Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

TA like that is just showing the possibilities. I think it's even more likely that MMs have already staked out $1,400 for Friday's Close (per @Lycanthrope ) and that the Upper-BB will simply 'catch up' to the action. Since it's going up about $65/day that could happen tomorrow. It was $1363.68 at today's Open: (look how fast it's climbing)

View attachment 562022
I will note that this current break-out is the longest run in at least several years where the SP has stayed above the Upper-BB.

I think the large institutions and brokerages are accumulating in anticipation of TSLA's Earnings Report and a subsequent addtion into the S&P 500.

BTW, if the S&P Committee DID NOT included a full year profitable Tesla in its premier index, and Tesla declares a $2B profit in Q3 driving the SP well over $2K, then when the flood gates open, there will be carnage on an unprecented, Nader-esque, scale. IMHO.

Cheers!

I'm just curious, the BBands are symmetrical, so the lower BB represents an area more likely to be visited? Why wouldn't it lift up?

 

[Fobble]

Then it registered - my TSLA is up 420%

And I've never smoked anything in my life!

It's been down a bit now. Earlier today must be up 420.69%

 

[willow_hiller]

Sounds like we've got another Goldman price target. Up to $1,300 from $950 by analyst David Tamberrino. Neutral rating.

Tesla (TSLA) gets $1,300 price target from Goldman Sachs bear

 

[ZenMan]

I am trying to catch up with posts but they keep running ahead as fast as I get time to read.

The 1400 strike Call options have an interesting message between yesterday and today.
Yesterday we opened with about 6500 Calls with a strike price of $1400.
Today we woke up to 5400 Calls with a strike of $1400.
THEY are covering.

That info tells me THEY are scared and don't trust they can hold it down. We can see signs they are working hard to push it down. I think these last few days they are working really hard to drop the price and it's not working for them. Be warned the reason I am not betting on $1400 being the top is because THEY seem nervous. $1400 is where they want it. Can they hold it?

Not sure that is the correct assumption. I had some $1400s yesterday and sold them because I thought the climb had stalled. So when I sold them I had closed my position. Sure there could still be lots of open positions, but if I had any more 1400 Calls purchased, I'd be selling them into any climbs to maximize my return since it certainly looks like the MM's are aiming for a $1400 close that would mean the $55 I got yesterday turns into $0 on Friday. I'm sure I wasn't the only call holder in this position.

 

[dl003]

TA like that is just showing the possibilities. I think it's even more likely that MMs have already staked out $1,400 for Friday's Close (per @Lycanthrope ) and that the Upper-BB will simply 'catch up' to the action. Since it's going up about $65/day that could happen tomorrow. It was $1363.68 at today's Open: (look how fast it's climbing)

View attachment 562022
I will note that this current break-out is the longest run in at least several years where the SP has stayed above the Upper-BB.

I think the large institutions and brokerages are accumulating in anticipation of TSLA's Earnings Report and a subsequent addtion into the S&P 500.

BTW, if the S&P Committee DID NOT included a full year profitable Tesla in its premier index, and Tesla declares a $2B profit in Q3 driving the SP well over $2K, then when the flood gates open, there will be carnage on an unprecented, Nader-esque, scale. IMHO.

Cheers!

Makes one wonder at what point we will stray too far away from fundamentals. If a big chunk of that $2B is one-time deferred tax income, shouldn't market largely ignore it?

 

[Curt Renz]

MarketWatch - today: Tesla at $2,000 is new ‘bull case’ for Morgan Stanley

 

[SOULPEDL]

This is the crux of the issue with Tesla's progress toward FSD that no one seems to talk about (not even in the FSD forum).

How big and complicated do the training systems and inference computers (e.g. HW3) need to be to handle the model that is sufficiently accurate for deployment?

The models that were being used were big but vanilla compared to other deep learning computer vision systems. The highest rated post ever at TMC breaks down in detail how Tesla improved their neural nets to take in not just 1 image snapshot, but 2 different time snapshots at a time!

This is kinda hilarious, because of course humans are processing in both 3d and accruing information over time. We are not independently looking at second by second snapshots of the road not considering what we saw the second before.

What Tesla needs is a 3d model (looks like they are there) and also one that considers say the last 3 seconds of images. At 30 fps that's like 100 images (instead of the 2 that they were using). That would require making the networks 50 times larger ignoring any architecture changes, which would be a behemoth to train and who knows if it would fit on HW3.0.

