Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Silent Ludicrosy]

I don't know where this idea that "Autopilot" implies more capability than provided. As far as I can discern, it's just made up by detractors - It's actually a very historically accurate, descriptive and applicable name for the current capabilities of Tesla's implementation. Why Ford would imply otherwise is simply not logical.

Let's explore the term and it's common usage and meanings before Tesla adopted it:

From Vocabulary.com:


Merriam-Webster


Etymonline.com


Wikipedia:


The first fishing boat I worked on was built in 1919 and still had the original autopilot. It had an electric motor controlled by two contacts that were tripped as the compass rotated around. You simply set your heading and the electric motor would steer the rudder left and right to keep the set heading between the two contacts. It liked to weave and wander and was unusable depending upon the boats heading to the waves and their size. The manufacturer proudly called it "Iron Mike", implying that it was a machine that could do the job of a human.

Later fishing boats I worked on had more modern, much more capable autopilots. But none of them could detect logs in the water, water too shallow for the draft of the boat, etc. They couldn't adjust the speed of the boat either, only hold a set course.

Airplanes are what I think popularized the term "Autopilot". While I'm not an expert on autopilots, it's clear the term started with devices to hold a magnetic course. Autopilot did not denote a device that would avoid flocks of birds or other airplanes, or be able to operate without operator oversight. It was simply a device to unload the tedium of maintaining a course and, later, speed and altitude. It did not replace a human or take evasive action.

In terms of the supposed controversy that the term misleads drivers by implying it does more than it's capable of, it might be instructive to look at the use of the term in popular culture. Vocabulary.com provides this: "The slang meaning of autopilot is "out of habit," as when a sleep-deprived worker goes through his whole day on autopilot." Even in popular culture, the term is used for something that is just a semblance of control, not fully alert and aware of everything around.

So it's really baffling where the idea came from that Tesla's use of the term implies more capability than exists. If anything, it offers MORE capabilities than the term denotes in its ability to take evasive action or apply the brakes if the operator is negligent in monitoring the environment.

I agree, Tesla’s autopilot is more capable than many aircraft autopilots. Many can only do things like heading and altitude hold, and some don’t have autothrottle. When responding to any abnormal situation like a traffic conflict or unusual attitude, pilots are trained to disengage the autopilot and autothrottles immediately.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Pretty sure we could get 3 analyst upgrades today and the stock won't move much farther. Gotta keep 1,000 in trading distance for tomorrow

 

[Krugerrand]

Thank you but I don’t get it. No, no. It’s not you, it’s me. I got lost at ‘tax income’.

If options is like advanced basket weaving with spider silk, accounting is like — I’ll get back to you on that; I need a nap.

I know; it’s like nailing a 4” spike into oak with a toothpick.

 

[lafrisbee]

Ummm...that's what I said. That I think it will help TSLA when the Nikola bubble pops.

Gotcha. I should have clearly stated that I don't see even a short term negativity to Tesla. Even before Nikola dies tesla I seen as its competition in the articles.
I can even see the timing of the Tesla Semi being orchestrated so it has maximum exposure as the reason Nikola never came to market. And THAT being the bigger story.
While I am on it...no perhaps another post....

 

[The Accountant]

Thank you but I don’t get it. No, no. It’s not you, it’s me. I got lost at ‘tax income’.

If options is like advanced basket weaving with spider silk, accounting is like — I’ll get back to you on that; I need a nap.

LOL
I would estimate that 9 out of 10 Certified Public Accountants do not understand Deferred Taxes.
It's difficult to understand and most CPAs do not work in this area.

Here is a simple way to look at it.

On the schedule above, when a company has losses of $7B, they could record $1.95B in Tax Income because these losses will offset what they have to pay in the future. The $7B in losses offsets the $7B in Income.

This is what Tesla did:

Since Tesla did not record the $1.95B tax income in years 1-16, they will be able to recognize it in the future years.
It is possible they will record it all in one year or over a few years. Once the auditors are comforable that Tesla can show pre-tax income on an Annual basis, they will bring some or all of the $1.95B to the Income Statement. It counts as GAAP income.

 

[StealthP3D]

Gotcha. I should have clearly stated that I don't see even a short term negativity to Tesla.

I agree that a short-term negative impact is unlikely, I'm just saying that depending upon how the two stories unfold, and how the Nikola bubble pops or deflates, there is the outside chance for there to be a perceptible negative impact to Tesla briefly, particularly if they both run up to sky-high levels between now and then. The future is difficult to see but this isn't my first rodeo.

