Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

Sorry y'all S&P inclusion IS OVER!

Tesla could soon join the S&P 500 — but inclusion isn't automatic, even with a full year of profitability

Lol

 

[Todd Burch]

I can agree with most of those.

None of them, however, justify a $2,000 price on the basis of a good 2020 Q3 in Mr. Market's eyes, as has been claimed.

I will agree with you that 2020 Q3 results *ALONE* do not justify $2000.

However, I think this pandemic has helped the market realize what's happening. As likely the only automaker with a profit in a pandemic when half of the quarter's production was shut down, the market is starting to realize there's something special here. That, battery day, and S&P500 inclusion, are likely the drivers of the recent price movement. But many invest for the future potential of a company, and the world is finally just starting to see it after years of blindness at Tesla's potential.

Market is saying they want to purchase shares in the company showing potential BEFORE all of that potential manifests itself. Otherwise, they missed the boat.

 

[jerry33]

No vacation this year? Maybe time to buy that shiny Tesla.

That would be one heck of a vacation.

 

[ZsoZso]

Yesterday afternoon I received an interesting phone call from Fidelity (where I have an IRA account). I have had an IRA account with them for 12 years. Last year I moved all my investment into TSLA. Keep in mind I have never received a phone call from them in the past, never.

So the phone call goes like this:
Fidelity: We notice you have all of your investment in TSLA. Why?
Me: Because I have done my research and I in believe in this company.
Fidelity: Would you like to talk to one of our experts about diversifying?
Me: Nope. I am all set.
Fidelity: We strongly suggest you talk to our experts about diversifying?
Me: Look, this is my money and I can invests it any way I want to. If I need any help I will reach out to you. Thanks for the offer.
Fidelity: But sir, we understand that..............
Me: Good bye (I hang up)

Has this happened to anyone else? Why would they be so concerned about my investment strategy?

They do not like seeing that your portfolio outperforms their experts' by several fold. If other customers get wind of this that would ruin their business... So they want you to stop, because you are making them look very bad (in terms of financial performance).

 

[Steve m]

I can agree with most of those.

None of them, however, justify a $2,000 price on the basis of a good 2020 Q3 in Mr. Market's eyes, as has been claimed.

How much are all the car manufacturers, dealership networks, service centers worth?

How much are all the gas stations, refineries, oil transportation, refineries worth.

How much are the insurance companies worth?

How much are the internet service providers worth including the cellular services?

I am pretty sure a lot more then the company that is coming in and taking a sizeable percentage of each.

 

[Todd Burch]

Tesla insurance. This is also huge as they can get access to video for the accident, see how responsible drivers are, etc.

True, I forgot that one, although the insurance side doesn't really seem to be much of a moneymaker for them. Maybe someone who's looked at the financial details can correct me, but Tesla seems to instead use their insurance advantage to lower rates in order to increase sales, not as a profit center.

 

[Todd Burch]

He has '2' buttholes??

Regular one, and his mouth, because a lot of crap spews from it.

 

[kbM3]

Price cuts can also be strategic to make it more costly for other manufacturers to compete

^^^ This

Really? How so?

Let’s take two scenarios

Yours:
1) Tesla grows at 50% / year while cutting prices 5% / year
2020: 500k vehicles.
2021: 750k vehicles
2022: 1.125M vehicles sold
2023: 1.7M
2024: 2.55M

Now all those additional vehicle sales in your scenario come from existing automakers. They are damaged on a 1 for 1 vehicle basis for each sale lost to Tesla.

Now let’s examine my scenario
Tesla grows at 50% / year keeping prices exactly the same:
2020: 500k vehicles.
2021: 750k vehicles
2022: 1.125M vehicles sold
2023: 1.7M
2024: 2.55M

‘Notice how the existing manufacturers lost the same exact number of sales whether Tesla cut prices or not?

 

[kengchang]

Really? How so?

Let’s take two scenarios

Yours:
1) Tesla grows at 50% / year while cutting prices 5% / year
2020: 500k vehicles.
2021: 750k vehicles
2022: 1.125M vehicles sold
2023: 1.7M
2024: 2.55M

Now all those additional vehicle sales in your scenario come from existing automakers. They are damaged on a 1 for 1 vehicle basis for each sale lost to Tesla.

Now let’s examine my scenario
Tesla grows at 50% / year keeping prices exactly the same:
2020: 500k vehicles.
2021: 750k vehicles
2022: 1.125M vehicles sold
2023: 1.7M
2024: 2.55M

‘Notice how the existing manufacturers lost the same exact number of sales whether Tesla cut prices or not?

That's assuming Tesla is supply constrained which won't be the case going forward.

 

[jhm]

I closed out my covered calls today. So $1600 could mark the top for the next couple of years.

 

[Big Time]

Is this going to land on 1500.00 again...

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

I have about $500 - $1000 each sitting in cash in multiple accounts that can't be transferred to 1 account (without triggering negative tax consequences)

My brokerage doesn't do fractional shares so can't do that.

I was going to buy ARKK, for the TSLA exposure - or another innovative company rather than sitting in cash.

I found these ETF's that contain TSLA

https://www.etf.com/stock/TSLA

Wondering what fellow TMC'ers do in this situation. Any recommendations to get more innovative growth exposure like TSLA or fractional TSLA via ETF?

 

[PeterJA]

It is sad to not understand how much energy there is between Tesla and SpaceX.... FWIW, they are the ones who gave us proprietary inconel in 2015 and proprietary aluminum in 2020. Materials advances by themselves justify a stunningly high valuation.

Elon just tweeted: "We’re rapidly changing alloy constituents & forming methods [for Starship], so traditional names like 304L will become more of an approximation"

Asked if the alloy for Cybertruck is changing too, he said yes.

 

[Zaxxon]

FYI, SP fine before I entered dentist office, got teeth cleaned the old fashion way because that’s how they do it now, walk out of office a big drop in SP.

Today’s informative message: floss more and skip your dentist cleaning appointments until further notice.

I was also at the dentist at that time. Sorry, folks. In future I will sacrifice the teeth, or at least schedule far apart from major TSLA events...

 

[Mo City]

Really? How so?

Let’s take two scenarios

Yours:
1) Tesla grows at 50% / year while cutting prices 5% / year
2020: 500k vehicles.
2021: 750k vehicles
2022: 1.125M vehicles sold
2023: 1.7M
2024: 2.55M

Now all those additional vehicle sales in your scenario come from existing automakers. They are damaged on a 1 for 1 vehicle basis for each sale lost to Tesla.

Now let’s examine my scenario
Tesla grows at 50% / year keeping prices exactly the same:
2020: 500k vehicles.
2021: 750k vehicles
2022: 1.125M vehicles sold
2023: 1.7M
2024: 2.55M

‘Notice how the existing manufacturers lost the same exact number of sales whether Tesla cut prices or not?

Your 2021 estimate is low. I expect more like 1.1M. Will double 2020 which was slowed by C-19.

 

[jerry33]

Really? How so?
‘Notice how the existing manufacturers lost the same exact number of sales whether Tesla cut prices or not?

The barrier to entry was raised making it much harder for other manufacturers to create a competing product.

 

[Todd Burch]

I still believe today is a head fake.

 

[lafrisbee]

Way too many good points, can't give Like, Love, Information and Helpful at the same time.

usually in that case a "Disagree" is my go to.

 

[Maxstorz]

I feel like buying more

I see in the $1500 as a discount

Wtf is going on

 

[CanadaEV]

Suddenly FSD is a legitimate short term goal in the MSM sector, pretty much a done deal... because it's Amazon+Zoox and not Tesla
Amazon Just Put Tesla On Notice