 bucks then go out and buy more wool.
Surely even if you loose 100 shares @ 1300, island is still intact

 

[dgodfrey]

What is that segment though? I mean I need one like I need another island to occupy...and I ordered the tri motor version.
I think the truck will sell well to soccer mom's,Merica dudes,real estate agent's...even cat's will buy one.

This is just another example of 4D chess going on at Tesla. Franz and Elon have designed what's turned out to be an Automotive Medusa.
Instead of turning to stone when you look at it, it puts you into a robotic trance whereby you hie yourself to the nearest wifi, pull out your wallet and next thing you know. Reservation Confirmed.
All this talk about should Tesla advertise, well, they have been, you're just unaware how it works. Another disruption to an established industry that won't know what hit them.

 

[MartinAustin]

As holders of TSLA I don't think we need to worry about cannibalisation of one Tesla vehicle sale by another Tesla vehicle sale. It's not really cannibalisation is it? Still a Tesla getting sold. If we look at the total number of vehicles delivered each year it's rocketing up. Cannibalisation shouldn't really be a concern.

In fact the process of introducing a more finely-cut product mix (small medium & large sedans, small medium & large SUV, sport cars, large & small trucks, etc.) only serves to bring more buyers to the brand, because their needs are being met. For example if you really needed an SUV in 2013, you didn't buy a Tesla. Now with 4 vehicles, more people's specific wants can be fulfilled.

IMO it's the other brands that need to worry about being cannibalised by Tesla.

 

[Kenypowa]

As holders of TSLA I don't think we need to worry about cannibalisation of one Tesla vehicle sale by another Tesla vehicle sale. It's not really cannibalisation is it? Still a Tesla getting sold. If we look at the total number of vehicles delivered each year it's rocketing up. Cannibalisation shouldn't really be a concern.

In fact the process of introducing a more finely-cut product mix (small medium & large sedans, small medium & large SUV, sport cars, large & small trucks, etc.) only serves to bring more buyers to the brand, because their needs are being met. For example if you really needed an SUV in 2013, you didn't buy a Tesla. Now with 4 vehicles, more people's specific wants can be fulfilled.

IMO it's the other brands that need to worry about being cannibalised by Tesla.

One of Steve Jobs' famous quotes: If you don't cannibalize yourself, someone else will. So even though an iPhone might cannibalize sales of an iPod, or an iPad might cannibalize sales of a laptop, that did not deter him.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Even with cv19 TSLA should have shot past 900 toward 1k on the 1Q earnings and everything else. I'm starting to think the big boys are just gonna stand pat through the summer and even Battery Day isn't gonna move the needle.

Gonna pack it in til Aug 15ish and buy some $1200+ LEAPs then. To the beach!

 

[StealthP3D]

Funds used are actually from other CC's i sold in past when IV was high. cheers!!

You are thinking about money inaccurately when you attribute it to a specific source. Money is not identifiable as to where it came from, it is simply money. There is no difference.

This is a first-principles way of looking at your money. Any other way is sub-optimal from an investment performance standpoint. If you make distinctions where there are none, you will be allowing non-existent attributes to affect your allocation of capital. This is not good.

 

[theschnell]

The bid on the Jun 2022 $200 put is $2100, so you'll have to go higher than that.

$210 and its still at $2,000.

 

[StealthP3D]

Anyway, took advantage of it to sell some covered calls for end of next week and add 3 shares to my core stash - that's 10 free shares in May, thank you very much.

I believe that is called "counting your chickens before they hatch".

 

[StealthP3D]

Can't do weaving, then try knitting

Only way to learn is to try.
Go on sell 1 CC for Aug 20 - 1300 against 100 shares and pocket like 1500 bucks then go out and buy more wool.
Surely even if you loose 100 shares @ 1300, island is still intact

If you lose 100 shares @1300, chances are you are losing them at a lot higher price. But your $1500 only covers your losses up to $15 higher per share. What if it was trading in the $2200 range in August? That would be a loss of $90,000! All for $1500 measly bucks!

 

[elasalle]

You are thinking about money inaccurately when you attribute it to a specific source. Money is not identifiable as to where it came from, it is simply money. There is no difference.

This is a first-principles way of looking at your money. Any other way is sub-optimal from an investment performance standpoint. If you make distinctions where there are none, you will be allowing non-existent attributes to affect your allocation of capital. This is not good.

Well, If I had to move money from my person funds to buy Jun 22 900s at like $250, I might not have done it. But given that they are from past profits with the intent to redeploy at the right place, right time I used it. Clarification was added so folks know why I could add at these prices.