 

[lafrisbee]

I've stated, I can't buy a call. I don't even know how, and am too lazy to try.
But I HODL (most of the time).
And so I love all the FUD articles about how Tesla is sucking hind tit on a boar hog, and about how few cars will be made by Tesla this Quarter...I even love the lagging stock price forecasts that the investment companies quote for TSLA.
First the laughably low P&D numbers... When(if?) Tesla outperforms those numbers by a significant amount the articles can't be FUDisized.
And yet if the P&D predictions are too high (even by a single M3) the press would really have a "cold hard fact" about how bad tesla has become for their next headline.
And second, it's an easy thing for even the dummy investor like me to see when the stock price forecast is continually lagging behind the real price. I see the action as the best possible scenario... the stock screaming higher than the prognosticators can even imagine, and them playing catch-up to try and not look clueless.
If the analysts were correctly predicting the paths of tesla it would be a red flag to me that TSLA is over, especially if they were correct in the future price. I am not saying TSLA falls to the current predicted forecast prices. I am saying if the investment companies were able to correctly predict how high TSLA was going to do go then Elon's Machine would be running out of fuel .
Right now I see the Financial institutions as I do the Legacy Car Companies when it comes to understanding and imaging what TSLA can/will do.

 

[Krugerrand]

LOL
I would estimate that 9 out of 10 Certified Public Accountants do not understand Deferred Taxes.
It's difficult to understand and most CPAs do not work in this area.

Here is a simple way to look at it.
View attachment 553129

On the schedule above, when a company has losses of $7B, they could record $1.95B in Tax Income because these losses will offset what they have to pay in the future. The $7B in losses offsets the $7B in Income.

This is what Tesla did:
View attachment 553133

Since Tesla did not record the $1.95B tax income in years 1-16, they will be able to recognize it in the future years.
It is possible they will record it all in one year or over a few years. Once the auditors are comforable that Tesla can show pre-tax income on an Annual basis, they will bring some or all of the $1.95B to the Income Statement. It counts as GAAP income.

Nope.

I understand deferred. I understand what Tesla did. I do not understand ‘tax income’. When is tax ever ‘income’? Is this reference to ‘collecting’ tax on each car? So they ‘collected’ 1.95B in taxes from car/solar/product sales that they have not yet paid to the state and country (Fed)?

 

[computerchuck]

Hello friends,

RE: Telsa Model Y quality sucks FUD

As you know, there are many unsavory reports from media, bloggers, and even TMC members concerning this topic.

My Model Y order was placed in Dec and will be picking it up tomorrow am. I’ll be looking closely and taking notes. This may be a good and true random sample. If given an opportunity, I'll also examine all other model Ys at the delivery center.

I truly hope that the vast majority (80% or more) of Model Ys coming from the factory are good.

My VIN is 185xx, and is still the highest reported on TMC. Edit: someone reported a VIN of 189xx.

To be continued......

 

[Nocturnal]

Hello friends,

RE: Telsa Model Y quality sucks FUD

As you know, there are many unsavory reports from media, bloggers, and even TMC members concerning this topic.

My Model Y order was placed in Dec and will be picking it up in two days. I’ll be looking closely and taking notes. This may be a good and true random sample. If given an opportunity, I'll also examine all other model Ys at the delivery center.

I truly hope that the vast majority (80% or more) of Model Ys coming from the factory are good.

My VIN is 185xx, and is still the highest reported on TMC. Edit: someone reported a VIN of 189xx.

To be continued......

The guys in my local club that have received their Y haven't reported anything major. FWIW.

 

[dl003]

Nope.

I understand deferred. I understand what Tesla did. I do not understand ‘tax income’. When is tax ever ‘income’? Is this reference to ‘collecting’ tax on each car? So they ‘collected’ 1.95B in taxes from car/solar/product sales that they have not yet paid to the state and country (Fed)?

Think of 'deferred tax income' as a 'credit'. When you make a profit, you owe the government money in the form of taxes. When you incur a loss, however, the government kind of 'subsidizes' your loss by promising you that you can deduct this loss against future year profits. So while you don't get any money from the government in the future, you still get the 'credit' by not having to pay taxes on those profits. You recognize deferred tax income by not having to pay the government the money that you would have to pay otherwise. The reason for the confusion is that although it's called income, no money actually changes hand in the year when the loss is incurred or the year when it's recognized; you have to wait until you actually post a profit to recognize this credit as income. It's an accrued non-cash item on your book. As you get the credit (incurring a loss), the credit is an asset. When you recognize it (posting a subsequent profit), it becomes an income.

 

[lafrisbee]

i just found 11 grand. I am thinking tomorrow around close will be the best time to buy a few more shares...or does someone's crystal ball see a dip due to some weird stock market thing further in the future that I should wait for.
And is it a very normal thing to wait for triple witching day to purchase shares?
or perhaps buys some crazy Call option? Is there one? (Although I am probably just going to add to HODL.)
What would you do?

 

[dl003]

i just found 11 grand. I am thinking tomorrow around close will be the best time to buy a few more shares...or does someone's crystal ball see a dip due to some weird stock market thing further in the future that I should wait for.
And is it a very normal thing to wait for triple witching day to purchase shares?
or perhaps buys some crazy Call option? Is there one? (Although I am probably just going to add to HODL.)
What would you do?

You must have a huge dryer. That's where I usually find my lost money.
Friday is as good as any day to buy, IMO.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Tesla could get more than $60 million in tax breaks to choose site in Travis County

Tesla could get more than $60 million in tax breaks to choose site in Travis County

Article in the Austin Statesman regarding Gigafactory tax incentives being offered to Tesla from the Del Valle school district. The site under consideration is a good ways south of the previously rumored Hutto site, near Austin-Bergstrom airport.