I'm sure Tesla will figure out to make the network as efficient as possible. When they are considering at least the last 3 seconds of a 3d scene, I will get more confident that they can get to FSD. They will have the data to train it. I just wonder how big that model will be...

I'm talking out of my a** here, but I also think in 3D so I have some experience
If I saw something 3 seconds ago, I wouldn't need memory of the entire 3D scene, I would only need the relevant info as it relates to the scene. "A car is coming"... so just need to calculate intersect potential and iterate with that focus. And Focus is key here, which comes with experience (and more FSD sales $$$).

 

[oldTAVguy]

Sounds like we've got another Goldman price target. Up to $1,300 from $950 by analyst David Tamberrino. Neutral rating.

Tesla (TSLA) gets $1,300 price target from Goldman Sachs bear

Mark Delaney is not a bear and not a bull, has been a buyer and a holder.

 

[ClimateOptimst]

I know everyone's getting all excited and frothy, but unless something dramatic happens, we're closing just below $1400 this week.

Yesterday was a fine example of the MM's capability - 20m shares traded, yet they capped the stock most of the day...

I'm willing to compromise with the MMs getting a few caps in in exchange for us being +40% every few weeks

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

I'm just curious, the BBands are symmetrical, so the lower BB represents an area more likely to be visited? Why wouldn't it lift up?

The bands are not symetrical. The channel between them can widen of tighten. When the stock moves up a lot the upper BB moves up a lot but the lower BB moves down a lot, widening the gap between them. A period of little stock movement will result in the two bands moving closer together.

 

[Tslynk67]

I am trying to catch up with posts but they keep running ahead as fast as I get time to read.

The 1400 strike Call options have an interesting message between yesterday and today.
Yesterday we opened with about 6500 Calls with a strike price of $1400.
Today we woke up to 5400 Calls with a strike of $1400.
THEY are covering.

That info tells me THEY are scared and don't trust they can hold it down. We can see signs they are working hard to push it down. I think these last few days they are working really hard to drop the price and it's not working for them. Be warned the reason I am not betting on $1400 being the top is because THEY seem nervous. $1400 is where they want it. Can they hold it?

Well the sellers have to want to sell too, so it can also be the converse - we see that it's being capped below $1400, so take the money out before it's destroyed by time-decay.

Not sure that is the correct assumption. I had some $1400s yesterday and sold them because I thought the climb had stalled. So when I sold them I had closed my position. Sure there could still be lots of open positions, but if I had any more 1400 Calls purchased, I'd be selling them into any climbs to maximize my return since it certainly looks like the MM's are aiming for a $1400 close that would mean the $55 I got yesterday turns into $0 on Friday. I'm sure I wasn't the only call holder in this position.

Yeah, what he said

 

[Artful Dodger]

Very informative post @Artful Dodger.

please elaborate on what you mean by this.

Usualy the tail don't wag the dog. If S&P waits too long, TSLA will enter the NDX in the top ten equities by weight. This would require a seismic volume of cash to be moved into TSLA.

Ralph Nader whined about Tesla triggering a collapse of the market in TV interviews he did back on about Jan 30. If the S&P Committee wants to play 'little dutch buoy' and keep their finger in the dyke, it'll be 'well howdy' when she finally cracks and blows out.

Personally, I don't see them trying to prevent or delay the inevitable. Nor do I see them doing it early if for some unforseen reason eligibility were to be delayed. I think they play by their own rules, duck, and cover. It's the smart move.

Cheers!

 

[tinm]

OT but interesting for market sentiment

Just had the locksmith at the house to fix a door/lock in the garage. He was here a year ago. Always gets excited when he sees the Model S. He noticed I had a brand-new one this time and we got to talking.

And that's when he shared his views on the company--views entirely coming from his exposure to the media:
• It's too bad the company is having such financial difficulties
• "It's all about the taxes"
• "They're doing all kinds of things so as not to get hit with taxes"
• Oh, and the "subsidies" keyword was mentioned, of course

His general tone was, such a shame the company's going under. The implication was, why would you buy ANOTHER Tesla knowing the company's going down the tubes.

I did my best to assure him the company is actually in pretty good shape, and in fact is now the most valuable automaker in the entire world, more valuable than even Toyota. You could see the blank expression on his face, like my statement went right past his ears--it didn't faze him one bit. He just reiterated the dire-straits financial condition of the company, etc. Completely brainwashed.

