Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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ByeByeJohnny
Member
EDIT: Me and @ByeByeJohnny having the same idea at the same time
Haha, yeah the only thing I might not think come true from your post is the $0.1/mile cost.
Because the need for robotaxis would vary greatly over a 24 hour period it's not like all of them would be used for maximum mileage. Let's look at if each gets 100k miles of paid use each year. I personally think this is on the high side. If we then assume a three year usage as a robotaxi we get 300k miles. Three years is a lot. Most rental cars is much less and with multiple users each day wear and tear would likely be much higher for a robotaxi.
Anyway 300k miles would give only $30k over three years. Deduct electricity cost, wear and tear, cleaning, some taxes, the cost for that guy plugging them in when charging etc etc. Sure Tesla could probably sell the car for the build cost even after that but that won't leave much profit.
I doubt we'll ever see prices under $0.2/mile if even that. For semis doing perhaps 500-1000 miles a day the cost benefit compared today would be much more significant though. Enough to wipe out most other semis no being autonomous.
Yup stuck right between Facebook and Google.
Cities need regulations on the ratio of jobs / housing. You can choose to have a lot of both or a little of both, but the skewing just causes crippling traffic congestion and skewed house prices.
Artful Dodger
"Ducimus, lit"
TA like that is just showing the possibilities. I think it's even more likely that MMs have already staked out $1,400 for Friday's Close (per @Lycanthrope ) and that the Upper-BB will simply 'catch up' to the action. Since it's climbing about $40/day that could happen tomorrow. It was $1363.68 at today's Open: (look at the slope of the red curve)Upper BB is at 1357.11, I will just go out on a limb and say that’s our next stop. Paging @Artful Dodger for confirmation
I will note that this current break-out is the longest run in at least several years where the SP has stayed above the Upper-BB.
I think the large institutions and brokerages are accumulating in anticipation of TSLA's Earnings Report and a subsequent addtion into the S&P 500.
BTW, if the S&P Committee DID NOT included a full year profitable Tesla in its premier index, and Tesla declares a $2B profit in Q3 driving the SP well over $2K, then when the flood gates open, there will be carnage on an unprecented, Nader-esque, scale. IMHO.
EDIT: h/t to @Sudre for his excellent analysis at #177489 regarding MMs/Options Writers desired SP for Friday.
Cheers!
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This is the crux of the issue with Tesla's progress toward FSD that no one seems to talk about (not even in the FSD forum).
How big and complicated do the training systems and inference computers (e.g. HW3) need to be to handle the model that is sufficiently accurate for deployment?
The models that were being used were big but vanilla compared to other deep learning computer vision systems. The highest rated post ever at TMC breaks down in detail how Tesla improved their neural nets to take in not just 1 image snapshot, but 2 different time snapshots at a time!
This is kinda hilarious, because of course humans are processing in both 3d and accruing information over time. We are not independently looking at second by second snapshots of the road not considering what we saw the second before.
What Tesla needs is a 3d model (looks like they are there) and also one that considers say the last 3 seconds of images. At 30 fps that's like 100 images (instead of the 2 that they were using). That would require making the networks 50 times larger ignoring any architecture changes, which would be a behemoth to train and who knows if it would fit on HW3.0.
I'm sure Tesla will figure out to make the network as efficient as possible. When they are considering at least the last 3 seconds of a 3d scene, I will get more confident that they can get to FSD. They will have the data to train it. I just wonder how big that model will be...
Benzinga - today: Tesla's Climbing Stock Makes Employees Rich, Elon Musk Richest
And me...don't forget about me!
Christine600
Supporting Member
420%
I logged on my app today to look at my TSLA shares. Since I may sell a few eventually to make downpayment when financing a home. Surprised at how few I have to sell if it comes to that.
Then it registered - my TSLA is up 420%
And I've never smoked anything in my life!
I logged on my app today to look at my TSLA shares. Since I may sell a few eventually to make downpayment when financing a home. Surprised at how few I have to sell if it comes to that.
