Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Makes one wonder at what point we will stray too far away from fundamentals. If a big chunk of that $2B is one-time deferred tax income, shouldn't market largely ignore it?

Lol, Q1 2019 was a 'one-time' logistics problem, but the market largely jumped on it.

Money is fungible. Wall St. mostly doesn't care about its source.

I think @FrankSG has blogged about past cases where the VA was used to augment profits for years after they became available, ie: Amazon

Cheers!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

OT but interesting for market sentiment

Just had the locksmith at the house to fix a door/lock in the garage. He was here a year ago. Always gets excited when he sees the Model S. He noticed I had a brand-new one this time and we got to talking.

And that's when he shared his views on the company--views entirely coming from his exposure to the media:
• It's too bad the company is having such financial difficulties
• "It's all about the taxes"
• "They're doing all kinds of things so as not to get hit with taxes"
• Oh, and the "subsidies" keyword was mentioned, of course

His general tone was, such a shame the company's going under. The implication was, why would you buy ANOTHER Tesla knowing the company's going down the tubes.

I did my best to assure him the company is actually in pretty good shape, and in fact is now the most valuable automaker in the entire world, more valuable than even Toyota. You could see the blank expression on his face, like my statement went right past his ears--it didn't faze him one bit. He just reiterated the dire-straits financial condition of the company, etc. Completely brainwashed.

As Spock would say, it was "fascinating" to observe. Though, exasperating. I could not convince him that his views were, shall we say, in error. It was like talking to someone who'd hung out for beers with Mark Spiegel or Gordon Johnson and all they talked about was Tesla, and now his head was full of information that he assumed was true.

Hey...look on the bright side....if he said:

• I am about to pour my life savings in
• Thinking of buying LEAPS
• My brother's girlfriends dad's barber told me i should buy TSLA stock

Then we know its time to run for the hills!

 

[mongo]

So it's all probability related, but why would risk increase to the downside as well. I think this is deceiving and doesn't represent probability correctly. I'm in favor of a new indicator.

Yeah, what @ggr said.Edit: already fixed Although the usual BB are two standard deviations offset.

It's not really probability, more like volatility. It doesn't predict direction, but rather says "based on the amount and direction the stock is moving around, here is the range it will likely be in in the near future".
Yeah, the downside doesn't seem to make much sense when the stock is on an upward move, but if the rationale behind that move is negated, it could drop back to that level.

 

[Huskyf]

Tesla in the red and Nikola on wide green completly ireal

 

[ggr]

Yeah, what @ggr said. Although the usual BB are two standard deviations offset.

It's not really probability, more like volatility. It doesn't predict direction, but rather says "based on the amount and direction the stock is moving around, here is the range it will likely be in in the near future".
Yeah, the downside doesn't seem to make much sense when the stock is on an upward move, but if the rationale behind that move is negated, it could drop back to that level.

Thanks for the correction, I realized that and fixed it already, just posted too quickly.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Yeah, what @ggr said. Although the usual BB are two standard deviations offset.

It's not really probability, more like volatility. It doesn't predict direction, but rather says "based on the amount and direction the stock is moving around, here is the range it will likely be in in the near future".
Yeah, the downside doesn't seem to make much sense when the stock is on an upward move, but if the rationale behind that move is negated, it could drop back to that level.

Thanks everyone, interesting but probably should be in the technicals thread. Fortunately, Fred jumped in too and there's not a lot going on as I ponder out loud sometimes

Ave Volume so boring again already... $1,400 all week? It just keeps locking into a price and sticking!

 

[ZeApelido]

I'm talking out of my a** here, but I also think in 3D so I have some experience
If I saw something 3 seconds ago, I wouldn't need memory of the entire 3D scene, I would only need the relevant info as it relates to the scene. "A car is coming"... so just need to calculate intersect potential and iterate with that focus. And Focus is key here, which comes with experience (and more FSD sales $$$).

Except to extract only the relevant information from 3 seconds ago would require more than one snapshot of the cameras at that timepoint. At any given time, computer vision algorithms are going to need multiple timeframes (e.g. video) to figure out which objects are relevant. Human brain? You know how massive human brain processing power is for vision? Like orders are magnitude bigger than HW3.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Thanks for the correction, I realized that and fixed it already, just posted too quickly.

