I am not a believer in the theories of coordinated control of the share price, I just think that consolidation happens naturally and can be healthy. Also, the longer it goes, the bigger the break from it will be.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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I am not a believer in the theories of coordinated control of the share price, I just think that consolidation happens naturally and can be healthy. Also, the longer it goes, the bigger the break from it will be.
I think we need to take a step back and consider the kinds of risk Tesla is facing right now. Like it or not, manufacturing is at greater risks if there's a second wave. MY has a great addressable market but question is is Tesla ready to produce MY at the same rate as M3? If MY is still ancillary at this point then demand can be an issue, CAN BE. If Q2 turns out to be great it'll be a monumental FOMO festival but when I try to be objective I see lots of risks. Whatever the financial models are being used on this board, I don't know if they've considered the one time expenses of closing and reopening, PPE/mask/vent purchases and donation, loss of ZEV credits, and now a price drop. There're simply not enough time between close of Q1 and May to hope for meaningful cost savings. That's the reason I'm thinking for the time being Tesla will be macro driven.
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I'll definitely say up front that I do not think a 2nd wave would close down the country again. Simply put I don't think people would put up with another lockdown and as more and more data comes out that is actually based on more complete data gathering, it weakens the case for lockdowns. Not turning this into a covid thread, everyone's views on the cost of a single life is their own. That's not my point. My point is early studies were based on wildly incomplete data that showed a very different potential outcome and a drastically higher death rate verses what data is showing now.
As for the risks for Tesla, I don't think anyone is ignoring the risks. We've acknowledged credits could be up in the air for Q2. Costs of closing/reopening, masks, and donations? Really? That's some pretty ticky tack items to worry about and that's all just one time items in Q2 with no bearing on Q3. I think you're ignoring the strides that Tesla has made. The Model Y ramp has been essentially at twice the speed as the Model 3 ramp with better efficiencies and margins every step of the way. And what my post was saying is that even if Q2 numbers aren't enough to generate a profit and S&P inclusion......everyone and their mom can see the ramp trajectory of the Model Y and that Q3 will be the first real quarter of the combination of MIC Model 3 fully ramped to 4-5k/week, Model Y fully ramped at Fremont, combined with Fremont Model 3/S/X back to full production.
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The problem with long term investing right now is that we don't have full market participation. Far from that, majority of big funds thinks market will be down by EOY. Not saying that's right or wrong; fact is a lot of long term investors are sitting out right now. That's why volume has been very low. Longs have taken positions, yes, but lack of big institution activity is what keeps us in a range. That's why I said the market needs to be beaten down to its knee for the bubble to burst which then draws big funds back in, who are more likely to see Tesla's value. Right now market is very short term thinking. Big whales are not sitting out right now because they don't believe in Tesla but because they don't buy this market. So, what I'm saying is, while we believe in Tesla, let's not assume macro risks don't play a role. Even if they don't manifest, they still greatly affect Tesla as they remain a concern for institutions, the people who can drive SP up in a major way. Is a blowout Q3 a given? Maybe to us, but not to them, considering the muddy outlook on the entire global economy.
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For anyone who is still interested in Jay Leon’s episode.
Watch this instead:
Beside this, there are only some clips of going through the current lineup, nothing new.
But it makes it a great infomercial though.
One comment Elon made in the CyberTruck struck me:
All these seems to be Mars tech, but actually would help us survive on earth when(not if) we f*** it up too badly.
Watch this instead:
But it makes it a great infomercial though.
One comment Elon made in the CyberTruck struck me:
He is not kidding, EV, solar, energy storage and charging network, bio defense mode in X, air tight version of CyberTruck, Home HVAC with water condensation...
All these seems to be Mars tech, but actually would help us survive on earth when(not if) we f*** it up too badly.
Jovian
Member
Rob (Tesla Daily) got invited to write articles for his own section at TheStreet.com. This should help increase exposure of quality Tesla information to a wider audience!
