Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVortex]

Per July 2020 Road&Track, page 64, the Cadillac EV sedan "will be hand-built in very small numbers, and could cost upwards of $200,000 ...". Another case of what might have been potential Tesla competition disappearing into the ether.

Very very very small numbers.

 

[Mo City]

Electrek - hour ago: Tesla is taking design submissions for its Chinese-made small electric car - Electrek

This will be the primary output of the second Chinese GF.

 

[FrankSG]

In my case, and I think for others, July 2021 is a big landmark. First cars coming out of Germany... but there are rumours this might happen sooner

I think Wall Street hasn't even fully realized what Shanghai phase 1 and Model Y will do to Tesla's financials, let alone Shanghai phase 2, let alone Berlin/Texas.

Tesla can produce ~175k vehicles per quarter as of the end of Q1, but due to COVID-19 it's going to take until Q3/Q4 until it'll show up in the financials.

I posted about this 2 weeks ago, but my bearish expectation for Q4 beats the most bullish analyst's expectation, and is way way above the average analyst's expectation.

Wall Street's expectations for Q3/Q4 are at about the same level as Q4'19 results, with only revenue being marginally higher.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I think Wall Street hasn't even fully realized what Shanghai phase 1 and Model Y will do to Tesla's financials, let alone Shanghai phase 2, let alone Berlin/Texas.

Tesla can produce ~175k vehicles per quarter as of the end of Q1, but due to COVID-19 it's going to take until Q3/Q4 until it'll show up in the financials.

I posted about this 2 weeks ago, but my bearish expectation for Q4 beats the most bullish analyst's expectation, and is way way above the average analyst's expectation.

Wall Street's expectations for Q3/Q4 are at about the same level as Q4'19 results, with only revenue being marginally higher.

I've been very comfortable buying in the 800's and 900's while increasing how oversized my tesla position is in my portfolio because my expectations for Q3 and Q4 are pretty much identical to yours. It's honestly amazing to me that after Q1 earnings, which showed the power of the FCA credits and Tesla’s margin expansion on limited scale production of MIC 3 and the Y, that wall st and the general sentiment here was that 900 for Tesla right now was overvalued or even fair value.

Q1 one showed the earnings potential of Q3 and Q4. All you have to do is then apply that to the production capability in Q3 and Q4 to see that Tesla is set to have amazing 2nd half of 2020.

I've maintained that I think the stock will at least be at 1,500 by the end of the year barring any positive surprises. The Semi was one of those surprises that could easily lead to a share price of higher than 1,500 by end of the year.

 

[MC3OZ]

https://www.smh.com.au/business/mar...s-a-monster-debt-problem-20200616-p5531h.html

That helps explain why investors, mainly retail, are buying shares in bankrupt companies such as Hertz or highly-leveraged and distressed retailers like J.C.Penney in the belief that the Fed’s interventions will produce a rising tide that will lift all boats, even the sunken ones.

This is my only real issue with a V-shaped recovery and stimulus... even if the majority has a V-shaped recovery, some don't, and stimulus can't save everyone....

To be clear I don't think this is an issue for Tesla, but there are many other shares which are bad bets...

 

[Nocturnal]

I've been dabbling at selling covered calls lately with some decent success. This will be my last week selling for a while I think, at least selling anywhere close to being in the money. We have the typical Tesla volatility, combined with real fundamental changes in the company, plus weak competitors, and to top it off fiscal and monetary policy that wants to light a fire under the whole market.

 

[Zaxxon]

Pretty exciting times for Tesla investors. Aside from battery day, deliveries really ramping up during a pandemic, etc etc...

Tesla: We've got four EVs that go over 300 miles on a charge.
Literally no one else:
Tesla: Ok, we've got an EV that'll go 400 miles on a charge.



Tesla: We've got a Gigafactory that can produce tens of GWh of batteries annually, and another that will shortly do the same while also churning out hundreds of thousands of EVs annually.
Literally no one else:
Tesla:

 

[AZRI11]

ISS (not the one up there) wants a vote against Robin Denholm. Something about stock options for execs have increased by 37.6% since she’s been chair. Article was posted by Reuters.

