Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Buckminster]

In for another 10 during today's flash sale at $1575

That's immoral - think of the funds that could have bought those 10 shares if you hadn't been so greedy. Poor liquidity is on you now.

 

[Krugerrand]

Tesla could soon join the S&P 500 — but inclusion isn't automatic, even with a full year of profitability

The backroom dealers will do all in their power to try to slow this down.
If S&P doesn't add Tesla, then S&P might lag Tesla

The drama just never ends. But I have been leaning this way all along simply because many are so sure and not even contemplating the option that Tesla will be at best ‘delayed’ entry.

I’m actually prepared mentally for the poo show that occurs if Tesla is denied entry all together. As I’ve said before I do love a good all hell breaking loose. It shows what people are really made of and all about. The only thing comparable to revealing the truth about a person is being left alone on an island to fend for themselves or playing a game of Survivor.

S&P inclusion to me can be a lot like the string of absent upgrades from Moody’s.

 

[Rammstein]

My belief is that most of TSLA's $600 price appreciation since Q2 deliveries were announced is due to S&P 500 front-running. Everything else is in the noise.

If you really think Battery Day is creating multiple hundreds of dollars worth of TSLA share price, then you need to go back and see how Autonomy Day went for the stock. At best, Mr. Market's expectation is that Tesla can use the same million mile batteries that CATL will sell to other OEMs.

And I'm surprised I have to say this, but note that I'm expressing my opinion of the value, I'm expressing my opinion of Mr Market's opinion.

I see what you are saying. Though the Market can be pretty dumb I think battery day is something more tangible to the market than autonomy day which most didn’t understand. Market will also start to realize Tesla’s higher margins on their cars. We got to give them a tiny bit of credit.

 

[Todd Burch]

My belief is that most of TSLA's $600 price appreciation since Q2 deliveries were announced is due to S&P 500 front-running. Everything else is in the noise.

If you really think Battery Day is creating multiple hundreds of dollars worth of TSLA share price, then you need to go back and see how Autonomy Day went for the stock. At best, Mr. Market's expectation is that Tesla can use the same million mile batteries that CATL will sell to other OEMs.

And I'm surprised I have to say this, but note that I'm not expressing my opinion of the value, I'm expressing my opinion of Mr Market's opinion.

The difference is autonomy day was a demonstration of what they HOPE to achieve. Limited test drives under controlled conditions, lots of technical talk about board speeds and AI approaches...but not enough to see. We already know most analysts have a complete inability to visualize the future. To many FSD seems far-fetched.

Everything we've heard about battery day is that it will be a demonstration. Working product right there. Harder to turn that into some nebulous aspiration for the future.

 

[Motor Mouth]

Really? How so?

Let’s take two scenarios

Yours:
1) Tesla grows at 50% / year while cutting prices 5% / year
2020: 500k vehicles.
2021: 750k vehicles
2022: 1.125M vehicles sold
2023: 1.7M
2024: 2.55M

Now all those additional vehicle sales in your scenario come from existing automakers. They are damaged on a 1 for 1 vehicle basis for each sale lost to Tesla.

Now let’s examine my scenario
Tesla grows at 50% / year keeping prices exactly the same:
2020: 500k vehicles.
2021: 750k vehicles
2022: 1.125M vehicles sold
2023: 1.7M
2024: 2.55M

‘Notice how the existing manufacturers lost the same exact number of sales whether Tesla cut prices or not?

It really only takes one scenario. You undercut your competition to drive them out of business. Pretty simple really. Price has been one of the only legitimate reasons many people haven't seriously considered an EV.

 

[Unpilot]

I’m actually prepared mentally for the poo show

Just like a cat

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Haha ok, this is one wild ride. And here I was thinking not much would happen until after earnings.

 

[Curt Renz]

I still believe today is a head fake.

The likely addition of TSLA into the S&P 500 should calm much of the manipulation and volatility. Steadier share price growth would likely attract more buy-and-hold institutions and individuals.

 

[Maxstorz]

If you buy TSLA stock after earning calls do you fall in the investor category instead of speculative

 

[oldTAVguy]

That's immoral - think of the funds that could have bought those 10 shares if you hadn't been so greedy. Poor liquidity is on you now.

Took some at 1570 to 1560

 

[Mo City]

My belief is that most of TSLA's $600 price appreciation since Q2 deliveries were announced is due to S&P 500 front-running. Everything else is in the noise.

If you really think Battery Day is creating multiple hundreds of dollars worth of TSLA share price, then you need to go back and see how Autonomy Day went for the stock. At best, Mr. Market's expectation is that Tesla can use the same million mile batteries that CATL will sell to other OEMs.

And I'm surprised I have to say this, but note that I'm not expressing my opinion of the value, I'm expressing my opinion of Mr Market's opinion.

I believe it is likely Battery Day will offer more digestible information for the market than Autonomy Day. That's assuming numbers are given for one or all of costs, production ramp, density, charging speed, etc. Autonomy Day was a waste of time IMO because the concepts were far too nebulous and incomprehensible.

The million mile battery talk is overrated because it doesn't really add much value IMO. I read somewhere nobody (including Tesla) wants CATL's million mile batteries because they cost more and Chinese consumers won't pay extra for them. I'm sure CATL will let everyone know when someone actually buys them.

 

[Todd Burch]

There was obvious manipulation at the opening today IMO, but for the rest of the day it looks like TSLA just rode down with the macros. NASDAQ and FAANGs ended ~1 to 2% in the red today...and with Tesla's usual 1-2x beta, that seems not that unusual.

 

[heltok]

When can we expect the letter?

 

[UnknownSoldier]

When can we expect the letter?

Tomorrow after the close. There's still another day of this before the report.

 

[Runarbt]

Did Elon give a hint on twitter that Tesla isnt ready for SP500 yet?

His tweet in german that the baby doesnt use a spoon yet.

 

[jhm]

How 'bout we juss camp out at $1570 for a while?

 

[Krugerrand]

Really? How so?

Let’s take two scenarios

Yours:
1) Tesla grows at 50% / year while cutting prices 5% / year
2020: 500k vehicles.
2021: 750k vehicles
2022: 1.125M vehicles sold
2023: 1.7M
2024: 2.55M

Now all those additional vehicle sales in your scenario come from existing automakers. They are damaged on a 1 for 1 vehicle basis for each sale lost to Tesla.

Now let’s examine my scenario
Tesla grows at 50% / year keeping prices exactly the same:
2020: 500k vehicles.
2021: 750k vehicles
2022: 1.125M vehicles sold
2023: 1.7M
2024: 2.55M

‘Notice how the existing manufacturers lost the same exact number of sales whether Tesla cut prices or not?

That’s not exactly how it works. Think more; I’ll make my current ICE car last until I can afford an EV, or until my order for an EV can be filled, or like dealerships are doing now - give me a vehicle at 2010 price point with 0 down and no interest and I don’t have to make my first payment for 6-12 months. That’s a recipe for success, eh?

I know you can’t fathom what’s coming, but it’s still coming.

 

[JusRelax]

Dumb or genius?

 

[ABCTG]

True, I forgot that one, although the insurance side doesn't really seem to be much of a moneymaker for them. Maybe someone who's looked at the financial details can correct me, but Tesla seems to instead use their insurance advantage to lower rates in order to increase sales, not as a profit center.

I think Tesla mentioned that providing insurance was to keep the other insurers honest. So the other auto insurers couldn't charge excessive rates with some excuse like "it's all brand new technology and, these newfangled electronic vehicle are more expensive to repair."

 

[DutchDriver]

I wouldnt be total supprised when we end friday just on 1600
dont expect too much firework