Announcement
Hi everyone,
Today, I have a very exciting announcement to make. TheStreet.com has decided to add Tesla Daily as a standalone page on their website at www.thestreet.com/tesladaily. It should go live around 1pm PST today, May 28. This is an additional medium and will not impact the podcast or YouTube videos in any way. I am still completely independent, with absolute control over my content. TheStreet will simply help get that content out to more people and give me a platform for additional content while growing the audience and network. I think this is going to lead to other great opportunities, as well.
This is another huge step forward in accomplishing the goal I have had from the start with Tesla Daily, get accurate and valuable information out to as many people as possible. Back in August last year, when I announced that I would be focusing on these projects full-time, I posted this:
"Podcast shareability and searchability are poor. We need content that can do more. I want to bring the same rational, authentic, anti-sensational, anti-clickbait mindset that I approach this podcast with every day to a broader audience through different mediums. I want to make a bigger impact. I want us to make a bigger impact."
The vision was clear, and I'm so excited to be able to move that vision forward one more step today. This move would not be possible without the incredible support on Patreon.
For some background on how this came to be, a few months ago a Tesla Daily listener who works with TheStreet reached out and asked if I might be interested in this partnership. He's been listening for a long time and that was very clear from our many conversations. Because of that, he completely understood my goals and my motivations, and how different those are from the norm. This was a huge factor for me. I was skeptical at first, I think we all know how I feel about mainstream media. After a lot of discussion, I realized how unique this opportunity was and how good of a fit it would be. Having the opportunity to remain completely independent while having a major publisher distribute my work to a broader audience is exactly what I didn't know I was looking for.
There's no catch here. TheStreet will make money from ads on my content and I'll get a cut. That's it, exactly like YouTube. I think you all know I'm not big on ads, but ads are the vessel that allows for broader distribution. If I didn't have YouTube ads turned on, YouTube would have no incentive to show more people my content because they would lose money on it. If I didn't agree to have ads on TheStreet site, well, they wouldn't be interested in my content. The podcast remains ad free, just like it has been from the start.
The other big thing here is that I can opt out at any time. If I don't like how it goes, it's done. We move on. As always, I welcome your feedback.
This is not the end of progress. There are always things happening behind the scenes here, always ideas flowing. I think we are just at the beginning of this journey. Again, I want to thank all of you. Without you, Tesla Daily would have died off. This hasn't been easy, and I thought about giving it up so many times over the years, but what kept me going was knowing how much it must mean to all of you to sacrifice your time and your money to support me.
Thanks for giving me a voice.
Talk soon,
Rob
Announcement
Hi everyone,
Today, I have a very exciting announcement to make. TheStreet.com has decided to add Tesla Daily as a standalone page on their website at www.thestreet.com/tesladaily. It should go live around 1pm PST today, May 28. This is an additional medium and will not impact the podcast or YouTube videos in any way. I am still completely independent, with absolute control over my content. TheStreet will simply help get that content out to more people and give me a platform for additional content while growing the audience and network. I think this is going to lead to other great opportunities, as well.
This is another huge step forward in accomplishing the goal I have had from the start with Tesla Daily, get accurate and valuable information out to as many people as possible. Back in August last year, when I announced that I would be focusing on these projects full-time, I posted this:
"Podcast shareability and searchability are poor. We need content that can do more. I want to bring the same rational, authentic, anti-sensational, anti-clickbait mindset that I approach this podcast with every day to a broader audience through different mediums. I want to make a bigger impact. I want us to make a bigger impact."
The vision was clear, and I'm so excited to be able to move that vision forward one more step today. This move would not be possible without the incredible support on Patreon.
