Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

I believe that is called "counting your chickens before they hatch".

I'll take the risk - Citadel (that's the name!), acquired 4% of $TSLA shares to dick about with the price and claw back the losses they incurred during the big run at the end of last year/beginning of this. If they don't want it, it's not going to happen. Needs a serious delivery/earnings beat to breakout - and even then they'll make money...

And even if if my shares are called away, which is already unlikely, there's a reasonable probability it will dip again so I can re-buy. not guaranteed, but likely.

What might be a better risk/reward strategy, is rather than selling calls against all my shares, just use one tranche of 100 to sell a weekly with a much lower strike. Premium comes to about the same, still unlikely to exercise in the current environment, and if it did, well it's just a %age of the total.

Hmmmm...

 

[elasalle]

True. But it's still only $1500.

44 of my shares purchased initially @ $34 eons ago. & it could be redeployed somewhere else.

Even if it hits 1300 in Aug, there is a strong chance I will not lose my shares, I will sell the Jun 22 @ 900 and cover the cover calls sold - most likely for break even or say slight loss. But once I covered, i would be selling new CC's in 3000 range (when it hits 2200), to recover some of the funds ...cheers (last post for now on this topic)

 

[skybluecgreen]

Even with cv19 TSLA should have shot past 900 toward 1k on the 1Q earnings and everything else. I'm starting to think the big boys are just gonna stand pat through the summer and even Battery Day isn't gonna move the needle.

Gonna pack it in til Aug 15ish and buy some $1200+ LEAPs then. To the beach!

While I am slightly disappointed by tsla's relative weakness in the last week or so, it is forming a tight consolidation that can lead to a breakout to the upside. Of course it can break to the downside too but based on the strength of the prior uptrend beginning this fall, chances are a move will be up rather than down.

 

[StealthP3D]

44 of my shares purchased initially @ $34 eons ago. & it could be redeployed somewhere else.

See, there you go again!

I'm actually trying to help you think about money in a more productive manner but if you're not interested, that's cool!

 

[elasalle]

See, there you go again!

I'm actually trying to help you think about money in a more productive manner but if you're not interested, that's cool!

Dude I respect your opinions, but let's not start patronizing. (there is patreon with paid subscribers for that)
Let's leave it at there are many ways to skin a cat. Let's say you are in top 10% of folks who have had an impact for me here on TMC, but doesn't mean I will follow or agree everything you say.

A while back I said "Cash is King" - you wrote a long piece on that as well. many blogs later I read that you had a lot sitting in cash etc etc.
So while I read and learn from others I follow what I know (& learn from my mistakes)

Cheers once again

 

[TheTalkingMule]

While I am slightly disappointed by tsla's relative weakness in the last week or so, it is forming a tight consolidation that can lead to a breakout to the upside. Of course it can break to the downside too but based on the strength of the prior uptrend beginning this fall, chances are a move will be up rather than down.

Fairly certain that's the case, but it feels like there's a "coordinated disinterest" in any major moves when we should really be more volatile to the upside given our historic pattern. Maybe there's a breaking point event this summer, but doesn't it feel like everyone somehow knows S&P inclusion isn't happening any time soon?

Is there any truth to the idea of S&P inclusion limiting this kind of SP range control? If every massive mutual fund and ETF in the world needed to to hold tons of shares, might it be more difficult to move SP up or down?

 

[Krugerrand]

Can't do weaving, then try knitting

Only way to learn is to try.
Go on sell 1 CC for Aug 20 - 1300 against 100 shares and pocket like 1500 bucks then go out and buy more wool.
Surely even if you loose 100 shares @ 1300, island is still intact

That’s blasphemy! All of it; knitting, putting 100 shares on the table for essentially FREE!!

Where the heck is a moderator when you need one?!

So, um...this actually sounds too good to be true. I’m suspicious.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Fairly certain that's the case, but it feels like there's a "coordinated disinterest" in any major moves when we should really be more volatile to the upside given our historic pattern. Maybe there's a breaking point event this summer, but doesn't it feel like everyone somehow knows S&P inclusion isn't happening any time soon?

Is there any truth to the idea of S&P inclusion limiting this kind of SP range control? If every massive mutual fund and ETF in the world needed to to hold tons of shares, might it be more difficult to move SP up or down?

Definitely feels like the market thinks that a Q2 profit and thus S&P inclusion is off the table. They have time because the Q2 P/D will give some partial insight into Q2 earnings, but there really won't be anyway of knowing credits, FSD revenue recognition, etc.. until Q2 earnings. So we probably have another near two months of this

Unless of course they post something like 85-90k deliveries in the Q2 P/D report.

 

[thx1139]

There's no way Tesla can just ramp up the production on the Tesla cell to the amount of replacing output from Panasonic. The easiest and painless way is to create higher tier of product, S/X Plaid and 3/Y Long Range Plus and limit the demand by $$$$$. Everyone stays happy that way and less bickering/moaning.