This is the first report I’ve read with Tesla quotes.

'A potential incentives deal with the Del Valle school district will be a key factor in deciding where to locate the facility, Tesla said in its application for the Chapter 313 agreement.

“Local and state tax incentives serve a critical role in getting the project approved and operating successfully,” the company said. “This is especially critical in Texas due to the high level of real and personal property taxes relative to other states. Since school taxes are the largest component of local property taxes, the Section 313 tax limitation is especially critical to create a level playing field between Texas and other state vying for this project. Therefore, obtaining the 313 limitation is a determining factor in the decision whether to locate the project in Texas.”'

 

[phantasms]

i just found 11 grand. I am thinking tomorrow around close will be the best time to buy a few more shares...or does someone's crystal ball see a dip due to some weird stock market thing further in the future that I should wait for.
And is it a very normal thing to wait for triple witching day to purchase shares?
or perhaps buys some crazy Call option? Is there one? (Although I am probably just going to add to HODL.)
What would you do?

I usually buy Friday at close and it nearly always is a good play. I’m tempted to go in deep EOD Friday but will be watching COVID / Macros carefully before pulling the trigger this time around.

 

[MartinAustin]

i just found 11 grand. I am thinking tomorrow around close will be the best time to buy a few more shares...or does someone's crystal ball see a dip due to some weird stock market thing further in the future that I should wait for.
And is it a very normal thing to wait for triple witching day to purchase shares?
or perhaps buys some crazy Call option? Is there one? (Although I am probably just going to add to HODL.)
What would you do?

I can think of two ways to work this -
1) TSLA is more or less at its all-time-high today, so there is clearly downside... do not buy until it has fallen.
2) TSLA is more or less at its all-time-high today because things are going well for the company, and it's likely to keep climbing.

The prior ATH was about $950 so it has been at new ATH's all the way up to $1025. And of course it has climbed from about $250 this time last year. Will it stop climbing and reverse direction today? (no reason exists to say that)

Is there some recent new headwind for the company? Certainly not. The COVID-19 dip has passed, and its effects on earnings are totally expected. Nothing has happened to the company with regard to demand, developments from rivals, factory accidents or problems, R&D issues, key staff departing or anything.

Do recent developments indicate a rosy future for the company? Two additional factories under construction, Shanghai construction almost complete leading to massive sales & market share in China (the world's largest auto market and a country that is screaming out for BEVs). Model Y received positively and expected to dominate. Semi expected to do well. Cybertruck has huge orders and while the manufacturing process and owner repairs/daily living with a stainless steel vehicle have yet to be proven out, it looks like it will be a big hit. Roadster = good halo vehicle if not a massive revenue contributor. Proprietary charging network all over the world is growing in density and charging speed and continues to work easily/safely for users. New powertrain and battery technology is about to improve range/charging/performance/profitability. AND there is full-self-driving software coming soon. All of these items appear to be groundbreaking and/or leading in their field. Is there anything else? PHEW.

In other words my expectation is that this stock will continue to climb so there is no risk in sinking ALL of your $11,000 into TSLA right now. if you want to, buy one stock at time each day or something.

 

[wipster]

So hopefully this was just the MMD? I just feel better when the SP is 4 digits...

 

[Jack6591]

So hopefully this was just the MMD? I just feel better when the SP is 4 digits...

I have been studying punctuation of late, and having immersed myself into the subject, I am convinced that TSLA’s share price should include a comma.

 

[wipster]

I have been studying punctuation of late, and having immersed myself into the subject, I am convinced that TSLA’s share price should include a comma.

Indeed

 

[capster]

It is also much easier to stay long if you don't follow news very closely, just buy and check back in five years. Once you start checking it is very easy to get into FOMO / what if mode; could have sold at 900 and rebought at 300 etc. So I guess what some here do is play both - core shares long, but play shares available for the adrenaline rush

...

I understand, but there are problems with trying to play both:

* There aren’t a lot of Olympic marathoners who are also power weight lifters. Playing the short term will create urgency. This and the rush you mention are at odds with the calm, distant mindset that is at the foundation of the long view.

* If you spend a lot of time training yourself to watch the trees, you will have spent less time learning to read the growth and changes in the forest. Understanding the forest is harder, but more valuable. Though, yes, you still need to be aware of the trees that constitute the forest.

* Individual investors who take the long view can put time on their side. Itchy finger traders compete against the youngest, fastest hireling traders as well as against machines who both have the advantage when it comes to speed.

* Further, you are exposing your reward circuitry to those who are learned in the ways of exploiting such. Truly, you are walking into the spiders’ parlor.

I follow the news closely and I follow this thread, so I do get it with respect to the temptations of FOMO and short term thinking. Perhaps because I spent so long in automotive R&D, in which projects are managed on an annual cycle, I am more able to resist these temptations (I mean it’s not like I’ve never thought about playing at options trading). I also continue to read books that I deem relevant which also tends to temper one’s thinking.