Then it registered - my TSLA is up 420%
And I've never smoked anything in my life! Electrek - today: Tesla captures bigger chunk of China EV market - Electrek
Benzinga - today: Tesla Model 3 Takes 23% of Chinese EV Market In June
Benzinga - today: Tesla Model 3 Takes 23% of Chinese EV Market In June
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Tes La Ferrari
Member
OT,
How about "sending" the car ahead of your flight the night before, with all your luggage (and then some), and it shows up at the airport to pick you up, right? Sleep secured.
I don't know if I can enjoy travel in an ICE vehicle, so I would do this. We're even talking about our next drive to Canada vs flying. Face it, driving is just plain fun and easy now. Hopefully by then they'll turn on Netflix while driving...
None of this is fantasy!
Buckminster
Active Member
Jeez - I'm sticking to my 1500s. These high priced calls are incredibly expensive.
Jun21 1500s - $360 = $1860 breakeven - medium risk
Jun21 1800s - $287 = $2087 breakeven - high risk
Jun21 2800s - $153 = $2953 breakeven - V high risk
I drove to Canada two Novembers ago. Not a problem--fun trip. I don't fly unless there is a large body of water between myself and my destination.
TA like that is just showing the possibilities. I think it's even more likely that MMs have already staked out $1,400 for Friday's Close (per @Lycanthrope ) and that the Upper-BB will simply 'catch up' to the action. Since it's going up about $65/day that could happen tomorrow. It was $1363.68 at today's Open: (look how fast it's climbing)
View attachment 562022
I will note that this current break-out is the longest run in at least several years where the SP has stayed above the Upper-BB.
I think the large institutions and brokerages are accumulating in anticipation of TSLA's Earnings Report and a subsequent addtion into the S&P 500.
BTW, if the S&P Committee DID NOT included a full year profitable Tesla in its premier index, and Tesla declares a $2B profit in Q3 driving the SP well over $2K, then when the flood gates open, there will be carnage on an unprecented, Nader-esque, scale. IMHO.
Cheers!
I'm just curious, the BBands are symmetrical, so the lower BB represents an area more likely to be visited? Why wouldn't it lift up?
It's been down a bit now. Earlier today must be up 420.69%Then it registered - my TSLA is up 420%
willow_hiller
Active Member
Sounds like we've got another Goldman price target. Up to $1,300 from $950 by analyst David Tamberrino. Neutral rating.
Tesla (TSLA) gets $1,300 price target from Goldman Sachs bear
Tesla (TSLA) gets $1,300 price target from Goldman Sachs bear
Not sure that is the correct assumption. I had some $1400s yesterday and sold them because I thought the climb had stalled. So when I sold them I had closed my position. Sure there could still be lots of open positions, but if I had any more 1400 Calls purchased, I'd be selling them into any climbs to maximize my return since it certainly looks like the MM's are aiming for a $1400 close that would mean the $55 I got yesterday turns into $0 on Friday. I'm sure I wasn't the only call holder in this position.
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Makes one wonder at what point we will stray too far away from fundamentals. If a big chunk of that $2B is one-time deferred tax income, shouldn't market largely ignore it?TA like that is just showing the possibilities. I think it's even more likely that MMs have already staked out $1,400 for Friday's Close (per @Lycanthrope ) and that the Upper-BB will simply 'catch up' to the action. Since it's going up about $65/day that could happen tomorrow. It was $1363.68 at today's Open: (look how fast it's climbing)
View attachment 562022
I will note that this current break-out is the longest run in at least several years where the SP has stayed above the Upper-BB.
I think the large institutions and brokerages are accumulating in anticipation of TSLA's Earnings Report and a subsequent addtion into the S&P 500.
BTW, if the S&P Committee DID NOT included a full year profitable Tesla in its premier index, and Tesla declares a $2B profit in Q3 driving the SP well over $2K, then when the flood gates open, there will be carnage on an unprecented, Nader-esque, scale. IMHO.
Cheers!
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