Sorta saying the same thing. So maybe the new battery 3 costs a few 1000 more then the new price of the 3.

Maybe the new battery in a 3 costs $5K more then the existing battery.
Maybe the new battery in a S/X costs $10K more then the existing battery.

 

[StealthP3D]

Dude I respect your opinions, but let's not start patronizing. (there is patreon with paid subscribers for that)
Let's leave it at there are many ways to skin a cat. Let's say you are in top 10% of folks who have had an impact for me here on TMC, but doesn't mean I will follow or agree everything you say.

A while back I said "Cash is King" - you wrote a long piece on that as well. many blogs later I read that you had a lot sitting in cash etc etc.
So while I read and learn from others I follow what I know (& learn from my mistakes)

Cheers once again

I don't know how it's patronizing to offer observations that I believe could help you become a more effective investor. Especially when it's based upon the one thing that is probably most responsible for Tesla's success - viewing the world in a first-principles sort of way. Cash sitting in your account has very few attributes when viewed from a first-principles perspective. This can be used to your advantage. Or not. It doesn't matter to me.

I offer my observations without strings attached.

 

[Mich]

there's nothing to see here.

 

[Mich]

why the takeoff?

 

[StealthP3D]

A while back I said "Cash is King" - you wrote a long piece on that as well. many blogs later I read that you had a lot sitting in cash etc etc.
So while I read and learn from others I follow what I know (& learn from my mistakes)

I can explain that. When you sell appreciated options and stocks in your account it turns into cash in your account. The fact that I didn't immediately redeploy it shouldn't be surprising - it's called strategy. And everyone will have a different one depending upon individual situations. But some things are universal. And one of them is the cash in your account doesn't care where it came from - it's just cash. Assigning it attributes that it doesn't have can affect your performance as an investor.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Shhh! Don't say anything!

Edit: Awwww....

 

[Christine69420]

According to these sources I think new Teslas are arriving in Europe this quarter:

TeslaScout

Since May 22. about 110 new cars are added to the inventory.

And some tweets: Login on Twitter

 

[vikings123]

why the takeoff?

It's not really a take off but mostly a reaction to call option buyers stepping in. That's really the only way TSLA moves without any news. Such low volume too, nothing to see here. We will see it pushed down to 820 soon and probably close around 815. We might see 835 today If it breaks 825 with good volume. Not holding my breath though.

 

[AlMc]

Definitely feels like the market thinks that a Q2 profit and thus S&P inclusion is off the table. They have time because the Q2 P/D will give some partial insight into Q2 earnings, but there really won't be anyway of knowing credits, FSD revenue recognition, etc.. until Q2 earnings. So we probably have another near two months of this

Unless of course they post something like 85-90k deliveries in the Q2 P/D report.

I believe the price action within a fairly tight (for TSLA) range is because the 'market' does not know IF Q2 will produce results that would allow for SP500 inclusion. Neither bull nor bear seems willing to push the price up or down in this 'it is too close to call' scenario.

 

[Tslynk67]

I believe the price action within a fairly tight (for TSLA) range is because the 'market' does not know IF Q2 will produce results that would allow for SP500 inclusion. Neither bull nor bear seems willing to push the price up or down in this 'it is too close to call' scenario.

Also this, yes. Position yourselves people!!

For my part I intend to be in cash for the downside, but have Jan '21 $875's which are currently breaking-even, but will pay handsomely in event of going ITM

 

[ggr]

Where the heck is a moderator when you need one?!

You rang? What do you need a moderator for?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I believe the price action within a fairly tight (for TSLA) range is because the 'market' does not know IF Q2 will produce results that would allow for SP500 inclusion. Neither bull nor bear seems willing to push the price up or down in this 'it is too close to call' scenario.

True, though I don't see much a sell-side event if Tesla doesn't post a profit and thus doesn't get S&P inclusion for Q2. Reason being, I would have to imagine funds and buyers would see that Q3 profit and then S&P inclusion is a lock. Idk, you might get a 1 or 2 day dip if Q2 P/D are low or Q2 earnings post a loss. But by the time those events get here, everyone is going to be paying attention to Q3. There would have to be some serious red flags that came up in the Q2 earnings report like a crash in margins, etc..for me to think it will be a sell event.

So yes I definitely agree everyone is sitting on the sidelines right now. But if you're a big time fund that is either long on Tesla or wants to accumulate, now is the time in my opinion. Waiting for the Q2 P/D and/or Q2 earnings will be too late. I just don't see a sell event happening with a monster quarter like Q3 just sitting there on the horizon.

If we do stay in this tight range of 775-840 until Q2 P/D numbers and they're above expectations(in the 85k-90k range), I could see a huge move. To me it's like a risk of 5% down verses 20% upside when it comes to risk/reward for the Q2 P/D report.