As Spock would say, it was "fascinating" to observe. Though, exasperating. I could not convince him that his views were, shall we say, in error. It was like talking to someone who'd hung out for beers with Mark Spiegel or Gordon Johnson and all they talked about was Tesla, and now his head was full of information that he assumed was true.

 

[mongo]

The bands are not symetrical. The channel between them can widen of tighten. When the stock moves up a lot the upper BB moves up a lot but the lower BB moves down a lot, widening the gap between them. A period of little stock movement will result in the two bands moving closer together.

Aren't the bands two standard deviations offset from the average, and thus symmetric about the average?

Bollinger Band®

@SOULPEDL , If viewed on a log chart, the low band will look larger.

Edit, also when the stock price is moving up rapidly, the standard deviation increases which pushes the lower band down. Depending on the rate, the lower can stay flat or even go lower as the stock goes up.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'm just curious, the BBands are symmetrical, so the lower BB represents an area more likely to be visited? Why wouldn't it lift up?

hmm, I don't think they are symetric, and I'm def. not the one to ask. Maybe start by reading the Wiki page? There's a math formula, and I bet there's vidz on Youtube explaining the details in a palatable form. Let us know what you find.

If not, that'd be a great name for a buoy band, wot?

Good luck, and enjoy!

Cheers!

 

[SOULPEDL]

Aren't the bands two standard deviations offset from the average, and thus symmetric about the average?

Bollinger Band®

@SOULPEDL , If viewed on a log chart, the low band will look larger.

So it's all probability related, but why would risk increase to the downside as well. I think this is deceiving and doesn't represent probability correctly. I'm in favor of a new indicator.

 

[Singuy]

And yet they had the choice of not buying a Tesla until a service center near enough to them to not cause inconvenience was built.

It’s really that simple. No excuse to feel inconvenienced when the choice was their’s to make. Personal responsibility and all that good stuff, you know?

Or a service center may never exist due to the state banning Tesla from selling cars. Also you cant blame the person who bought the car when Tesla had the service issue. The point of a good company is to exceed people's expectations, not to be underwhelmed and then get blamed for being at fault for buying the product.

 

[ggr]

I'm just curious, the BBands are symmetrical, so the lower BB represents an area more likely to be visited? Why wouldn't it lift up?

I guess a lot of people don't understand the bands. The middle line is just the moving average of the stock price, over whatever period you choose. The other statistic that can be easily calculated from the same observations is the variance and standard deviation (SD is just the square root of the variance). The outer bands are drawn two standard deviations out from the moving average. When, as now, the actual price deviates a lot from the moving average, the standard deviation widens at both sides.

I think (without trying to prove it) that whenever the stock price is outside a Bollinger Band, the increase in standard deviation will be such that the opposite band will move in the opposite direction faster than it moves with the stock price. Hence what you have observed.

One observation about your "most likely": if stock prices were distributed as "standard normal", you'd expect 67% of them to be within the bands. However, (a) they aren't, and (b) that's only history, not prediction.

Edit: I originally wrote "one standard deviation". This is a parameter you can choose, but what most people see by default is two.
Further edit: for two standard deviations, you expect 95% of observations to be inside. I corrected one thing but not both. arrgghh.

 

[Ratanpara]

Barring any huge macro negative, Clear blue sky for TSLA in short term, China's June delivery 15K, if it is quarterly run rate, current quarter(ending Sep), 50 K vehicles from China Giga, 100,000 from Fremont, 150 K vehicle, ASP probably around 45-50 K,Yahoo average estimate for revenue 7.14 B need to go up, 7.5 B from vehicle sales, 1.00 B other revenue, should be around 8.5B.

 

[tinm]

And yet they had the choice of not buying a Tesla until a service center near enough to them to not cause inconvenience was built.

It’s really that simple. No excuse to feel inconvenienced when the choice was their’s to make. Personal responsibility and all that good stuff, you know?

I've been hesitant to speak up about all this chatter about service, because in the past, whenever I did, the moderators deleted my posts and threatened to ban me from TMC.

I'll just say it is pointless to discuss service in this thread, and maybe anywhere on TMC in general, given the prevailing attitudes. You can't win. But for those owners/investors new to this experience, and frustrated by it, know that there are others out there who sympathize and have been there, done that.

And now, watch this post be deleted by the thought police in 3... 2... 1...