Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[vikings123]

EDIT: Pre-market High: $1,003.58 (04:35:50 AM)

This upgrade might have something to do with it.

 

[Tslynk67]

I read on Twitter that Jefferies has raised $TSLA to $1200 and upgraded to BUY - don't have a link though...

Edit:

Edit 2: wait for it, "Morgan Stanley downgrades $TSLA from $650 to $645"...

 

[FrankSG]

Tesla has already announced that this provision is in effect for their European sales, as of their last 10-Q filing. So it'll be partial recognition at, and scaling with European sales.

Are we talking about different things? What provision is in effect for their EU sales?

The "two things" I was referring to were TTM GAAP Profits and S&P 500 inclusion.

 

[LN1_Casey]

https://twitter.com/mortenlund89/status/1273542062290370561

The Grand Venus has landed in the EU; begin disembarking.

Any peeps in the area up to a little stalkng?

 

[junas]

https://twitter.com/mortenlund89/status/1273542062290370561

The Grand Venus has landed in the EU; begin disembarking.

Any peeps in the area up to a little stalkng?

My friend just got a message from Tesla that his vehicle is ready for delivery on 29th June. Original delivery date was supposed to be in September.

It takes additional ~4 days on the sea from Zeebrugge to Vuosaari. If they can ship cars to Finland on time for Q2 it means the rest of Europe is pretty easy too.

 

[Thekiwi]

So there is this article on axios Corporate America reaps windfalls from coronavirus tax breaks about companies getting large cash windfalls due to the generous loss carrybacks enabled by the Covid-19 relief acts passed over the last few months.

anyone know if Tesla could be poised for a similar windfall in Q2?

• Net operating loss carryback: Companies can take any operating losses they recorded in 2018, 2019 and 2020 and apply them to any of the previous five years to offset profits — in essence, they would be recouping taxes they already paid.
  
  
• Employee retention tax credit: Companies that continue to keep people employed during the pandemic get a 50% tax credit to subsidize their workers' wages, up to $5,000 per worker.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Are we talking about different things? What provision is in effect for their EU sales?

The "two things" I was referring to were TTM GAAP Profits and S&P 500 inclusion.

For background, this is the comment that triggered this discussion here on TMC:

The Accountant, Feb 13, 2020 | tagging @The Accountant

"The annual 10-K comment on the Deferred Tax Valuation Allowance has been consistent for many years....except for this year."​

Here, I'm referring specifically to Tesla's 2019 10-K (Feb 9, 2020) on deferred tax allowances / Valuation Allowance (VA) for the non-US portion of Tesla's business: (pg 114)

• "As of December 31, 2019, we recorded a valuation allowance of $1.96 billion for the portion of the deferred tax asset that we do not expect to be realized."
• "We have net $151 million of deferred tax assets in foreign jurisdictions, which management believes are more-likely-than-not to be fully realized given the expectation of future earnings in these jurisdictions.
• "We continue to monitor the realizability of the U.S. deferred tax assets taking into account multiple factors, including the results of operations and magnitude of excess tax deductions for stock-based compensation."

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

TSLA set (yet) another record yesterday (Wed, Jun 17, 2020) that nobody has mentioned:

Highest Intra-day-Low SP: $982.57 ​

Cheers!

 

[X Fan]

View attachment 553024

Lol @ Charley Grant and his reply (a shot @ Elon)......

btw: Fred's Model Y hit piece has legs this morning and picked up by a number of sources.

 

[Artful Dodger]

08:00 a.m. Whistle: SP: $1,002.00 Pre-market Volume: 101,975

Cheers!

 

[LN1_Casey]

btw: Fred's Model Y hit piece has legs this morning and picked up by a number of sources.

Of course it was; they're trying to give reason for the SP to go down with the bots.

 

[Unpilot]

Here is what I think of when I see these hit pieces come out.
These are the folks trying to keep the hope of Tesla dying afloat.

 

[The Accountant]

I'm glad you brought this back up - i've been thinking about it also...if not q2 then certainly q3 I would think.

once they do recognize this - it essentially improves their cash position, right? if so this would be another source for funding expansion

Your comment on the Deferred Tax Allowance improving the cash position is correct in the following way:

Tesla has about $1.9B of deferred tax benefits not recognized (most of it in the USA I believe). When they recognize these benefits, it means that they will pay no taxes on the first $6.7B of pre-tax US income (I estimate they have a 29% US tax rate $6.7B x 29% = 1.9B).
So for a few years while Tesla is profitable, they will pay very little in taxes until most of these benefits are exhausted.