I saw that too, but you had a lot of badges under your avatar and I'm just a newbie.

 

[Hock1]

Honestly, folks cashing in gains don't drop the SP $7 in 75 sec before the bottom of the hour like happened at 10:30 today.

That's shorting.

Word.

That is correct. Someone was asking about the spikes that are occurring with more frequency. It is certainly the manipulators' ability to short on downticks. (for those who don't grasp the significance of this, think about it: A legitimate investor (a long) is naturally going to buy as low as possible. A legitimate short, naturally wants to short as high as possible. So any shorting below the market (downtick) is necessarily a manipulative maneuver.)

 

[jbcarioca]

I've been hesitant to speak up about all this chatter about service, because in the past, whenever I did, the moderators deleted my posts and threatened to ban me from TMC.

I'll just say it is pointless to discuss service in this thread, and maybe anywhere on TMC in general, given the prevailing attitudes. You can't win. But for those owners/investors new to this experience, and frustrated by it, know that there are others out there who sympathize and have been there, done that.

And now, watch this post be deleted by the thought police in 3... 2... 1...

You should not be dismissed for having experiences that deviate from the norm. In my personal experience Need for service is very rare. When it happens the experience can be exceedingly frustrating. That does indeed reduce the consistency of reports, even though when measured by repeat buying there seems to be minimal lasting effects. Frankly I think almost all Tesla owners, no matter how enthusiastic, do see service as a major weak point. I've argued that it will improve soon since 2014. It, thus far, seems not to have done so. The further one is form an easy service center the worse the problems is, or so it seems to me. FWIW, my car lives a ten minute walk from the nearest service center. I have had no issues other than lack of repair parts two years ago, and that was a gigantic frustration.

NOTE: As everyone who reads my posts knows I am happily long TSLA.

 

[Mo City]

Barring any huge macro negative, Clear blue sky for TSLA in short term, China's June delivery 15K, if it is quarterly run rate, current quarter(ending Sep), 50 K vehicles from China Giga, 100,000 from Fremont, 150 K vehicle, ASP probably around 45-50 K,Yahoo average estimate for revenue 7.14 B need to go up, 7.5 B from vehicle sales, 1.00 B other revenue, should be around 8.5B.

Indeed and if Troy is correct about MIC Model Ys commencing in Oct/Nov, 500k for Y2020 is inevitable (without a large macro downturn).

 

[Huskyf]

What's going on with TSLA$ 13$ down any news ?

 

[dc_h]

Now that June Model 3 delivery numbers are in for China, we can do some estimates:

Apr 3,635 + May 11,095 + June 14954 =
29,684 Model 3 deliveries in China for Q2 2020​

We also know from Tesla's Q2 P&D Report that there were about 80,050 Models 3/Y delivered World-wide, so about 50,366 outside China.

If we assume China production roughly equaled deliveries, then we can further estimate Fremont 3/Y production at 75,946 - 29,684 which is ~ 46,262 units for a shortened Q2.

Fremont had a maximum of 50 days of production (May 11 - Jun 30, except Memorial Day), and that includes any time required to ramp up production back to previous levels (which was 7K/wk).

So I estimate that in 2020 Q2 Tesla Fremont produced an average of 925 Model 3/Y per day, or 6,477 per week. Clearly the rampup happened very quickly, likely within the 1st week after resuming production. That's impressive.

Also, we know now that Model Y production was conducted in GA4 (aka "the Tent"), so that answers the question of whether Q2 Model Y production would be in addition to Model 3. It was not.

Recently pictures have emerged showing assembly work on a new Sprung structure ("Tent 2") being erected beside the GA4 tent. It's possible that this may be an addtional final assembly line, which would be addtional capacity being added for Model Y. or just provide svc support to increase the existing capacity for Q3:

So (speculating now), does a Sprung structure GA6 become the 1st assembly line at TeraTexas to add the next increment of Model Y capacity as quickly as possible? Tesla has demonstrated the ability to assemble these structures is 3 wks, and we know Elon's new planning mantra:

"If it's long, it's wrong. If it's tight, it's right."​

Cheers!