I have monies set up for kids funds, retirements etc. Also when I get a bonus it becomes easier to spend it easily .. so might just be more than one philosophies/principles on this matter. .. cheers!!

 

[elasalle]

If you lose 100 shares @1300, chances are you are losing them at a lot higher price. But your $1500 only covers your losses up to $15 higher per share. What if it was trading in the $2200 range in August? That would be a loss of $90,000! All for $1500 measly bucks!

What if SP stalls or goes down by August?, you would still pocket the 1500.

 

[StealthP3D]

Well, If I had to move money from my person funds to buy Jun 22 900s at like $250, I might not have done it. But given that they are from past profits with the intent to redeploy at the right place, right time I used it. Clarification was added so folks know why I could add at these prices.

I have monies set up for kids funds, retirements etc. Also when I get a bonus it becomes easier to spend it easily .. so might just be more than one philosophies/principles on this matter. .. cheers!!

It's true that individual investors have the right to look at their money any way they want. And, on the surface, or at first glance, it seems to make perfect sense to look at money that way (attributing it to its source as if that was a valid attribute).

I'm simply pointing out that it's sub-optimal and not a first-principles way to invest. In my opinion, this is probably one of the most common mistakes made by beginning investors (and many experienced ones as well).

 

[StealthP3D]

What if SP stalls or goes down by August?, you would still pocket the 1500.

True. But it's still only $1500.

Additionally, you still take the same valuation hit on each 100 shares that you are using to cover the sold call(s). It's only in the human mind that things get compartmentalized in such a way that things that seem unlikely are typically discounted beyond what that unlikeliness implies. I mean, if it seems like something is probably not going to happen, then we really don't need to consider it, right? Especially if that thing is not catastrophic? This is how the human mind evolved to think over millions of years. It works well for survival but not so well for investing.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Lol Nasdaq is definitely going to break its all time high in the next week......and we'll still be cycling between 800 and 820. Such a joke

 

[Lycanthrope]

I believe that is called "counting your chickens before they hatch".

I'll take the risk - Citadel (that's the name!), acquired 4% of $TSLA shares to dick about with the price and claw back the losses they incurred during the big run at the end of last year/beginning of this. If they don't want it, it's not going to happen. Needs a serious delivery/earnings beat to breakout - and even then they'll make money...

And even if if my shares are called away, which is already unlikely, there's a reasonable probability it will dip again so I can re-buy. not guaranteed, but likely.

What might be a better risk/reward strategy, is rather than selling calls against all my shares, just use one tranche of 100 to sell a weekly with a much lower strike. Premium comes to about the same, still unlikely to exercise in the current environment, and if it did, well it's just a %age of the total.

Hmmmm...

 

[elasalle]

True. But it's still only $1500.

44 of my shares purchased initially @ $34 eons ago. & it could be redeployed somewhere else.

Even if it hits 1300 in Aug, there is a strong chance I will not lose my shares, I will sell the Jun 22 @ 900 and cover the cover calls sold - most likely for break even or say slight loss. But once I covered, i would be selling new CC's in 3000 range (when it hits 2200), to recover some of the funds ...cheers (last post for now on this topic)

 

[skybluecgreen]

Even with cv19 TSLA should have shot past 900 toward 1k on the 1Q earnings and everything else. I'm starting to think the big boys are just gonna stand pat through the summer and even Battery Day isn't gonna move the needle.

Gonna pack it in til Aug 15ish and buy some $1200+ LEAPs then. To the beach!

While I am slightly disappointed by tsla's relative weakness in the last week or so, it is forming a tight consolidation that can lead to a breakout to the upside. Of course it can break to the downside too but based on the strength of the prior uptrend beginning this fall, chances are a move will be up rather than down.

 

[StealthP3D]

44 of my shares purchased initially @ $34 eons ago. & it could be redeployed somewhere else.

See, there you go again!

I'm actually trying to help you think about money in a more productive manner but if you're not interested, that's cool!

 

[elasalle]

See, there you go again!

I'm actually trying to help you think about money in a more productive manner but if you're not interested, that's cool!

Dude I respect your opinions, but let's not start patronizing. (there is patreon with paid subscribers for that)
Let's leave it at there are many ways to skin a cat. Let's say you are in top 10% of folks who have had an impact for me here on TMC, but doesn't mean I will follow or agree everything you say.

A while back I said "Cash is King" - you wrote a long piece on that as well. many blogs later I read that you had a lot sitting in cash etc etc.
So while I read and learn from others I follow what I know (& learn from my mistakes)

Cheers once again