This is the researcher who recommends the "no" vote.
https://twitter.com/robertdkalb/status/1272633828545310723?s=19

 

[ZeApelido]

The fact that even a third of TMC members don't expect this to happen until after November 2021 makes me more bullish it could happen off of Q3/Q4 2020.

Barring unexpected bad things happening, Q3 & Q4 2020 are going to be far above what the market (and perhaps even TMC?) is expecting.

This is my thought and why I voted in the Jan 2021 slot - this includes Q4 earnings report. If bigly positive and there's more FSD progress, I could see it happening.

 

[Artful Dodger]

"Volkswagen, Where Are You Going?"

June 15th, 2020 by Alex Voigt

Volkswagen, Where Are You Going? | CleanTechnica

Last Thursday, in a management meeting, the Group CEO informed his peers of some more unpleasant truths — intended just for a small management group and declared as confidential. Quote:

“One of the unpleasant truths is that in China our market leadership is not a law of nature. (…) In China, the leader in electric cars is now called Tesla.

“It will be years before we have reached the necessary level of expertise in software to be able to compete at the forefront. (…) Even today, hardly a line of software code comes from us.”​

Despite confidentiality agreements (and as top managers you trust that information is kept in a small group), it was leaked to the press instead and created negative, not wished for attention about the true situation of VW in comparison to, for instance, Tesla.​

Tagging @avoigt

 

[LN1_Casey]

On the Tesla announcement, they say

Several lessons from the engineering design and manufacturing of Model 3 and Model Y have now been carried over to Model S and Model X.

and people were concerned that the S and X didn’t get any goodies any more.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I agree. The recognition of Tesla's true long term value and standing in auto and energy markets will almost surely be front-loaded. As their dominance is recognized, their share value will reflect that. It won't track with earnings but, rather, with expectations of future earnings.

What this probably means for investors is that the old rule of thumb holds true - The early bird gets the biggest worm!

Gahhhh FOMO alert.

 

[Cherry Wine]

On the Tesla announcement, they say



and people were concerned that the S and X didn’t get any goodies any more.

Link?

 

[LN1_Casey]

Link?

Model S Long Range Plus: Building the First 400-Mile Electric Vehicle

Posted a couple pages back.

 

[CaliBear1]

It should be CelestiQ.

The Celestiq isn't designed to compete with Model S or Roadster.

But Rolls Royce,Bentley and Maybach.

Supposed to be GM's attempt to reclaim the title "Standard of the World" for Cadillac.

I read a while back a GM executive said the Celestiq will "start" at $200k.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Ron Baron in 2017:

Ron Baron also says $10k by 2030. I don't see any reason why he might be wrong, not that I'm a billionaire investor or anything.

 

[wipster]

Hey, if yer gonna be up at 3:30 anyway, might as well buy some TSLA. Promise not to peek.

Cheers!

Make it so!

 

[CorneliusXX]

Model S Long Range Plus: Building the First 400-Mile Electric Vehicle

Starting today, all North American Model S Long Range Plus vehicles have an official EPA-rated range of 402 miles, representing a nearly 20% increase in range when compared to a 2019 Model S 100D with the same battery pack design.

EDIT: Now when does the EPA apologize for these headlines? The EPA denies Elon Musk's claim that an open door hurt the Model S' range estimate

That's a 50% increase in range in 8 years while the MSRP of the top spec hasn't increased (going by internet searches, 2012 pricing is difficult to find). In that time there's been a 17% increase in inflation - so that's a 77% increase in range per $.

This ignores the benefits of having standard dual motors, a 2s increase in 0-60, vastly superior software, upgraded electronics, the entire supercharging network, etc, etc.

About the only items that are worse are the lack of unlimited free supercharging (although as mentioned above, the network was non-existent at the start of 2012) and residual value guarantee.

 

[CorneliusXX]

With the Fed buying Corporate bonds now, if Tesla does need capital, why would they 'AJ' it? That's $300M in fees saved for every $2B raised in capital.

And I bet the Fed interest rate on those bonds is a tad better than the dilution we get from a cap raise.

Cheers!

The Fed is only buying investment grade bonds - Moody's has screwed us yet again with their lethargic rating system.

 

[AZRI11]

Trillion dollar infrastructure bill. That's about 400 miles of nyc subways pre-market likes
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?