So nice of the SAF to provide us more bullish news. Whatever is going on in the new tent, implies Fremont will be increasing capacity again.
More Y? More 3? New Plaid assembly line? Roadster? Rave Cave for the staff?

 

[MP3Mike]

Anyone got odds for if Tesla announces the Q2 earnings call date after close today, for the 22nd, or if they wait until the 15th to announce it for the 29th? (In April it was the 15th/29th.)

 

[Knightshade]

Everything I've bolded from your post shows old school rigid thinking (you plan, execute to plan, then evaluate the results). Why can't they change their mind half-way through execution?

Because that's not what happened.

I'm not talking about a decision they announced, then reconsidered a few days, or weeks, or even months, later.

I'm talking about 3 solid years of missing their own publicly stated targets... by very wide margins.

That's either incompetence, over years.

Or they never were really aiming for those targets and only ever threw them out there to assuage range anxiety concerns, but weren't ever seriously planning to spend the money to reach those targets in those timelines.


They didn't change their mind halfway through 3 years of execution- they simply didn't do anything to execute to that schedule. Not half of the way, not any fraction of the way.

They just kept building at the same, slower-than-advertised, rate- without changing their ACTUAL execution schedule to match the one they kept announcing to the public.


Again- financially that's probably the right move for them to have made.... and would've addressed fear in potential customers that's largely grounded in anxiety and not reality as a bonus.

But it's not some kinda OMG INNOVATIVE MOVE FAST COMPANY CHANGED ITS MIND thing. It's a much simpler strategy than that- and it seems to have worked just fine.


Not EVERY move the company makes is 9th dimensional chess. Sometimes regular 4D works fine.

Remember Tesla's Q1 announcement that they were going to switch to online delivery only and shut down most of their stores? It wasn't lip service just because it didn't happen or wasn't to the same scale as announced. It was the realization that it wasn't as great of an idea as he thought.

Yeah- but that was reversed days later.

Not 3+ years later, during which they didn't legit work toward stated goals at all.

Whatever plans they announced in 2018, if it hasn't been re-iterated, assume it's been changed.

But they also missed the 2016 targets. And the 2017 ones. By a lot.

After they missed 2018 by a mile too, they didn't even bother announcing targets for 2019 or 2020.

Presumably because they were past the hump and no longer needed to give lip service to the range anxiety crowd since coverage was real-world "good enough" to not have to make it sound like expansion was gonna be WAY faster than it really would be like they'd been doing the previous 3 years.

 

[phantasms]

Anyone got odds for if Tesla announces the Q2 earnings call date after close today, for the 22nd, or if they wait until the 15th to announce it for the 29th? (In April it was the 15th/29th.)

FWIW My Yahoo app now says “14 days till earnings call”

 

[Jack6591]

Anyone got odds for if Tesla announces the Q2 earnings call date after close today, for the 22nd, or if they wait until the 15th to announce it for the 29th? (In April it was the 15th/29th.)

Last year, Tesla announced on Thursday 11 July.

 

[Silentk]

Anyone heard of Navigate Consulting?

Gordon "Bozo" Johnson quotes them today on a Yahoo finance video as a company that rates self-driving cars, and who list Tesla as dead last in autonomy

Just to fact-check I googled them and found nothing. Anyone here heard of them?

The video is titled "Tesla stock surge 'completely detached from reality" on Yahoo Finance homepage. the clip I mention is at 3m 20s.

thx.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

BTW, if the S&P Committee DID NOT included a full year profitable Tesla in its premier index, and Tesla declares a $2B profit in Q3 driving the SP well over $2K, then when the flood gates open, there will be carnage on an unprecented, Nader-esque, scale. IMHO.

Do you think a $2B profit is possible in Q3? If Tesla delivers 150k to 160k cars, that is 60k to 70k more than in Q1 and Q2, which were/will be slightly positive or break even. At an ASP of 50k and a margin of 25% that is an extra profit of $750 to $875M. Even if the ASP is higher or there are extra production efficiencies I don’t see them go higher than a $1B profit. Where do you see the other $1B come from?

Even a $1B quarterly profit would be huge and cause another big perception shift on Wall Street.

 

[Curt Renz]

Electrek - half hour ago: Tesla leads UK's 150% increase in electric car sales - Electrek