For some background on how this came to be, a few months ago a Tesla Daily listener who works with TheStreet reached out and asked if I might be interested in this partnership. He's been listening for a long time and that was very clear from our many conversations. Because of that, he completely understood my goals and my motivations, and how different those are from the norm. This was a huge factor for me. I was skeptical at first, I think we all know how I feel about mainstream media. After a lot of discussion, I realized how unique this opportunity was and how good of a fit it would be. Having the opportunity to remain completely independent while having a major publisher distribute my work to a broader audience is exactly what I didn't know I was looking for.
There's no catch here. TheStreet will make money from ads on my content and I'll get a cut. That's it, exactly like YouTube. I think you all know I'm not big on ads, but ads are the vessel that allows for broader distribution. If I didn't have YouTube ads turned on, YouTube would have no incentive to show more people my content because they would lose money on it. If I didn't agree to have ads on TheStreet site, well, they wouldn't be interested in my content. The podcast remains ad free, just like it has been from the start.
The other big thing here is that I can opt out at any time. If I don't like how it goes, it's done. We move on. As always, I welcome your feedback.
This is not the end of progress. There are always things happening behind the scenes here, always ideas flowing. I think we are just at the beginning of this journey. Again, I want to thank all of you. Without you, Tesla Daily would have died off. This hasn't been easy, and I thought about giving it up so many times over the years, but what kept me going was knowing how much it must mean to all of you to sacrifice your time and your money to support me.
Thanks for giving me a voice.
Talk soon,
Rob
Macro's don't mean didly squat for a company that's growing 50% for the year. There's lots of examples of companies executing during a downtrend in the overall economy and/or macro markets and their stock rally's upwards. I completely understand the notion that lots of money is currently sitting on the sidelines waiting for the macros to retrace. I agree with that. But if Tesla executes in Q3 and Q4, doesn't matter what the macro's do. Could it mean Tesla is only at 1,000 at the end of the year instead of say 1,200 or 1,300? Sure. But the idea that tesla stock will go down with the macro's in the 2nd half of this year even if Tesla executes on Q3 and Q4 is of zero concern to me.
You're not selling and I'm not selling on Q2 results so I guess we're on the same side here and neither one of us have to convince the other of anything. I'm just explaining my logic for why I see the SP to be range bound for the next month or 3. The virus is not what's keeping institutions out. The Fed printer is. I'm not old enough to draw a comparison between this market and anything that happened before. AFAIK, this is an unprecedented level of government manipulation and that should weigh on their mind. I was mainly responding to this statement
Market sinking this last hour on Trump announcement of China News conference.
Dow gives up 210-point gain, turns negative after Trump announces China news conference
Dow gives up 210-point gain, turns negative after Trump announces China news conference
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
Just wait. Tomorrow Trump will impose additional tariffs on China.
oh no, not the tariffs. Are we fighting over soybeans again?
lafrisbee
Active Member
It's 1:23 PM PST, I registered for Thestreet, and I tried to follow your link and it wouldn't open. I even opened the site and searched Tesladaily, tesla Daily, and Rob Mauer.
"No results found".
CyberDutchie
Active Member
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
There's so much wrong here, I don't know where to begin so I'll just cover it all in the order it was presented:
A primary tenant of long-term investing is it doesn't need to try to second-guess shorter-term market moods. So that's not a problem of long-term investing right now, it's a feature or a benefit if you will. Long-term investing works without concerning itself with market moods.
A tenant of long-term investing is that you remain invested, not pick and choose periods that you figure would be good to sit out. It makes no sense to explain low volume on the behavior of long-term investors (who by nature do not contribute a large amount of volume because they are not constantly buying and selling). The low volume is almost certainly the result of less frequent trading by active traders and other market participants who need to move in and out of positions frequently for various reasons..
I feel like I need to remind that the number of long positions doesn't really vary except as a function of how many shares are sold short. What keeps us in a range is not the "lack of big institution activity" but the fact that the buyers and sellers that are being active have valued it within the current range through supply and demand. If there is manipulation happening, it is happening on top of that natural price discovery. Price discovery is constantly happening and it does not depend upon the activities of big institutions, it depends upon whatever trading is occurring and the balance of those who want to buy/sell at any given price point.