 

[elasalle]

View attachment 553024

TSLA haters piling into NKLA will get double whammied.
Short TSLA, LONG NKLA ... ha ha OK

I am waiting for the Badger revel, to go the other way

 

[The Accountant]

In the case of Twitter it happened 2 quarters after TTM GAAP Profit and S&P 500 inclusion had been secured.

Tesla still hasn't secured either of these, so, although not impossible, I highly doubt this will happen in Q2. I'd currently put my money on Q4, but it's a bit of a guessing game. I wonder how @The Accountant feels about this.

For anyone wondering what we're talking about here, there's a $1.95B valuation allowance on Tesla's balance sheet, which will at some point in the not too distant future provide a big boost to financials. I wrote a blog post about this in January explaining how this all works:

Tesla's $1.8B Valuation Allowance

@TexasGator It would do nothing to Tesla's cash position. There's more details in the blog post, but it's kind of like Tesla will suddenly be given almost $2B in tax credits, which it can use over the next decade or so.

I agree with everything you said. I want to add a few points for clarity since this is a difficult topic.

- While Tesla was losing $7B over the past 15 years, they should have been recording $1.9B in Tax Income (income not expense) because these loses would be offset with future income of up to $7B (It's a tax benefit).
- They did not recognize the $1.9B because there was no certainty (more likely than not) that they would ever be profitable.
- Once it becomes "more likely than not" that they will be profitable, they can recorded all or a portion of the $1.9B to income.
- Most of this benefit relates to US taxable losses and thus they would need to convince the auditors (PwC) that US taxable income in the future is more likely than not.
- I agree with @FrankSG 's point that Q4 2020 may be when Tesla first recognizes a portion this tax benefit to the income statement. It will be important that the auditors believe future US profitability is more likely than not. With a powerful Q4 2020, this should convince them.

 

[Tslynk67]

TSLA haters piling into NKLA will get double whammied.
Short TSLA, LONG NKLA ... ha ha OK

I am waiting for the Badger revel, to go the other way

TBH I do wish $TSLA folks just kept away from $NKLA, they're becoming $NKLAQ and for me that's a bad look.

So yeah, I think $NKLA is a pile of excrement and I can't resist a bit of a LOL and the odd "like", but I refuse to get drawn into slagging them off as part of my life.

And yeah, I don't like the guy, he's a BS artist, and I think his lawsuit against Tesla is frivolous and pathetic, but I resist.

So laugh, but otherwise I'll ignore.

Good luck to them.

 

[TexasGator]

I agree with everything you said. I want to add a couple of points for clarity since this is a difficult topic.

- While Tesla was losing $7B over the past 15 years, they should have been recording $1.9B in Tax Income (income not expense) because these loses would be offset with future income of up to $7B (It's a tax benefit).
- They did not recognize the $1.9B because there was no certainty (more likely than not) that they would ever be profitable.
- Once it becomes "more likely than not" that they will be profitable, they can recorded all or a portion of the $1.9B to income.
- Most of this benefit relates to US taxable losses and thus they would need to convince the auditors (PwC) that US taxable income in the future is more likely than not.
- I agree with @FrankSG 's point that Q4 2020 may be when Tesla first recognizes a portion this tax benefit to the income statement. It will be important that the auditors believe future US profitability is more likely than not. With a powerful Q4 2020, this should convince them.

thanks to you and FrankSG - makes sense. So looking at Franks Bear Case going forward from the quarterly projections thread- this could improve profitability and cash through 2021 and likely into 2022 (depends on split between US and overseas tax)

 

[Mike Smith]

Ford announces ‘Hands-Free’ mode with driver-facing camera for Mustang Mach-E - Electrek

'We carefully select the names for our features. We make them intuitive. We don’t over-promise or imply that the features can do more than they can.'
-Ford

...as they call a system that monitors your eyes so that you're ready to take over WITH YOUR HANDS "hands-free".

 

[willow_hiller]

Good morning, TSLA

 

[elasalle]

TBH I do wish $TSLA folks just kept away from $NKLA, they're becoming $NKLAQ and for me that's a bad look.

So yeah, I think $NKLA is a pile of excrement and I can't resist a bit of a LOL and the odd "like", but I refuse to get drawn into slagging them off as part of my life.

And yeah, I don't like the guy, he's a BS artist, and I think his lawsuit against Tesla is frivolous and pathetic, but I resist.

So laugh, but otherwise I'll ignore.

Good luck to them.

Difference.
Just take advantage of the info(trading). Not planning on trying extra hard to ensure they will fail (full NKLAQ). Cheers!!