That's just a bunch of unsupported opinion without something to back it up.
The macro environment always plays an important role. All the time with all the stocks. That's nothing new. And there will always be some stocks that move against the macro movements. Rotations out of sectors falling out of favor, rotations into sectors deemed more productive. I haven't seen anyone in this thread say anything that I interpreted as ignoring the macro.
Nothing is a given in investing because the market often reacts differently to seemingly similar events or situations. We don't have great visibility into how well Tesla will perform this quarter other than to base it off their known ability to roll with the punches and to make lemonade out of lemons. Just because they are good under adversity doesn't mean a blowout Q3 is a given but it would be foolish to ignore their proven ability to perform in previous challenging situations. And strong results wouldn't necessarily imply the market will see the results in the same light, that is also true, as always. There is a lot of room for interpretation and that is nothing new either.
I guess I don't see where you are going with this except to say you think Tesla will disappoint? I use a question mark because your message is unclear but it seems to be one of caution and worry and fear without really speaking to anything that isn't always present or identifying anything beyond what seems to be your gut feeling. Yet it is stated more as a matter of fact. I wouldn't be so confused if you had simply stated your gut feeling is telling you these things but instead you tried to support it with a bunch of gobbly-gook that has no basis (that I can see) in reality.
A primary tenant of long-term investing is it doesn't need to try to second-guess shorter-term market moods. So that's not a problem of long-term investing right now, it's a feature or a benefit if you will. Long-term investing works without concerning itself with market moods.
A tenant of long-term investing is that you remain invested, not pick and choose periods that you figure would be good to sit out. It makes no sense to explain low volume on the behavior of long-term investors (who by nature do not contribute a large amount of volume because they are not constantly buying and selling). The low volume is almost certainly the result of less frequent trading by active traders and other market participants who need to move in and out of positions frequently for various reasons..
I feel like I need to remind that the number of long positions doesn't really vary except as a function of how many shares are sold short. What keeps us in a range is not the "lack of big institution activity" but the fact that the buyers and sellers that are being active have valued it within the current range through supply and demand. If there is manipulation happening, it is happening on top of that natural price discovery. Price discovery is constantly happening and it does not depend upon the activities of big institutions, it depends upon whatever trading is occurring and the balance of those who want to buy/sell at any given price point.
That's just a bunch of unsupported opinion without something to back it up.
The macro environment always plays an important role. All the time with all the stocks. That's nothing new. And there will always be some stocks that move against the macro movements. Rotations out of sectors falling out of favor, rotations into sectors deemed more productive. I haven't seen anyone in this thread say anything that I interpreted as ignoring the macro.
Nothing is a given in investing because the market often reacts differently to seemingly similar events or situations. We don't have great visibility into how well Tesla will perform this quarter other than to base it off their known ability to roll with the punches and to make lemonade out of lemons. Just because they are good under adversity doesn't mean a blowout Q3 is a given but it would be foolish to ignore their proven ability to perform in previous challenging situations. And strong results wouldn't necessarily imply the market will see the results in the same light, that is also true, as always. There is a lot of room for interpretation and that is nothing new either.
I guess I don't see where you are going with this except to say you think Tesla will disappoint? I use a question mark because your message is unclear but it seems to be one of caution and worry and fear without really speaking to anything that isn't always present or identifying anything beyond what seems to be your gut feeling. Yet it is stated more as a matter of fact. I wouldn't be so confused if you had simply stated your gut feeling is telling you these things but instead you tried to support it with a bunch of gobbly-gook that has no basis (that I can see) in reality.
JusRelax
Active Member
2020 Shareholder meeting on July 7th:
Attachments
For better or worse, there seems to be broad support in the US for some sort of action on China. This is a risk for Tesla.
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